Optimal food price stabilization in a small open developing country

In poor countries, most governments implement policies aiming to stabilize the prices of staple foods, which often include storage and trade measures insulating their domestic market from the world market. It is of crucial importance to understand the precise motivations and efficiency of those interventions, because they can have consequences worldwide. This paper addresses those issues by analyzing the case of a small, open developing country confronted by shocks to both the crop yield and foreign price. In this model, government interventions may be justified by the lack of an insurance market for food prices. Considering this market imperfection, the authors design optimal public interventions through trade and storage policies. They show that an optimal trade policy largely consists of subsidizing imports and taxing exports, which benefits consumers at the expense of producers. Import subsidies alleviate the non-negativity of food storage. In other words, when stocks are exhausted, subsidizing imports prevents domestic price spikes. One striking result: an optimal storage policy on its own is detrimental to consumers, since its stabilizing benefits leak into the world market and it raises the average domestic price. By contrast, an optimal combination of storage and trade policies results in a powerful stabilizing effect for domestic food prices.Markets and Market Access,Economic Theory&Research,Emerging Markets,Access to Markets,Trade Policy

Stochastic Viability of Second Generation Biofuel Chains: Micro-economic Spatial Modeling in France

Within an overall project to assess the ability of the agricultural sector to contribute to bioenergy production, we set out here to examine the economic and technological viability of a bioenergy facility in an uncertain economic context, using the stochastic viability approach. We consider two viability constraints: the facility demand for lignocellulosic feedstock has to be satisfied each year and the associated supply cost has to be lower than de profitability threshold of the facility. We assess the viability probability of various supplying strategies consisting in contracting a given share of the feedstock demand with perennial dedicated crops at the initial time and then in making up each year with annual dedicated crops or wood. The demand constraints and agricultural prices scenarios over the time horizon are introduced in an agricultural and forest biomass supply model, which in turns determines the supply cost per MWh and computes the viability probabilities of the various contract strategies. A sensibility analysis to agricultural prices at initial time is performed. Results show that when they are around or under the median (of the 1993–2007 prices), the strategy consisting in contracting 100% of the feedstock supply with perennial dedicated crops is the best one.Biofuel, Biomass production, Spatial economics, Stochastic viability, Monte Carlo simulation, Resource /Energy Economics and Policy,

Interest Rate Dynamics and Commodity Prices

Monetary conditions are frequently cited as a significant factor influencing fluctuations in commodity prices. However, the precise channels of transmission are less well identified. In this paper, we develop a unified theory to study the impact of interest rates on commodity prices and the underlying mechanisms. To that end, we extend the competitive storage model to accommodate stochastically evolving interest rates, and establish general conditions under which (i) a unique rational expectations equilibrium exists and can be efficiently computed, and (ii) interest rates are negatively correlated with commodity prices. As an application, we quantify the impact of interest rates on commodity prices through the speculative channel, namely, the role of speculators in the physical market whose incentive to hold inventories is influenced by interest rate movements. Our findings demonstrate that real interest rates have nontrivial and persistent negative effect on commodity prices, and the magnitude of the impact varies substantially under different market supply and interest rate regimes

Longitudinal Study of an IP Geolocation Database

IP geolocation - the process of mapping network identifiers to physical locations - has myriad applications. We examine a large collection of snapshots from a popular geolocation database and take a first look at its longitudinal properties. We define metrics of IP geo-persistence, prevalence, coverage, and movement, and analyse 10 years of geolocation data at different location granularities. Across different classes of IP addresses, we find that significant location differences can exist even between successive instances of the database - a previously underappreciated source of potential error when using geolocation data: 47% of end users IP addresses move by more than 40 km in 2019. To assess the sensitivity of research results to the instance of the geo database, we reproduce prior research that depended on geolocation lookups. In this case study, which analyses geolocation database performance on routers, we demonstrate impact of these temporal effects: median distance from ground truth shifted from 167 km to 40 km when using a two months apart snapshot. Based on our findings, we make recommendations for best practices when using geolocation databases in order to best encourage reproducibility and sound measurement.Comment: Technical Report related to a paper appeared in Network Traffic Measurement and Analysis Conference (TMA 2021

Hypoxia promotes chemoresistance in acute lymphoblastic leukemia cell lines by modulating death signaling pathways

