Resource Price Turbulence and Macroeconomic Adjustment for a Resource Exporter: a conceptual framework for policy analysis

Increased global demand for energy and other resources, particularly from the rapidly developing economies of China and India and the opening up of global resource markets to global investors and speculative activity, has resulted in considerable recent turbulence in resource prices. The recent magnitude of change in resource prices, both positive and negative, and their macroeconomic implications is of considerable contemporary importance to both resource importing and exporting economies. For a resource exporting economy, such as that of Australia, the recent resource price boom has resulted in: increased government taxation revenue, increased employment and wages in the resource and resource related sectors, increased spending in the domestic economy that contributed to buoyant economic growth, increased resource exports to the booming economies of China and India and contributed to a stronger domestic currency with beneficial effects upon inflation. On the other hand these developments have had adverse effects on the non resource sector by: subjecting it to more intense competition for limited resources, contributing to a loss of international competitiveness and reduced exports arising from a stronger exchange rate, reducing employment in the relatively more labour intensive non resource sector, and contributing to an eventual slow down in the overall economy. These positive and negative effects, and the overall impact of a resource price boom, require a fundamentally closer analysis of the structure of the economy under scrutiny. In this context the policy response by government is likely to be pivotal in determining the overall macroeconomic outcomes from a resource price boom. The aim of this paper is to develop a generic analytical framework to appraise economic outcomes in the wake of a resource price boom for a resource producing and exporting economy. To this end a dynamic long run macroeconomic model is developed, emphasising the important role and contribution of government fiscal policy in influencing subsequent macroeconomic outcomes. The adjustment process in the model arising from a resource price shock emphasises a spending (or wealth) effect, an income effect, a revenue effect, a current account effect and an exchange rate effect, which facilitate a robust analysis of subsequent macroeconomic outcomes from such a shock as well as related policy responses.Resource price shock, dynamic macroeconomic model, simulation analysis, macroeconomic adjustment, policy analysis

Resource price turbulence and macroeconomic adjustment for a resource exporter: a conceptual framework for policy analysis

Increased global demand for energy and other resources, particularly from the rapidly developing economies of China and India and the opening up of global resource markets to global investors and speculative activity, has resulted in considerable recent turbulence in resource prices. The recent magnitude of change in resource prices, both positive and negative, and their macroeconomic implications is of considerable contemporary importance to both resource importing and exporting economies. For a resource exporting economy, such as that of Australia, the recent resource price boom has resulted in: increased government taxation revenue, increased employment and wages in the resource and resource related sectors, increased spending in the domestic economy that contributed to buoyant economic growth, increased resource exports to the booming economies of China and India and contributed to a stronger domestic currency with beneficial effects upon inflation. On the other hand these developments have had adverse effects on the nonresource sector by: subjecting it to more intense competition for limited resources, contributing to a loss of international competitiveness and reduced exports arising from a stronger exchange rate, reducing employment in the relatively more labour intensive non-resource sector, and contributing to an eventual slow down in the overall economy. These positive and negative effects, and the overall impact of a resource price boom, require a fundamentally closer analysis of the structure of the economy under scrutiny. In this context the policy response by government is likely to be pivotal in determining the overall macroeconomic outcomes from a resource price boom. The aim of this paper is to develop a generic analytical framework to appraise economic outcomes in the wake of a resource price boom for a resource producing and exporting economy. To this end a dynamic long run macroeconomic model is developed, emphasising the important role and contribution of government fiscal policy in influencing subsequent macroeconomic outcomes. The adjustment process in the model arising from a resource price shock emphasises a spending (or wealth) effect, an income effect, a revenue effect, a current account effect and an exchange rate effect, which facilitate a robust analysis of subsequent macroeconomic outcomes from such a shock as well as related policy responses

Resource price turbulence and macroeconomic adjustment for a resource exporter: a conceptual framework for policy analysis

