Biberacher, M.

Cabal, Helena

Ciorba, U.

Eherer, C.

Gracceva, F.

Grohnheit, Poul Erik

Hamacher, T.

Han, W.

Lechón, Y.

Muehlich, P.

Pina, A.

Ward, D.

Online Research Database In Technology

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Downloaded from orbit.dtu.dk on: Dec 19, 2017The possible role of fusion power in a future sustainable global energy system usingthe EFDA TIMES global energy modelCabal, Helena; Lechón, Y.; Hamacher, T.; Muehlich, P.; Eherer, C.; Ciorba, U.; Gracceva, F.; Ward, D.;Han, W.; Biberacher, M.; Grohnheit, Poul Erik; Pina, A.Publication date:2010Link back to DTU OrbitCitation (APA):Cabal, H., Lechón, Y., Hamacher, T., Muehlich, P., Eherer, C., Ciorba, U., ... Pina, A. (2010). The possible roleof fusion power in a future sustainable global energy system using the EFDA TIMES global energy model.Abstract from Joint IEW-ETSAP Workshop, Stockholm, Sweden.1ETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010The possible role of fusion power in a futuresustainable global energy system using theEFDA Times modelCabal H.(1), Lechón Y.(1), Hamacher T.(2), Muehlich P.(2), Eherer C.(3), CiorbaU.(4), Gracceva F.(4), Ward D.(5), Han W.(5), Biberacher M.(6), Grohnheit P.E.(7)and Pina A.(8)(1) CIEMAT, Madrid-Spain(2) IPP, Garching-Germany(3) TUG, Graz-Austria and EFDA, Garching- Germany(4) ENEA, Rome-Italy(5) UKAEA, Oxfordshire-United Kingdom(6) OEAW, Salzburg-Austria(7) RISO, Roskilde-Denmark(8) IST, Lisboa-PortugalETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010The EFDA Times model (ETM) has been built in the framework of theEuropean Fusion Development Agreement.ETM background (2004): ORDECSYS, KanORS, HALOA and KUL [1]ETM participants are EURATOM Associations: CCFE (UK), CIEMAT (ES),ENEA (IT), IPP (GE), IST (PT), ÖAW (AU), RISO DTU (DK) and VTT (FI)Special mention to GC Tosato who, while being the EFDA Socio-Economic Office leader, fostered the ETM constructionThe EFDA Times Model (ETM) is a multi-regional, global and long-termenergy model of economic equilibrium, responsive to energytechnology innovations, domestic and international trade energypolicies, climate change mitigation and environment objectives.[1] Ordecsys, KanORS, HALOA and KUL. EFDA World TIMES Model. FINAL REPORT and Annexes (2004)INTRODUCTIONDESCRIPTION2ETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010- 15 world regions: Africa, Australia-New Zealand, Canada, China, Central and South America, Eastern Europe,Former Soviet Union, India, Japan, Middle East, Mexico, Other Developing Asia, South Korea, United States, andWestern Europe.- Time horizon: 2100- Sectors in the RES: residential, commercial, agriculture, industrial, transportation, electricity production andupstream/downstream- Demand scenario: energy demand driver projections from the general equilibrium model GEM-E3 [2][2] http://www.gem-e3.net/MAIN CHARACTERISTICS- Six time slices: three seasons (winter, summer and intermediate) and two part of the day (day and night)- Trade: inter-regional exchange process (trade of commodities) among the different regionsETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010To develop consistent long-term energy scenarios containing fusion asan energy option and showing the potential benefits of fusion power asan emission free energy sourceMAIN ETM OBJECTIVEFusion power plants characterization: Power Plant Conceptual Study (PPCS) [3][3] EFDA. A Conceptual Study of Commercial Fusion Power Plants. Final Report (2005)FUSION TECHNOLOGIES IN THE MODELStart Life AF INV (€/kW) FIXOM (€/kW) VAROM (€/MWh)Basic plant 2050 40 85% 3940 (10th)2950 (100th)65.8 2.16 (10th)1.64 (100th)Advanced plant 2070 40 85% 2820 (10th)2170 (100th)65.3 2.14 (10th)1.64 (100th)3ETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010Some tasks carried out from 2004:• Revision and update of the data included in the upstream, power generation,residential, commercial, industry and transportation sectors• RES sector update• Modelling of the natural gas markets of the model• Prospects for fusion generation: sensitivity analysis and storylines• Preliminary scoping studies of the role of fusion in the future energy market• Analysis of global energy scenarios• Resource potentials updateAnd also:Continuous data checking and updating, scenario validation, model testingand assessment of resultsLAST ACTIVITIESETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010 Base case scenario: there is no limit to CO2 emissions 550ppm scenario: a limit of 550ppm in CO2-eq concentrations is set by 2100SCENARIOS 650ppm scenario: a limit of 650ppm in CO2-eq concentrations is set by 2100 HFC scenario: 550ppm scenario + fusion costs 30% higher HUR scenario: 550ppm scenario + high uranium resources (x10) ULC scenario: 550ppm scenario + low uranium extraction costs (-50%)For the sensitivity analysis4ETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010RESULTS- Power