International audienceBackground: Several studies show that bone marrow (BM) microenvironment and hypoxia condition can promote the survival of leukemic cells and induce resistance to anti-leukemic drugs. However, the molecular mechanism for chemoresistance by hypoxia is not fully understood.Methods: In the present study, we investigated the effect of hypoxia on resistance to two therapies, methotrexate (MTX) and prednisolone (PRD), in two cell models for acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL). To look for an implication of hypoxia in chemoresistance, cell viability, total cell density and cell proliferation were analyzed. Survival and death signaling pathways were also screened by "reverse phase protein array" (RPPA) and western blotting experiments conducted on selected proteins to confirm the results.Results: We found that hypoxia promotes chemoresistance in both ALL cell lines. The induction of drug-resistance by hypoxia was not associated with an increase in total cell density nor an increase in cell proliferation. Using RPPA, we show that chemoresistance induced by hypoxia was mediated through an alteration of cell death signaling pathways. This protective effect of hypoxia seems to occur via a decrease in pro-apoptotic proteins and an increase in anti-apoptotic proteins. The results were confirmed by immunoblotting. Indeed, hypoxia is able to modulate the expression of anti-apoptotic proteins independently of chemotherapy while a pro-apoptotic signal induced by a chemotherapy is not modulated by hypoxia.Conclusions: Hypoxia is a factor in leukemia cell resistance and for two conventional chemotherapies modulates cell death signaling pathways without affecting total cell density or cell proliferation

What Role for Angiogenesis in Childhood Acute Lymphoblastic Leukaemia?

The role of angiogenesis in acute leukaemia has been discussed since the cloning of the gene of vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) from the acute myelogenous leukemia cell line (HL60) and, thereafter, when the first studies reported increased bone marrow vascularity and elevation of angiogenic cytokines in acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL). VEGF and basic fibroblast growth factor (bFGF) are the major proangiogenic cytokines that have been studied, and evaluation of their prognostic impact in childhood ALL has been reported in several studies, though with controversial results. The antiangiogenic response, contributing to the angiogenic balance, has scarcely been reported. The origin of the factors, their prognostic value, and their relevance as good markers of what really happens in the bone marrow are discussed in this paper. The place of antiangiogenic drugs in ALL has to be defined in the global treatment strategy

Early Interleukin-6 and Slope of Monocyte Human Leukocyte Antigen-DR: A Powerful Association to Predict the Development of Sepsis after Major Trauma

OBJECTIVE: Major trauma is characterized by a pro-inflammatory response, followed by an immunosuppression. Recently, in trauma patients, the lack of recovery of monocyte Human Leukocyte Antigen DR (mHLA-DR, a biomarker of ICU-acquired immunosuppression) between days 1-2 and days 3-4 has been demonstrated to be independently associated with sepsis development. The main objective of this study was to determine whether early measurements of IL-6 (interleukin-6) and IL-10 plasma concentrations (as markers of initial severity) could improve, in association with mHLA-DR recovery, the prediction of sepsis occurrence in severe trauma patients. DESIGN: Prospective observational study over 24 months in a Trauma ICU at university hospital. PATIENTS: Trauma patients with an ISS over 25 and age over 18 were included. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: mHLA-DR was assessed by flow cytometry, IL-6 and IL-10 concentrations by ELISA. 100 consecutive severely injured patients were monitored (mean ISS 37±10). 37 patients developed sepsis. IL-6 concentrations and slope of mHLA-DR expression between days 1-2 and days 3-4 were significantly different between septic and non-septic patients. IL-10 was not detectable in most patients. After adjustment for usual clinical confounders, when assessed as a pair, multivariate logistic regression analysis revealed that a slope of mHLA-DR expression (days 3-4/days 1-2)≤1.1 and a IL-6 concentration ≥ 67.1 pg/ml remained highly associated with the development of sepsis (adjusted OR 18.4, 95% CI 4.9; 69.4, p = .00002). CONCLUSIONS: After multivariate regression logistic analysis, when assessed as a pair, a high IL-6 concentration and a persistent mHLA-DR decreased expression were found to be in relation with the development of sepsis with the best predictive value. This study underlines the usefulness of daily monitoring of immune function to identify trauma patients at a high risk of infection

Anomaly or Augury? Global Food Prices Since 2007

This article reviews the dynamics of global food prices since the food crisis of2007–08, the extent to which international prices have influenced national prices and poverty and wellbeing outcomes, and considers whether this exceptional period represents an anomaly or likely signals future episodes of food price volatility. It finds that although some factors that contributed to recent events have eased considerably, some significant drivers remain structural threats to future food security. There is little reason to be confident that recent reductions in food prices and volatilities augur well for the food security or wellbeing of those living on low and precarious incomes in the future