Input and output considerations in estimating rates of chemical denudation

Estimation of rates of solutional denudation in river basins necessitates some consideration of salt inputs as well as consideration of salt outputs. Recent work in nutrient cycling has stressed the complexity and importance of the input factor, particularly when throughfall chemistry is taken into account. Frequently the differences between rates of input and output of salt in a river basin are small, suggesting that many published rates of solutional denudation, which consider outputs alone, or inputs only in part, are excessive. The input of salts, which may take place in rain, snow, fog and throughfall are most important in coastal areas. Analysis of data, for both the semi-arid United States and the Cotswold Hills in England, illustrate the need for long-term sampling, and for a detailed spatial network of sampling points

Re-thinking our global economic future

This note offers a few thoughts at an early stage of this COVID-19 crisis, largely with the objective of stimulating further reflection and analysis, and generating much better thoughts. The primary concern now should, unambiguously, be heavily skewed to this phase of the crisis - which may not necessarily be very short term. It is a critical, humanitarian phase in which the health imperatives and the medical needs and food supply take on an unprecedented importance for each person – and especially the most vulnerable in our societies - and for us collectively. But it is already urgent, too, to understand the future and how we rapidly design and build a future that is sustainable

Tadalafil in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease:a randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial

SummaryBackgroundPhosphodiesterase-5 (PDE5) inhibitors improve exercise capacity and quality of life in patients with idiopathic pulmonary arterial hypertension. However, whether such beneficial effects take place in selected populations with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) remains uncertain. We aimed to assess the effects of tadalafil—a PDE5 inhibitor—on exercise capacity and quality of life in patients with COPD and mild pulmonary hypertension.MethodsWe did a randomised, double-blind, parallel-group, placebo-controlled trial at three centres in Scotland, UK, between Sept 1, 2010, and Sept 1, 2012. Patients with moderate to severe COPD were randomly assigned (1:1), via centralised randomisation with a computer-generated sequence and block sizes of four, to receive daily tadalafil 10 mg or placebo for 12 weeks. Patients, study investigators, outcome assessors, and those administering drugs were masked to group allocation. The primary endpoint was the mean placebo-corrected difference between the baseline and final 6 min walk distance after 12 weeks. We measured change in quality of life at baseline, 8 weeks, and 12 weeks, with standardised questionnaires. Analysis was per protocol and by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT01197469.Findings120 patients were randomly assigned to receive tadalafil (n=60) or placebo (n=60), of whom 56 (93%) versus 57 (95%) completed the study. At 12 weeks the difference in 6 min walking distance between the tadalafil and placebo groups was 0·5 m (95% CI −11·6 to 12·5; p=0·937). We recorded no statistically significant changes in quality of life (between-group difference on the St George's Respiratory Questionnaire −2·64 [95% CI −6·43 to 1·15]; Research and Development version 1 short-form-36 4·08 [–1·35 to 9·52]; Minnesota Living with Heart Failure questionnaire −2·31 [–7·06 to 2·45]). 19 (32%) of 60 patients in the treatment group had dyspepsia; the severity of dyspepsia ranged from mild to severe, with four (21%) of 19 patients needing a proton-pump inhibitor. Five (8%) of 60 participants had dyspepsia in the placebo group. Headache was noted in 17 (28%) patients in the treatment group versus 5 (8%) in the placebo group, but was mild in all patients. Two (3%) patients in the treatment group had facial flushing, which resulted in one withdrawal. Other withdrawals within the tadalafil group happened after a transient ischaemic attack and two deaths (ruptured abdominal aortic aneurysm and pneumonia).InterpretationTadalafil does not improve exercise capacity or quality of life despite exerting pulmonary vasodilation.FundingChief Scientist Office for Scotland

Happiness as a Driver of Risk-Avoiding Behavior

Most governments try to discourage their citizens from taking extreme risks with their health and lives. Yet, for reasons not understood, many people continue to do so. We suggest a new approach to this longstanding question. First, we show that expected-utility theory predicts that 'happier' people will be less attracted to risky behaviors. Second, using BRFSS data on seatbelt use in a sample of 300,000 Americans, we document evidence strongly consistent with that prediction. Our result is demonstrated with various methodological approaches, including Bayesian model-selection and instrumental-variable estimation (based on unhappiness caused by widowhood). Third, using data on road accidents from the Add Health data set, we find strongly corroborative longitudinal evidence. These results suggest that government policy may need to address the underlying happiness of individuals rather than focus on behavioural symptoms.subjective well-being, risky behaviors, effects of well-being, rational carelessness

