Tackling unintended consequences of grazing livestock farming: Multi-scale assessment of co-benefits and trade-offs for water pollution mitigation scenarios

A farm-to-landscape scale modelling framework combining regulating services and life cycle assessment mid-point impacts for air and water was used to explore the co-benefits and trade-offs of alternative management futures for grazing livestock farms. Two intervention scenarios were compared: one using on-farm interventions typically recommended following visual farm audits (visually-based) and the other using mechanistical understanding of nutrient and sediment losses to water (mechanistically-based). At farm scale, reductions in business-as-usual emissions to water of total phosphorus (TP) and sediment, using both the visually-based and mechanistically-based scenarios, were 20% and >35% for sediment. Key co-benefits at farm scale included reductions in nitrous oxide emissions and improvements in physical soil quality, whereas an increase in ammonia emissions was the principal trade-off. At landscape scale, simulated reductions in business-as-usual losses were <3% for both pollutants for both scenarios. The visually-based and mechanistically-based scenarios narrowed the gaps between current and modern background sediment loads by 6% and 11%, respectively. The latter scenario also improved the reduction of GWP100 relative to business-as-usual by 4%, in comparison to 1% for the former. However, with the predicted increase of ammonia emissions, both eutrophication potential and acidification potential increased (e.g., by 7% and 14% for the mechanistically-based scenario). The discrepancy of on-farm intervention efficacy across spatial scales generated by non-agricultural water pollutant sources is a key challenge for addressing water quality problems at landscape scale

Macroeconometric Modelling with a Global Perspective

This paper provides a synthesis and further development of a global modelling approach introduced in Pesaran, Schuermann and Weiner (2004), where country specific models in the form of VARX* structures are estimated relating a vector of domestic variables to their foreign counterparts and then consistently combined to form a Global VAR (GVAR). It is shown that VARX* models can be derived as the solution to a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model where over-identifying long-run theoretical relations can be tested and imposed if acceptable. Similarly, short-run over-identifying theoretical restrictions can be tested and imposed if accepted. The assumption of the weak exogeneity of the foreign variables for the long-run parameters can be tested, where foreign variables can be interpreted as proxies for global factors. Rather than using deviations from ad hoc statistical trends, the equilibrium values of the variables reflecting the long-run theory embodied in the model can be calculated

Contribution of forbidden orbits in the photoabsorption spectra of atoms and molecules in a magnetic field

In a previous work [Phys. Rev. A \textbf{66}, 0134XX (2002)] we noted a partial disagreement between quantum R-matrix and semiclassical calculations of photoabsorption spectra of molecules in a magnetic field. We show this disagreement is due to a non-vanishing contribution of processes which are forbidden according to the usual semiclassical formalism. Formulas to include these processes are obtained by using a refined stationary phase approximation. The resulting higher order in $\hbar$ contributions also account for previously unexplained ``recurrences without closed-orbits''. Quantum and semiclassical photoabsorption spectra for Rydberg atoms and molecules in a magnetic field are calculated and compared to assess the validity of the first-order forbidden orbit contributions.Comment: 12 pages, 6 figure

Overestimating Self-Blame for Stressful Life Events and Adolescents’ Latent Trait Cortisol (LTC): The Moderating Role of Parental Warmth. Journal of Youth and Adolescence

Cognitive interpretations of stressful events impact their implications for physiological stress processes. However, whether such interpretations are related to trait cortisol—an indicator of individual differences in stress physiology—is unknown. In 112 early adolescent girls (M age = 12.39 years), this study examined the association between self-blame estimates for past year events and latent trait cortisol, and whether maternal warmth moderated effects. Overestimating self-blame (versus objective indices) for independent (uncontrollable) events was associated with lower latent trait cortisol, and maternal warmth moderated the effect of self-blame estimates on latent trait cortisol for each dependent (at least partially controllable) and interpersonal events. Implications for understanding the impact of cognitive and interpersonal factors on trait cortisol during early adolescence are discussed

Prevalence of prediabetes and undiagnosed diabetes in patients with HFpEF and HFrEF and associated clinical outcomes

