Learning and Action Alliance framework to facilitate stakeholder collaboration and social learning in urban flood risk management

Flood and water management governance may be enhanced through partnership working, intra- and cross-organisational collaborations, and wide stakeholder participation. Nonetheless, barriers associated with ineffective communication, fragmented responsibilities and ‘siloed thinking’ restrict open dialogue and discussion. The Learning and Action Alliance (LAA) framework may help overcome these barriers by enabling effective engagement through social learning, and facilitating targeted actions needed to deliver innovative solutions to environmental problems. By increasing the adaptive capacity of decision-makers and participants, social learning through LAAs may lead to concerted action and sustained processes of behavioural change. In this paper, we evaluate the LAA framework as a catalyst for change that supports collaborative working and facilitates transition to more sustainable flood risk management. We use a case study in Newcastle-upon-Tyne, UK, to demonstrate how the LAA framework brought together disparate City stakeholders to co-produce new knowledge, negotiate innovative actions and, ultimately, work towards implementing a new vision for sustainable urban flood risk management. The shared vision of Newcastle as a ‘Blue-Green City’ that emerged is founded on a strong platform for social learning which increased organisations’ and individuals’ capacities to manage differences in perspectives and behaviours, reframe knowledge, and make collective decisions based on negotiation and conflict resolution. Broad recommendations based on lessons learned from the Newcastle LAA are presented to aid other cities and regions in establishing and running social learning platforms

Credit Risk Determinants in European Banking: Evidence from Albania, Italy, Spain and Turkey (1998-2016)

Credit risk has always been a major risk in banking given that financial crises are usually associated by an increase on loan defaults. The 2008 global financial crisis revealed the fragility of banking systems and highlighted the importance of identifying the determinants of credit risk, in order to prevent banking systems from collapse and as such to maintain the stability of the whole financial system. In the aftermath of the 2008 crash, Europe was faced with another crisis, namely, the Eurozone debt crisis that considerably affected several developed countries especially those that are characterized as peripheral European countries. In parallel with the increased risk of default on their debts, these countries also faced tremendous problems in their banking sectors as the quality of loans granted by their banks further deteriorated, enhancing the argument that credit risk is an issue of core interest to financial stability. Moreover, the high dominance of some peripheral countries‘ banks in the banking sectors of less developed European economies (i.e. Albania) suggests that specific events in these countries might have a spillover effect. Based on quarterly data over the period 1998-2016, this thesis provides empirical evidence on the link between credit risk and a range of explanatory variables for four European countries, namely, Albania, Italy, Spain and Turkey. Motivated by the weak economic conditions and the increased bank credit risk in Italy and Spain in the aftermath of the sovereign debt crisis as well as by the significant presence of Italian and Spanish banks in the banking systems of Albania and Turkey respectively, the contribution of the thesis is fourfold: First, a thorough credit risk investigation is provided for each focal country, based on unique features, exclusively related to them (such as the Italian and the Spanish debt crisis spreads that proxy the sovereign debt crisis risks in Italy and Spain respectively). Secondly, a spillover effect of the sovereign debt crisis in Albania and Turkey is investigated since it is believed that shocks may be easily transmitted through bank and trade channels even to economies that are not directly exposed to the crisis. To the author‘s knowledge, this is the first time that such a spillover effect is investigated in the relevant literature. Thirdly, a wider timeframe is investigated, compared to that analyzed in the previous studies, which captures the booming period (1998-2007), the global financial crisis (2008- 2009) and the ensuing European sovereign debt crisis (2010-2012) where Italy and Spain were deeply involved as well as the aftermath of the two crises (2013-2016). Lastly, the empirical research is based on the ARDL approach to cointegration, which is rarely applied in the existing literature on credit risk and holds certain advantages against other econometric techniques. Besides, the methodological approach is complemented by robustness checks through the use of other approaches such as the VECM framework and the impulse response analysis. Findings suggest that macroeconomic, bank-specific, and financial markets‘ variables affect credit risk in the Albanian, Italian, Spanish and Turkish banking systems. The positive effects of the Italian and the Spanish sovereign debts on credit risk uncover the important link that exists between banking and the sovereign debt crisis. Moreover, findings suggest a contagious effect of the Italian debt crisis in Albania, given that the Italian debt crisis spread has a significantly positive effect on the Albanian credit risk. A similar spillover effect (of the Spanish debt crisis spread) in the Turkish credit risk does not appear to be significant, indicating that in contrast to Albania, the Turkish banking system is more domestically oriented. The findings‘ diversity among the focal countries emphasizes the role of country-specific features in determining credit risk and the importance of country case - studies to credit risk modeling; individualized results can be thoroughly interpreted by policy makers in each country, and thus, may be effectively used to regulate accordingly

Credit Risk Determinants in the Vulnerable Economies of Europe: Evidence from the Spanish Banking System

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to investigate the determinants of non-performing loans in the Spanish banking system over the period 1997Q4–2015Q3. This timeframe includes not only the booming period for the Spanish economy but also an extended post-crises interval which is missing from other studies for Spain. Design/methodology/approach: Using quarterly data from the Central Bank of Spain and from the European Central Bank, the paper employs the ARDL approach to cointegration to identify the existence of a long or short-run relationship between NPLs and a set of macroeconomic, bank-related and country-specific indicators. Findings: Findings from the ARDL model indicate that macroeconomic, bank-specific variables and interest rates are important determinants of non-performing loans in the Spanish banking system. Specifically, the real GDP, the Spanish long-term government bond yield, the return on equity, the total credit granted by the Spanish banks and their capital to assets ratio, explain credit risk in Spain both in the short and the long run. Research limitations/implications: Data on the bank-specific variables are for the whole banking industry, and not for individual banks. If such data were available, a comparison of the credit risk determinants between small/ big banks, private/public or domestic/foreign could be possibly made. Originality/value: These findings provide useful evidence to bank managers and policymakers in dealing with loans' defaults in Spain and in undertaking crucial reforms to stabilize the economy