Interrupted time-series analysis and its application to behavioral data

Journal ArticleThis paper uses a question-and-answer format to present the technical aspects of interrupted time-series analysis (ITSA). Topics include the potential relevance of ITSA to behavioral researchers, serial dependency, time-series models, tests of significance, and sources of ITSA information

How pairs of partners emerge in an initially fully connected society

A social group is represented by a graph, where each pair of nodes is connected by two oppositely directed links. At the beginning, a given amount $p(i)$ of resources is assigned randomly to each node $i$. Also, each link $r(i,j)$ is initially represented by a random positive value, which means the percentage of resources of node $i$ which is offered to node $j$. Initially then, the graph is fully connected, i.e. all non-diagonal matrix elements $r(i,j)$ are different from zero. During the simulation, the amounts of resources $p(i)$ change according to the balance equation. Also, nodes reorganise their activity with time, going to give more resources to those which give them more. This is the rule of varying the coefficients $r(i,j)$. The result is that after some transient time, only some pairs $(m,n)$ of nodes survive with non-zero $p(m)$ and $p(n)$, each pair with symmetric and positive $r(m,n)=r(n,m)$. Other coefficients $r(m,i\ne n)$ vanish. Unpaired nodes remain with no resources, i.e. their $p(i)=0$, and they cease to be active, as they have nothing to offer. The percentage of survivors (i.e. those with with $p(i)$ positive) increases with the velocity of varying the numbers $r(i,j)$, and it slightly decreases with the size of the group. The picture and the results can be interpreted as a description of a social algorithm leading to marriages.Comment: 7 pages, 3 figure

Understanding the Role of Relationship Maintenance in Enduring Couple Partnerships in Later Adulthood

Intimate relationships in later adulthood are understudied despite their positive association with health and well-being. This cross-sectional mixed methods study sought to redress this gap by investigating relationship maintenance in later adulthood. Our international sub-sample comprised 1,565 participants aged 55 + and in an ongoing relationship. Results from hierarchical multiple regression indicated that overall happiness with the relationship had the largest effect size on relationship maintenance, with 53% of the variance explained. Content analyses of open-ended questions identified companionship and laughter as some of the “best liked” aspects of the relationship. Housework/cooking and saying “I love you” were among the behaviors that made participants feel appreciated. Results illustrated the types of maintenance behaviors adults in later adulthood who are in enduring partnerships employ

Urban Gravity: a Model for Intercity Telecommunication Flows

We analyze the anonymous communication patterns of 2.5 million customers of a Belgian mobile phone operator. Grouping customers by billing address, we build a social network of cities, that consists of communications between 571 cities in Belgium. We show that inter-city communication intensity is characterized by a gravity model: the communication intensity between two cities is proportional to the product of their sizes divided by the square of their distance

Nonlinear Dynamics and Interpersonal Correlates of Verbal Turn-Taking Patterns in a Group Therapy Session

Interpersonal processes and dynamics are ubiquitous topics in psychotherapy, yet they are difficult to study and are theoretically fragmented across therapeutic subdisciplines. The current study tests an integrative model of interpersonal dynamics in small groups using nonlinear dynamical systems theory. The conversation of one group therapy session (with six adolescent sex offenders) is analyzed using orbital decomposition, which allows for the identification of patterns in categorical time series data. The results show evidence of selforganizing social patterns, based on formal measures of turbulence (Lyapunov dimension), information novelty (Shannon\u27s entropy), and complexity (fractal dimension). The degree of patterning in turn taking is significantly correlated with measurements of control, closeness, and conflict among group members. Clinical implications and directions for future research are discussed

Driving under the influence of alcohol: a sequence analysis approach

Driving under the influence of alcohol: A sequence analysis approac

Implications of Debunking the "Critical Positivity Ratio" for Humanistic Psychology:Introduction to Special Issue

An extraordinary claim was made by one of the leading researchers within positive psychology, namely, there is a universal-invariant ratio between positive to negative emotions that serves as a unique tipping point between flourishing and languishing in individuals, marriages, organizations, and other human systems across all cultures and times. Known as the "critical positivity ratio," this finding was supposedly derived from the famous Lorenz equation in physics by using the mathematics of nonlinear dynamic systems, and was defined precisely as "2.9013." This exact number was widely touted as a great discovery by many leaders of positive psychology, had tremendous impact in various applied areas of psychology, and, more broadly, and was extensively cited in both the scientific literature and in the global popular media. However, this finding has been demonstrated to be bogus. Since its advent as a relatively new subdiscipline, positive psychology has claimed superiority to its precursor, the subdiscipline of humanistic psychology, in terms of supposedly both using more rigorous science and avoiding popularizing nonsense. The debunking of the critical positivity ratio demonstrates that positive psychology did not live up to these claims, and this has important implications, which are discussed in terms of "romantic scientism" and "voodoo science." In addition, articles in the special issue on the "Implications of Debunking the 'Critical Positivity Ratio' for Humanistic Psychology" are introduced, as they also delve into these concerns

Comparative Network Analysis of Preterm vs. Full-Term Infant-Mother Interactions

Several studies have reported that interactions of mothers with preterm infants show differential characteristics compared to that of mothers with full-term infants. Interaction of preterm dyads is often reported as less harmonious. However, observations and explanations concerning the underlying mechanisms are inconsistent. In this work 30 preterm and 42 full-term mother-infant dyads were observed at one year of age. Free play interactions were videotaped and coded using a micro-analytic coding system. The video records were coded at one second resolution and studied by a novel approach using network analysis tools. The advantage of our approach is that it reveals the patterns of behavioral transitions in the interactions. We found that the most frequent behavioral transitions are the same in the two groups. However, we have identified several high and lower frequency transitions which occur significantly more often in the preterm or full-term group. Our analysis also suggests that the variability of behavioral transitions is significantly higher in the preterm group. This higher variability is mostly resulted from the diversity of transitions involving non-harmonious behaviors. We have identified a maladaptive pattern in the maternal behavior in the preterm group, involving intrusiveness and disengagement. Application of the approach reported in this paper to longitudinal data could elucidate whether these maladaptive maternal behavioral changes place the infant at risk for later emotional, cognitive and behavioral disturbance

Seasonal time-series modeling and forecasting of monthly mean temperature for decision making in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq

A generalized structural time-series modeling framework was used to analyze the monthly records of mean temperature, one of the most important environmental parameters, using classical stochastic processes. In this article we are using the SARIMA Box–Jenkins model and obtain a medium-term (10 years) forecast of the mean temperature in Erbil. A prediction of the monthly mean temperature during the past 287 months ((Formula presented.)24 years) using the SARIMA(0,1,2)(0,1,1)12 model predicts that the average temperature in the governorate of Erbil, Iraq, will be stable for the next 10 years. The evaluation of prediction accuracy shows that our model performs equally well when applying it to different periods of time for which data is available. The method used here could easily be applied by the decision makers responsible for providing water and electricity in the Kurdistan Region