Purpose: The prevalence and consequences of prediabetic dysglycemia and undiagnosed diabetes is unknown in patients with heart failure (HF) and preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and has not been compared to heart failure and reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Methods: We examined the prevalence and outcomes associated with normoglycemia, prediabetic dysglycemia and diabetes (diagnosed and undiagnosed) among individuals with a baseline glycated hemoglobin (hemoglobin A1c, HbA1c) measurement stratified by HFrEF or HFpEF in the Candesartan in Heart failure Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and morbidity programme (CHARM). We studied the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular (CV) death, and all-cause death, and estimated hazard ratios (HR) by use of multivariable Cox regression models. Results: HbA1c was measured at baseline in CHARM patients enrolled in the USA and Canada and was available in 1072/3023 (35%) of patients with HFpEF and 1578/4576 (34%) patients with HFrEF. 18 and 16% had normoglycemia (HbA1c &lt; 6.0), 20 and 22% had prediabetes (HbA1c 6.0–6.4), respectively. Finally among patients with HFpEF 22% had undiagnosed diabetes (HbA1c &gt; 6.4), and 40% had known diabetes (any HbA1c), with corresponding prevalence among HFrEF patients being 26 and 35%. The rates of both clinical outcomes of interest were higher in patients with undiagnosed diabetes and prediabetes, compared to normoglycemic patients, irrespective of HF subtype, and in general higher among HFrEF patients. For the primary composite outcome among HFpEF patients, the HRs were 1.02 (95% CI 0.63–1.65) for prediabetes, HR 1.18 (0.75–1.86) for undiagnosed diabetes and 2.75 (1.83–4.11) for known diabetes, respectively, p value for trend across groups &lt; 0.001. Dysglycemia was also associated with worse outcomes in HFrEF. Conclusions: These findings confirm the remarkably high prevalence of dysglycemia in heart failure irrespective of ejection fraction phenotype, and demonstrate that dysglycemia is associated with a higher risk of adverse clinical outcomes, even before the diagnosis of diabetes and institution of glucose lowering therapy in patients with HFpEF as well as HFrEF

Tourism income and economic growth in Greece: Empirical evidence from their cyclical components

This paper examines the relationship between the cyclical components of Greek GDP and international tourism income for Greece for the period 1976–2004. Using spectral analysis the authors find that cyclical fluctuations of GDP have a length of about nine years and that international tourism income has a cycle of about seven years. The volatility of tourism income is more than eight times the volatility of the Greek GDP cycle. VAR analysis shows that the cyclical component of tourism income is significantly influencing the cyclical component of GDP in Greece. The findings support the tourism-led economic growth hypothesis and are of particular interest and importance to policy makers, financial analysts and investors dealing with the Greek tourism industry

Environmental and Farm Management Factors Associated with Tuberculosis on Cattle Farms in Northeastern Michigan

Objective—To identify major environmental and farm management factors associated with the occurrence of tuberculosis (TB) on cattle farms in northeastern Michigan. Design—Case-control study. Sample Population—17 cattle farms with infected cattle and 51 control farms. Procedure—Each case farm (laboratory confirmed diagnosis of Mycobacterium bovis infection) was matched with 2 to 4 control farms (negative whole-herd test results within previous 12 months) on the basis of type of farm (dairy or beef) and location. Cattle farm data were collected from in-person interviews and mailed questionnaires. Wildlife TB data were gathered through state wildlife surveillance. Environmental data were gathered from a satellite image-based geographic information system. Multivariable conditional logistic regression for matched analysis was performed. Results—Major factors associated with increased farm risk of TB were higher TB prevalence among wild deer and cattle farms in the area, herd size, and ponds or creeks in cattle housing areas. Factors associated with reduced farm risk of TB were greater amounts of natural open lands in the surrounding area and reducing deer access to cattle housing areas by housing cattle in barns, barnyards, or feedlots and use of electrified wire or barbed wire for livestock fencing. Conclusions and Clinical Relevance—Results suggest that certain environmental and management factors may be associated with risk of TB on cattle farms

Low-Level Prenatal and Postnatal Blood Lead Exposure and Adrenocortical Responses to Acute Stress in Children

BACKGROUND: A few recent studies have demonstrated heightened hypothalamic–pituitary–adrenal (HPA) axis reactivity to acute stress in animals exposed to heavy metal contaminants, particularly lead. However, Pb-induced dysregulation of the HPA axis has not yet been studied in humans. OBJECTIVE: In this study, we examined children’s cortisol response to acute stress (the glucocorticoid product of HPA activation) in relation to low-level prenatal and postnatal Pb exposure. METHODS: Children’s prenatal blood Pb levels were determined from cord blood specimens, and postnatal lead levels were abstracted from pediatrician and state records. Children’s adrenocortical responses to an acute stressor were measured using assays of salivary cortisol before and after administration of a standard cold pressor task. RESULTS: Pb exposure was not associated with initial salivary cortisol levels. After an acute stressor, however, increasing prenatal and postnatal blood Pb levels were independently associated with significantly heightened salivary cortisol responses. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that relatively low prenatal and postnatal blood lead levels— notably those below the 10 µg/dL blood lead level identified by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for public health purposes—can alter children’s adrenocortical responses to acute stress. The behavioral and health consequences of this Pb-induced HPA dysregulation in children have yet to be determined