Happiness as a Driver of Risk-Avoiding Behavior

Understanding the reasons why individuals take risks, particularly unnecessary risks, remains an important question in economics. We provide the first evidence of a powerful connection between happiness and risk-avoidance. Using data on 300,000 Americans, we demonstrate that happier individuals wear seatbelts more frequently. This result is obtained with five different methodological approaches, including Bayesian model-selection and an instrumented analysis based on unhappiness through widowhood. Independent longitudinal data corroborate the finding, showing that happiness is predictive of future motor vehicle accidents. Our results are consistent with a rational-choice explanation: happy people value life and thus act to preserve it.risk preferences, seatbelt usage, vehicle accidents, subjective well-being, happiness

The global transformation of geomorphology

This chapter reviews the various developments in geomorphology in terms of institutions, journals, textbooks, research stations, etc. Among the institutions discussed are the Binghamton Geomorphology Symposium, the Geological Society of America Quaternary Geology and Geomorphology Division, the Association of American Geographers Geomorphology Specialty Group, the British Geomorphological Research Group, the IGU Commission on Measurements, Theory and Application in Geomorphology (COMTAG), the International Association of Geomorphologists, the European Geosciences Union (EGU), the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the International Quaternary Association, and the International Conference on Aeolian Research. Many countries established their own national bodies. A number of new journals appeared, including Catena, Earth Surface Processes and Landforms, Géomorphologie, and Geomorphology. In addition, during the closing decades of the twentieth century there was a proliferation of textbooks in geomorphology. One development was that geomorphological research was promoted by the establishment of research stations. These permitted long-term monitoring and provided bases for sustained investigations. The study of fluvial processes was much encouraged in the United States at USDA Forest Service research basins (known as ‘watersheds’ in the USA) such as the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest (New Hampshire), Coweeta Hydrologic Laboratory (North Carolina) and the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest (Oregon). The Royal Geographical Society (with the Institute of British Geographers) organized ambitious research projects in collaboration with host nations. Various US government departments supported much geomorphological research in various parts of the world. Some European countries fostered overseas geomorphological research and created missions. Notable was the work of ORSTOM (Office de la Recherche Scientifique et Technique Outre-mer) in former francophone colonies. In the post-war years, and as independence approached and then occurred, new universities were established in Africa. These employed expatriate geomorphologists and also trained up a new generation of indigenous scholars. The decades since the 1960s have been a period of space exploration and the development of remote sensing. This has had important implications for geomorphology. The period also saw the onset of the digital age and the beginning of the World Wide Web's influence on teaching and research. Applied research became increasingly important. A major cause for international and cross-disciplinary co-operation during the period was the emergence of geoarchaeology. Finally, since the 1950s, an increasing number of women have made important contributions to the discipline

A numerically stable algorithm for integrating Bayesian models using Markov melding

AbstractWhen statistical analyses consider multiple data sources, Markov melding provides a method for combining the source-specific Bayesian models. Markov melding joins together submodels that have a common quantity. One challenge is that the prior for this quantity can be implicit, and its prior density must be estimated. We show that error in this density estimate makes the two-stage Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler employed by Markov melding unstable and unreliable. We propose a robust two-stage algorithm that estimates the required prior marginal self-density ratios using weighted samples, dramatically improving accuracy in the tails of the distribution. The stabilised version of the algorithm is pragmatic and provides reliable inference. We demonstrate our approach using an evidence synthesis for inferring HIV prevalence, and an evidence synthesis of A/H1N1 influenza.</jats:p

MultiBUGS: A Parallel Implementation of the BUGS Modelling Framework for Faster Bayesian Inference

MultiBUGS is a new version of the general-purpose Bayesian modelling software BUGS that implements a generic algorithm for parallelising Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms to speed up posterior inference of Bayesian models. The algorithm parallelises evaluation of the product-form likelihoods formed when a parameter has many children in the directed acyclic graph (DAG) representation; and parallelises sampling of conditionally-independent sets of parameters. A heuristic algorithm is used to decide which approach to use for each parameter and to apportion computation across computational cores. This enables MultiBUGS to automatically parallelise the broad range of statistical models that can be fitted using BUGS-language software, making the dramatic speed-ups of modern multi-core computing accessible to applied statisticians, without requiring any experience of parallel programming. We demonstrate the use of MultiBUGS on simulated data designed to mimic a hierarchical e-health linked-data study of methadone prescriptions including 425,112 observations and 20,426 random effects. Posterior inference for the e-health model takes several hours in existing software, but MultiBUGS can perform inference in only 28 minutes using 48 computational cores