Effectiveness of using representative subsets of global climate models in future crop yield projections.

Representative subsets of global climate models (GCMs) are often used in climate change impact studies to account for uncertainty in ensemble climate projections. However, the effectiveness of such subsets has seldom been assessed for the estimations of either the mean or the spread of the full ensembles. We assessed two different approaches that were employed to select 5 GCMs from a 20-member ensemble of GCMs from the CMIP5 ensemble for projecting canola and spring wheat yields across Canada under RCP 4.5 and 8.5 emission scenarios in the periods 2040-2069 and 2070-2099, based on crop simulation models. Averages and spreads of the simulated crop yields using the 5-GCM subsets selected by T&P and KKZ approaches were compared with the full 20-GCM ensemble. Our results showed that the 5-GCM subsets selected by the two approaches could produce full-ensemble means with a relative absolute error of 2.9 – 4.7% for canola and 1.5 – 2.2% for spring wheat, and covers 61.8 – 91.1% and 66.1 – 80.8% of the full-ensemble spread for canola and spring wheat, respectively. Our results also demonstrated that both approaches were very likely to outperform a subset of randomly selected 5 GCMs in terms of a smaller error and a larger range

Rheumatoid Factor as a Potentiator of Anti–Citrullinated Protein Antibody–Mediated Inflammation in Rheumatoid Arthritis

Objective. The co-occurrence of rheumatoid factor (RF) and anti–citrullinated protein antibody (ACPA) positivity in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is well described. However, the mechanisms underlying the potential interaction between these 2 distinct autoantibodies have not been well defined. The aim of this study was to evaluate the epidemiologic and molecular interaction of ACPAs and RF and its association with both disease activity and measures of RA-associated inflammation. Methods. In a cohort of 1,488 US veterans with RA, measures of disease activity and serum levels of cytokines and multiplex ACPAs were compared between the following groups of patients: double-negative (anti–cyclic citrullinated peptide [anti-CCP]-/RF-), anti-CCP+/RF-, anti-CCP-/RF+, or double-positive (anti-CCP+/RF+). Additional studies were performed using an in vitro immune complex (IC) stimulation assay in which macrophages were incubated with ACPA ICs in the presence or absence of monoclonal IgM-RF, and tumor necrosis factor α production measured as a readout of macrophage activation. Results. Compared with the double-negative subgroup (as well as each single-positive subgroup), the double-positive subgroup exhibited higher disease activity as well as higher levels of C-reactive protein and inflammatory cytokines (all P \u3c 0.001). In vitro stimulation of macrophages by ACPA ICs increased cytokine production, and the addition of monoclonal IgM-RF significantly increased macrophage tumor necrosis factor α production (P = 0.003 versus ACPA ICs alone). Conclusion. The combined presence of ACPAs and IgM-RF mediates increased proinflammatory cytokine production in vitro and is associated with increased systemic inflammation and disease activity in RA. Our data suggest that IgM-RF enhances the capacity of ACPA ICs to stimulate macrophage cytokine production, thereby providing a mechanistic link by which RF enhances the pathogenicity of ACPA ICs in RA

Search for Gravitational Waves Associated with 39 Gamma-Ray Bursts Using Data from the Second, Third, and Fourth LIGO Runs

We present the results of a search for short-duration gravitational-wave bursts associated with 39 gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) detected by gamma-ray satellite experiments during LIGO's S2, S3, and S4 science runs. The search involves calculating the crosscorrelation between two interferometer data streams surrounding the GRB trigger time. We search for associated gravitational radiation from single GRBs, and also apply statistical tests to search for a gravitational-wave signature associated with the whole sample. For the sample examined, we find no evidence for the association of gravitational radiation with GRBs, either on a single-GRB basis or on a statistical basis. Simulating gravitational-wave bursts with sine-gaussian waveforms, we set upper limits on the root-sum-square of the gravitational-wave strain amplitude of such waveforms at the times of the GRB triggers. We also demonstrate how a sample of several GRBs can be used collectively to set constraints on population models. The small number of GRBs and the significant change in sensitivity of the detectors over the three runs, however, limits the usefulness of a population study for the S2, S3, and S4 runs. Finally, we discuss prospects for the search sensitivity for the ongoing S5 run, and beyond for the next generation of detectors.Comment: 24 pages, 10 figures, 14 tables; minor changes to text and Fig. 2; accepted by Phys. Rev.