Analysing the Role of Fusion Power in the Future Global Energy System

This work presents the EFDA Times model (ETM), developed within the European Fusion Development Agreement (EFDA). ETM is an optimization global energy model which aims at providing the optimum energy system composition in terms of social wealth and sustainability including fusion as an alternative technology in the long term. Two framework scenarios are defined: a Base case scenario with no limits to CO2 emissions, and a 450ppm scenario with a limit of 450ppm in CO2-eq concentrations set by 2100. Previous results showed that in the Base case scenario, with no measures for CO2 emission reductions, fusion does not enter the energy system. However, when CO2 emission restrictions are imposed, the global energy system composition changes completely. In a 450ppm scenario, coal technologies disappear in a few decades, being mainly replaced by nuclear fission technologies which experience a great increase when constrained only by Uranium resources exhaustion. Fission technologies are then replaced by the fusion power plants that start in 2070, with a significant contribution to the global electricity production by 2100. To conclude the work, a sensitivity analysis will be presented on some parameters that may affect the possible role of fusion in the future global energy system

Social Costs of Energy Disruptions

The costs of energy supply disruptions for industrialised economies go well beyond the economic measures of national accounts. According to different kinds of risks, physical shortages or price shocks, there are several categories of negative effects. Oil disruptions have both a direct and an indirect impact, (at global and local levels) and have a short- and a medium-term horizon. The economic effects of electricity shortages are also direct and indirect, but the temporal lag is shorter than for oil disruptions. In this paper, we summarise the different ways an economy is affected by an oil shock or a power black-out. Oil crises in the past produced high inflation rates, trade and payments imbalances, high unemployment, and weak business and consumer confidence. The social costs of electricity shortages have immediate negative results, and relatively small, indirect effects depending on the extension of the disruption, the duration, the availability of advance warning and information. A specific assessment of the social costs of an electricity shortage remains a research task for the future

Security of Energy Supply: Comparing Scenarios from a European Perspective

This paper compares different results from a set of energy scenarios produced by international energy experts, in order to analyze projections on increasing European external energy dependence and vulnerability. Comparison among different scenarios constitutes the basis of a critical review of existing energy security policies, suggesting alternative or complementary future actions. According to the analysis, the main risks and negative impacts in the long term could be the increasing risk of collusion among exporters due to growing dependence of industrialized countries and insufficient diversification; and a risk of demand/supply imbalance, with consequent instability for exporting regions due to insufficient demand, and lack of infrastructures due to insufficient supply. Cooperation with exporting countries enhancing investments in production capacity, and with developing countries in order to reinforce negotiation capacity of energy importing countries seem to be the most effective policies at international level