Increased global demand for energy and other resources, particularly from the rapidly developing economies of China and India and the opening up of global resource markets to global investors and speculative activity, has resulted in considerable recent turbulence in resource prices. The recent magnitude of change in resource prices, both positive and negative, and their macroeconomic implications is of considerable contemporary importance to both resource importing and exporting economies. For a resource exporting economy, such as that of Australia, the recent resource price boom has resulted in: increased government taxation revenue, increased employment and wages in the resource and resource related sectors, increased spending in the domestic economy that contributed to buoyant economic growth, increased resource exports to the booming economies of China and India and contributed to a stronger domestic currency with beneficial effects upon inflation. On the other hand these developments have had adverse effects on the nonresource sector by: subjecting it to more intense competition for limited resources, contributing to a loss of international competitiveness and reduced exports arising from a stronger exchange rate, reducing employment in the relatively more labour intensive non-resource sector, and contributing to an eventual slow down in the overall economy. These positive and negative effects, and the overall impact of a resource price boom, require a fundamentally closer analysis of the structure of the economy under scrutiny. In this context the policy response by government is likely to be pivotal in determining the overall macroeconomic outcomes from a resource price boom. The aim of this paper is to develop a generic analytical framework to appraise economic outcomes in the wake of a resource price boom for a resource producing and exporting economy. To this end a dynamic long run macroeconomic model is developed, emphasising the important role and contribution of government fiscal policy in influencing subsequent macroeconomic outcomes. The adjustment process in the model arising from a resource price shock emphasises a spending (or wealth) effect, an income effect, a revenue effect, a current account effect and an exchange rate effect, which facilitate a robust analysis of subsequent macroeconomic outcomes from such a shock as well as related policy responses

Quantitative Analysis of Supporting Cell Subtype Labeling Among CreER Lines in the Neonatal Mouse Cochlea

Four CreER lines that are commonly used in the auditory field to label cochlear supporting cells (SCs) are expressed in multiple SC subtypes, with some lines also showing reporter expression in hair cells (HCs). We hypothesized that altering the tamoxifen dose would modify CreER expression and target subsets of SCs. We also used two different reporter lines, ROSA26 (tdTomato) and CAG-eGFP, to achieve the same goal. Our results confirm previous reports that Sox2 (CreERT2) and Fgfr3-iCreER (T2) are not only expressed in neonatal SCs but also in HCs. Decreasing the tamoxifen dose did not reduce HC expression for Sox2 (CreERT2) , but changing to the CAG-eGFP reporter decreased reporter-positive HCs sevenfold. However, there was also a significant decrease in the number of reporter-positive SCs. In contrast, there was a large reduction in reporter-positive HCs in Fgfr3-iCreER (T2) mice with the lowest tamoxifen dose tested yet only limited reduction in SC labeling. The targeting of reporter expression to inner phalangeal and border cells was increased when Plp-CreER (T2) was paired with the CAG-eGFP reporter; however, the total number of labeled cells decreased. Changes to the tamoxifen dose or reporter line with Prox1 (CreERT2) caused minimal changes. Our data demonstrate that modifications to the tamoxifen dose or the use of different reporter lines may be successful in narrowing the numbers and/or types of cells labeled, but each CreER line responded differently. When the ROSA26 (tdTomato) reporter was combined with any of the four CreER lines, there was no difference in the number of tdTomato-positive cells after one or two injections of tamoxifen given at birth. Thus, tamoxifen-mediated toxicity could be reduced by only giving one injection. While the CAG-eGFP reporter consistently labeled fewer cells, both reporter lines are valuable depending on the goal of the study

Continuity or change in business representation in Britain? An assessment of the Heseltine initiatives of the 1990s

Britain has a fragmented, overlapping, and underresourced system of business representation. Attempts at reform, however, have proved difficult and largely unsuccessful. A coherent and logical system is relevant, in terms of both an effective dialogue between government and business, and the promotion of competitiveness and productivity. Through interviews and archival evidence, I look at how government has attempted to reform business associations. The main focus is the Heseltine initiatives of the 1990s: I outline the various initiatives taken, reveal the extent to which policy represented continuity or change, and consider whether the initiatives were effective. I show that they had a degree of success but that they would have made greater impact if they had been sustained over a longer period of time. A consideration of the historical context, moreover, suggests there may be limits to the role of government intervention in business association reform