Generation550 ppm scenarioBase case scenarioBiomassCHPCoalFissionFusionGasGeothermalHydroOilCCSSolarWInd0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJBiomass CHP Coal Fission Fusion Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil CCS Solar Wind0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJBiomass CHP Coal Fission Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil Solar WindETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010RESULTS- Primary Energy550 ppm scenarioBase case scenarioBiomassCHPCoalFissionFusionGasGeothermalHydroOilCCSSolarWInd020000040000060000080000010000001200000140000016000002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJCoal Oil Gas Fission Wind Bio Hydro Solar Geo+Tide020000040000060000080000010000001200000140000016000002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJCoal Oil Gas Fission Wind Bio Hydro Solar Geo+Tide Fusion5ETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS- CO2 reductions550 ppm scenario650 ppm scenarioBiomassCHPCoalFissionFusionGasGeothermalHydroOilCCSSolarWIndPower Generation0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJBiomass CHP Coal Fission Fusion Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil CCS Solar Wind0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJBiomass CHP Coal Fission Fusion Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil CCS Solar WindETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS- High Fusion Costs (+30%)550 ppm scenarioHFC scenario (+550ppm)BiomassCHPCoalFissionFusionGasGeothermalHydroOilCCSSolarWIndPower Generation0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJBiomass CHP Coal Fission Fusion Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil CCS Solar Wind0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJBiomass CHP Coal Fission Fusion Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil CCS Solar Wind6ETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS- High Uranium Resources (x 10)550 ppm scenarioHUR scenario (+550ppm)BiomassCHPCoalFissionFusionGasGeothermalHydroOilCCSSolarWIndPower Generation0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500005000002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJBiomass CHP Coal Fission Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil CCS Solar Wind0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500005000002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJBiomass CHP Coal Fission Fusion Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil CCS Solar WindETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS- Uranium Low extraction Costs (-50%)550 ppm scenarioULC scenario (+550ppm)BiomassCHPCoalFissionFusionGasGeothermalHydroOilCCSSolarWIndPower Generation0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500005000002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJBiomass CHP Coal Fission Fusion Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil CCS Solar Wind0500001000001500002000002500003000003500004000004500005000002000 2005 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100PJBiomass CHP Coal Fission Fusion Gas Geothermal Hydro Oil CCS Solar Wind7ETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010 Re-aggregation of regions Re-calibration to a new base-year Introducing new TIMES options to the EFDA model Enhancement of model in nuclear power sector Review of technologies such as CCS, central solar power, road transportor storage technologies Review of resources such as uranium resources Review of demand driversPOSSIBLE NEXT STEPSETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010 In the Base Case scenario, fusion does not enter the power system,while in the 550ppm one it is responsible of almost half of the globalelectricity production in 2100 Also in primary energy, coal is displaced from a relevant position in2100 by fusion and RES when limiting the CO2 emissions Fusion penetration in the global power system is bigger andanticipates when the restrictions on the CO2 emissions are stricter Fusion penetration is quite robust under cost increase In an utopian scenario with unlimited Uranium resource, fissiontechnologies dominate the system from 2040 Uranium costs reductions do not influence fusion developmentFusion has a chance in the low carbon energy systemsCONCLUSIONS8ETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION!ETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010ANNEXES9ETSAP Regular WorkshopStockholm, 24th June, 2010[3] EFDA. A Conceptual Study of Commercial Fusion Power Plants. Final Report (2005)

The possible role of fusion power in a future sustainable global energy system using the EFDA TIMES global energy model

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The possible role of fusion power in a future sustainable global energy system using the EFDA TIMES global energy model

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