Unraveling the Historical Economies of Scale and Learning Effects for Desalination Technologies

As a technology develops and matures, both economies of scale and the lessons learned through experience drive down the cost over time. This article analyzes and separates the effects of economies of scale and learning through experience on historical cost reductions for three mature desalination technologies: multi‐effect distillation (MED), multi‐stage flash (MSF) distillation, and reverse osmosis (RO). The analysis suggests that learning has been the dominant driver for cost reductions, with learning rates of 23%, 30%, and 12% for MED, MSF, and RO, respectively, when the effects of scale are removed. The highest influence of economies of scale is found for MED, with an exponential scale coefficient of 0.71 and the largest difference between a traditional or scale‐free estimation of the learning rate. MSF and RO showed smaller differences between the traditional and de‐scaled learning rates (only 3%), pointing at learning as the main factor driving their historical cost reductions. However, a trend break observed over the last 10 years mirrors an exhaustion of the potential for technical improvements, as well as an increasing complexity and nonlinearity of the factors influencing the systems' cost. The findings provide useful data and insights for integrated and economic modeling frameworks, while providing guidance to prevent overestimations of the learning effect due to the confounding influence of economies of scale effects associated to historical unit upscaling processes

Vitamin D Supplementation and Hemoglobin Levels in Hypertensive Patients

Epidemiological evidence suggests that circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) levels are inversely associated with hemoglobin (Hb) levels and anemia risk. We evaluated whether vitamin D supplementation improves Hb levels and reduces anemia risk in hypertensive patients. Two hundred patients with 25OHD levels <75 nmol/L who attended the Styrian Vitamin D Hypertension Trial were included, of whom 188 completed the trial. Patients randomly received 2800 IU vitamin D3 daily or a matching placebo for eight weeks. Initially, the prevalence of anemic status (Hb levels <12.5 g/dL) and deficient 25OHD levels (<30 nmol/L) was 6.5% and 7.5%, respectively. All anemic patients had 25OHD levels >50 nmol/L. The mean (95% confidence interval) vitamin D effect on Hb levels was 0.04 (−0.14 to 0.22) g/dL (). Moreover, vitamin D treatment did not influence anemic status significantly (). Likewise, vitamin D had no significant effect on Hb levels in the subgroups of anemic patients or in patients with initial 25OHD levels <30 nmol/L. In conclusion, a daily vitamin D supplement of 2800 IU for eight weeks did not improve Hb levels or anemic status in hypertensive patients. Future trials should focus on anemic patients with deficient 25OHD levels (e.g., <30 nmol/L). This trial is registered with clinicaltrials.gov [NCT02136771]

The effects of positive end-expiratory pressure on cardiac function: a comparative echocardiography-conductance catheter study.

BACKGROUND Echocardiographic parameters of diastolic function depend on cardiac loading conditions, which are altered by positive pressure ventilation. The direct effects of positive end-expiratory pressure (PEEP) on cardiac diastolic function are unknown. METHODS Twenty-five patients without apparent diastolic dysfunction undergoing coronary angiography were ventilated noninvasively at PEEPs of 0, 5, and 10 cmH2O (in randomized order). Echocardiographic diastolic assessment and pressure-volume-loop analysis from conductance catheters were compared. The time constant for pressure decay (τ) was modeled with exponential decay. End-diastolic and end-systolic pressure volume relationships (EDPVRs and ESPVRs, respectively) from temporary caval occlusion were analyzed with generalized linear mixed-effects and linear mixed models. Transmural pressures were calculated using esophageal balloons. RESULTS τ values for intracavitary cardiac pressure increased with the PEEP (n = 25; no PEEP, 44 ± 5 ms; 5 cmH2O PEEP, 46 ± 6 ms; 10 cmH2O PEEP, 45 ± 6 ms; p < 0.001). This increase disappeared when corrected for transmural pressure and diastole length. The transmural EDPVR was unaffected by PEEP. The ESPVR increased slightly with PEEP. Echocardiographic mitral inflow parameters and tissue Doppler values decreased with PEEP [peak E wave (n = 25): no PEEP, 0.76 ± 0.13 m/s; 5 cmH2O PEEP, 0.74 ± 0.14 m/s; 10 cmH2O PEEP, 0.68 ± 0.13 m/s; p = 0.016; peak A wave (n = 24): no PEEP, 0.74 ± 0.12 m/s; 5 cmH2O PEEP, 0.7 ± 0.11 m/s; 10 cmH2O PEEP, 0.67 ± 0.15 m/s; p = 0.014; E' septal (n = 24): no PEEP, 0.085 ± 0.016 m/s; 5 cmH2O PEEP, 0.08 ± 0.013 m/s; 10 cmH2O PEEP, 0.075 ± 0.012 m/s; p = 0.002]. CONCLUSIONS PEEP does not affect active diastolic relaxation or passive ventricular filling properties. Dynamic echocardiographic filling parameters may reflect changing loading conditions rather than intrinsic diastolic function. PEEP may have slight positive inotropic effects. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT02267291 , registered 17. October 2014