Nature-inspired trapped air cushion surfaces for environmentally sustainable antibiofouling

Feathers of seabirds and waterfowl (for example the mallard duck (Anas platyrhynchos)) consist of hierarchical fibrillar structures encapsulated with hydrophobic preen oil. These characteristics afford waterproofing through the entrapment of air pockets, enabling swimming and diving for such bird species. This liquid repellency mechanism for bird feathers is mimicked by surface hydrophobisation of fibrous nonwoven polypropylene textiles to create large volumes of trapped air at the solid–liquid interface (plastron). Higher static water contact angle values correlate to a greater resistance towards water ingress (akin to the behaviour of mallard feathers). In order to extend the trapped gas layer lifetimes, the transportation of air from the water surface to a submerged air bubble by the diving bell spider (Argyroneta aquatica) for respiration is mimicked via short duration (< 1 s) solar-powered air bubble bursts once every 2 h. This combination of ornithological and arachnological inspired approaches yields stable trapped gas layers at the solid–liquid interface which are shown to inhibit biofouling in real-world outdoor wet environments

The Prevalence and Clinical Implications of Comorbid Back Pain in Shoulder Instability: A Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) Shoulder Instability Cohort Study.

Background:Understanding predictors of pain is critical, as recent literature shows that comorbid back pain is an independent risk factor for worse functional and patient-reported outcomes (PROs) as well as increased opioid dependence after total joint arthroplasty. Purpose/Hypothesis:The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether comorbid back pain would be predictive of pain or self-reported instability symptoms at the time of stabilization surgery. We hypothesized that comorbid back pain will correlate with increased pain at the time of surgery as well as with worse scores on shoulder-related PRO measures. Study Design:Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. Methods:As part of the Multicenter Orthopaedic Outcomes Network (MOON) Shoulder Instability cohort, patients consented to participate in pre- and intraoperative data collection. Demographic characteristics, injury history, preoperative PRO scores, and radiologic and intraoperative findings were recorded for patients undergoing surgical shoulder stabilization. Patients were also asked, whether they had any back pain. Results:The study cohort consisted of 1001 patients (81% male; mean age, 24.1 years). Patients with comorbid back pain (158 patients; 15.8%) were significantly older (28.1 vs 23.4 years; P &lt; .001) and were more likely to be female (25.3% vs 17.4%; P = .02) but did not differ in terms of either preoperative imaging or intraoperative findings. Patients with self-reported back pain had significantly worse preoperative pain and shoulder-related PRO scores (American Shoulder and Elbow Surgeons score, Western Ontario Shoulder Instability Index) (P &lt; .001), more frequent depression (22.2% vs 8.3%; P &lt; .001), poorer mental health status (worse scores for the RAND 36-Item Health Survey Mental Component Score, Iowa Quick Screen, and Personality Assessment Screener) (P &lt; .01), and worse preoperative expectations (P &lt; .01). Conclusion:Despite having similar physical findings, patients with comorbid back pain had more severe preoperative pain and self-reported symptoms of instability as well as more frequent depression and lower mental health scores. The combination of disproportionate shoulder pain, comorbid back pain and mental health conditions, and inferior preoperative expectations may affect not only the patient's preoperative state but also postoperative pain control and/or postoperative outcomes

Observation of interstellar lithium in the low-metallicity Small Magellanic Cloud

