Predictive modeling of poor outcome in severe COVID-19: A single-center observational study based on clinical, cytokine and laboratory profiles

Producción CientíficaPneumonia is the main cause of hospital admission in COVID-19 patients. We aimed to perform an extensive characterization of clinical, laboratory, and cytokine profiles in order to identify poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients. Methods: A prospective and consecutive study involving 108 COVID-19 patients was conducted between March and April 2020 at Hospital Clínico Universitario de Valladolid (Spain). Plasma samples from each patient were collected after emergency room admission. Forty-five serum cytokines were measured in duplicate, and clinical data were analyzed using SPPS version 25.0. Results: A multivariate predictive model showed high hepatocyte growth factor (HGF) plasma levels as the only cytokine related to intubation or death risk at hospital admission (OR = 7.38, 95%CI—(1.28–42.4), p = 0.025). There were no comorbidities included in the model except for the ABO blood group, in which the O blood group was associated with a 14-fold lower risk of a poor outcome. Other clinical variables were also included in the predictive model. The predictive model was internally validated by the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.94, a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 95%. The use of a bootstrapping method confirmed these results. Conclusions: A simple, robust, and quick predictive model, based on the ABO blood group, four common laboratory values, and one specific cytokine (HGF), could be used in order to predict poor outcomes in COVID-19 patients.Instituto de Salud Carlos III - ( Proyecto COV20/00491)Consejeria de Educación de Castilla y León - (Proyecto VA256P20)Junta de Castilla y León y Fondo Europeo de Desarrollo Regional (FEDER) - (Proyecto EDU/1100/2017

Can the Cytokine Profile According to ABO Blood Groups Be Related to Worse Outcome in COVID-19 Patients? Yes, They Can

Producción CientíficaSevere status of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is extremely associated to cytokine release. Moreover, it has been suggested that blood group is also associated with the prevalence and severity of this disease. However, the relationship between the cytokine profile and blood group remains unclear in COVID-19 patients. In this sense, we prospectively recruited 108 COVID-19 patients between March and April 2020 and divided according to ABO blood group. For the analysis of 45 cytokines, plasma samples were collected in the time of admission to hospital ward or intensive care unit and at the sixth day after hospital admission. The results show that there was a risk of more than two times lower of mechanical ventilation or death in patients with blood group O (log rank: p = 0.042). At first time, all statistically significant cytokine levels, except from hepatocyte growth factor, were higher in O blood group patients meanwhile the second time showed a significant drop, between 20% and 40%. In contrast, A/B/AB group presented a maintenance of cytokine levels during time. Hepatocyte growth factor showed a significant association with intubation or mortality risk in non-O blood group patients (OR: 4.229, 95% CI (2.064–8.665), p < 0.001) and also was the only one bad prognosis biomarker in O blood group patients (OR: 8.852, 95% CI (1.540–50.878), p = 0.015). Therefore, higher cytokine levels in O blood group are associated with a better outcome than A/B/AB group in COVID-19 patients.Instituto de Salud Carlos III (grant COV20/00491)Junta de Castilla y León (grant 18IGOF

Clonal chromosomal mosaicism and loss of chromosome Y in elderly men increase vulnerability for SARS-CoV-2

The pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2, COVID-19) had an estimated overall case fatality ratio of 1.38% (pre-vaccination), being 53% higher in males and increasing exponentially with age. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, we found 133 cases (1.42%) with detectable clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations (mCA) and 226 males (5.08%) with acquired loss of chromosome Y (LOY). Individuals with clonal mosaic events (mCA and/or LOY) showed a 54% increase in the risk of COVID-19 lethality. LOY is associated with transcriptomic biomarkers of immune dysfunction, pro-coagulation activity and cardiovascular risk. Interferon-induced genes involved in the initial immune response to SARS-CoV-2 are also down-regulated in LOY. Thus, mCA and LOY underlie at least part of the sex-biased severity and mortality of COVID-19 in aging patients. Given its potential therapeutic and prognostic relevance, evaluation of clonal mosaicism should be implemented as biomarker of COVID-19 severity in elderly people. Among 9578 individuals diagnosed with COVID-19 in the SCOURGE study, individuals with clonal mosaic events (clonal mosaicism for chromosome alterations and/or loss of chromosome Y) showed an increased risk of COVID-19 lethality

Time evolution of cytokine profiles associated with mortality in COVID-19 hospitalized patients

Producción CientíficaBackground: High cytokine levels have been associated with severe COVID-19 disease. Although many cytokine studies have been performed, not many of them include combinatorial analysis of cytokine profiles through time. In this study we investigate the association of certain cytokine profiles and its evolution, and mortality in SARS-CoV2 infection in hospitalized patients. Methods: Serum concentration of 45 cytokines was determined in 28 controls at day of admission and in 108 patients with COVID-19 disease at first, third and sixth day of admission. A principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to characterize cytokine profiles through time associated with mortality and survival in hospitalized patients. Results: At day of admission non-survivors present significantly higher levels of IL-1α and VEGFA (PC3) but not through follow up. However, the combination of HGF, MCP-1, IL-18, eotaxine, and SCF (PC2) are significantly higher in non-survivors at all three time-points presenting an increased trend in this group through time. On the other hand, BDNF, IL-12 and IL-15 (PC1) are significantly reduced in non-survivors at all time points with a decreasing trend through time, though a protective factor. The combined mortality prediction accuracy of PC3 at day 1 and PC1 and PC2 at day 6 is 89.00% (p<0.001). Conclusions: Hypercytokinemia is a hallmark of COVID-19 but relevant differences between survivors and non-survivors can be early observed. Combinatorial analysis of serum cytokines and chemokines can contribute to mortality risk assessment and optimize therapeutic strategies. Three clusters of cytokines have been identified as independent markers or risk factors of COVID mortality