The cross section minima in elastic Nd scattering: a ``smoking gun'' for three nucleon force effects

Neutron-deuteron elastic scattering cross sections are calculated at different energies using modern nucleon-nucleon interactions and the Tucson-Melbourne three-nucleon force adjusted to the triton binding energy. Predictions based on NN forces only underestimate nucleon-deuteron data in the minima at higher energies starting around 60 MeV. Adding the three-nucleon forces fills up those minima and reduces the discrepancies significantly.Comment: 11 pages, 6 figure

The Synergistic Interplay between Vitamins D and K for Bone and Cardiovascular Health: A Narrative Review

Vitamins D and K are both fat-soluble vitamins and play a central role in calcium metabolism. Vitamin D promotes the production of vitamin K-dependent proteins, which require vitamin K for carboxylation in order to function properly. The purpose of this review is to summarize available evidence of the synergistic interplay between vitamins D and K on bone and cardiovascular health. Animal and human studies suggest that optimal concentrations of both vitamin D and vitamin K are beneficial for bone and cardiovascular health as supported by genetic, molecular, cellular, and human studies. Most clinical trials studied vitamin D and K supplementation with bone health in postmenopausal women. Few intervention trials studied vitamin D and K supplementation with cardiovascular-related outcomes. These limited studies indicate that joint supplementation might be beneficial for cardiovascular health. Current evidence supports the notion that joint supplementation of vitamins D and K might be more effective than the consumption of either alone for bone and cardiovascular health. As more is discovered about the powerful combination of vitamins D and K, it gives a renewed reason to eat a healthy diet including a variety of foods such as vegetables and fermented dairy for bone and cardiovascular health

Vitamin D testing and treatment: a narrative review of current evidence

Vitamin D testing and treatment is a subject of controversial scientific discussions, and it is challenging to navigate through the expanding vitamin D literature with heterogeneous and partially opposed opinions and recommendations. In this narrative review, we aim to provide an update on vitamin D guidelines and the current evidence on the role of vitamin D for human health with its subsequent implications for patient care and public health issues. Vitamin D is critical for bone and mineral metabolism, and it is established that vitamin D deficiency can cause rickets and osteomalacia. While many guidelines recommend target serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25[OH]D) concentrations of ≥50 nmol/L (20 ng/mL), the minimum consensus in the scientific community is that serum 25(OH)D concentrations below 25–30 nmol/L (10–12 ng/mL) must be prevented and treated. Using this latter threshold of serum 25(OH)D concentrations, it has been documented that there is a high worldwide prevalence of vitamin D deficiency that may require public health actions such as vitamin D food fortification. On the other hand, there is also reason for concern that an exploding rate of vitamin D testing and supplementation increases costs and might potentially be harmful. In the scientific debate on vitamin D, we should consider that nutrient trials differ from drug trials and that apart from the opposed positions regarding indications for vitamin D treatment we still have to better characterize the precise role of vitamin D for human health

Macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets

Several major economies rely heavily on fossil-fuel production and exports, yet current low-carbon technology diffusion, energy efficiency and climate policy may be substantially reducing global demand for fossil fuels.1-4 This trend is inconsistent with observed investment in new fossil-fuel ventures1,2, which could become stranded as a result. Here we use an integrated global economy environment simulation model to study the macroeconomic impact of stranded fossil-fuel assets (SFFA). Our analysis suggests that part of the SFFA would occur as a result of an already ongoing technological trajectory, irrespective of whether new climate policies are adopted or not; the loss would be amplified if new climate policies to reach the 2°C target are adopted and/or if low-cost producers (some OPEC countries) maintain their level of production (‘sell-out’) despite declining demand; the magnitude of the loss from SFFA may amount to a discounted global wealth loss of $1-4tn; and there are clear distributional impacts, with winners (e.g. net importers such as China or the EU) and losers (e.g. Russia, the US or Canada, which could see their fossil-fuel industries nearly shut down), although the two effects would largely offset each other at the level of aggregate global GDP.The authors acknowledge C-EERNG and Cambridge Econometrics for support, and funding from EPSRC (JFM, fellowship no. EP/ K007254/1); the Newton Fund (JFM, PS, JV, EPSRC grant no EP/N002504/1 and ESRC grant no ES/N013174/1), NERC (NRE, PH, HP, grant no NE/P015093/1), CONICYT (PS), the Philomathia Foundation (JV), the Cambridge Humanities Research Grants Scheme (JV), and Horizon 2020 (HP, JFM; Sim4Nexus project)