The primordial abundances of light elements produced in the standard theory of Big Bang nucleosynthesis (BBN) depend only on the cosmic ratio of baryons to photons, a quantity inferred from observations of the microwave background. The predicted primordial 7Li abundance is four times that measured in the atmospheres of Galactic halo stars. This discrepancy could be caused by modification of surface lithium abundances during the stars' lifetimes or by physics beyond the Standard Model that affects early nucleosynthesis. The lithium abundance of low-metallicity gas provides an alternative constraint on the primordial abundance and cosmic evolution of lithium that is not susceptible to the in situ modifications that may affect stellar atmospheres. Here we report observations of interstellar 7Li in the low-metallicity gas of the Small Magellanic Cloud, a nearby galaxy with a quarter the Sun's metallicity. The present-day 7Li abundance of the Small Magellanic Cloud is nearly equal to the BBN predictions, severely constraining the amount of possible subsequent enrichment of the gas by stellar and cosmic-ray nucleosynthesis. Our measurements can be reconciled with standard BBN with an extremely fine-tuned depletion of stellar Li with metallicity. They are also consistent with non-standard BBN.Comment: Published in Nature. Includes main text and Supplementary Information. Replaced with final title and abstrac

Co-design of a digital dietary intervention for adults at risk of type 2 diabetes

Background Co-design has the potential to create interventions that lead to sustainable health behaviour change. Evidence suggests application of co-design in various health domains has been growing; however, few public-facing digital interventions have been co-designed to specifically address the needs of adults at risk of Type 2 diabetes (T2D). This study aims to: (1) co-design, with key stakeholders, a digital dietary intervention to promote health behaviour change among adults at risk of T2D, and (2) evaluate the co-design process involved in developing the intervention prototype. Methods The co-design study was based on a partnership between nutrition researchers and designers experienced in co-design for health. Potential end-users (patients and health professionals) were recruited from an earlier stage of the study. Three online workshops were conducted to develop and review prototypes of an app for people at risk of T2D. Themes were inductively defined and aligned with persuasive design (PD) principles used to inform ideal app features and characteristics. Results Participants were predominantly female (range 58–100%), aged 38 to 63 years (median age = 59 years), consisting of a total of 20 end-users and four experts. Participants expressed the need for information from credible sources and to provide effective strategies to overcome social and environmental influences on eating behaviours. Preferred app features included tailoring to the individual’s unique characteristics, ability to track and monitor dietary behaviour, and tools to facilitate controlled social connectivity. Relevant persuasive design principles included social support, reduction (reducing effort needed to reach target behaviour), tunnelling (guiding users through a process that leads to target behaviour), praise, rewards, and self-monitoring. The most preferred prototype was the Choices concept, which focusses on the users’ journey of health behaviour change and recognises progress, successes, and failures in a supportive and encouraging manner. The workshops were rated successful, and feedback was positive. Conclusions The study’s co-design methods were successful in developing a functionally appealing and relevant digital health promotion intervention. Continuous engagement with stakeholders such as designers and end-users is needed to further develop a working prototype for testing

Spatial mapping of hematopoietic clones in human bone marrow

UNLABELLED: Clonal hematopoiesis (CH) is the expansion of somatically mutated cells in the hematopoietic compartment of individuals without hematopoietic dysfunction. Large CH clones (i.e., \u3e2% variant allele fraction) predispose to hematologic malignancy, but CH is detected at lower levels in nearly all middle-aged individuals. Prior work has extensively characterized CH in peripheral blood, but the spatial distribution of hematopoietic clones in human bone marrow is largely undescribed. To understand CH at this level, we developed a method for spatially aware somatic mutation profiling and characterized the bone marrow of a patient with polycythemia vera. We identified the complex clonal distribution of somatic mutations in the hematopoietic compartment, the restriction of somatic mutations to specific subpopulations of hematopoietic cells, and spatial constraints of these clones in the bone marrow. This proof of principle paves the way to answering fundamental questions regarding CH spatial organization and factors driving CH expansion and malignant transformation in the bone marrow. SIGNIFICANCE: CH occurs commonly in humans and can predispose to hematologic malignancy. Although well characterized in blood, it is poorly understood how clones are spatially distributed in the bone marrow. To answer this, we developed methods for spatially aware somatic mutation profiling to describe clonal heterogeneity in human bone marrow. See related commentary by Austin and Aifantis, p. 139