Linear and non-linear theory of a parametric instability of hydrodynamic warps in Keplerian discs

We consider the stability of warping modes in Keplerian discs. We find them to be parametrically unstable using two lines of attack, one based on three-mode couplings and the other on Floquet theory. We confirm the existence of the instability, and investigate its nonlinear development in three dimensions, via numerical experiment. The most rapidly growing non-axisymmetric disturbances are the most nearly axisymmetric (low m) ones. Finally, we offer a simple, somewhat speculative model for the interaction of the parametric instability with the warp. We apply this model to the masing disc in NGC 4258 and show that, provided the warp is not forced too strongly, parametric instability can fix the amplitude of the warp.Comment: 14 pages, 6 figures, revised version with appendix added, to be published in MNRA

Pensioner poverty over the next decade: what role for tax and benefit reform?

Recent falls in poverty amongst those aged 65 and over are unlikely to continue after 2007-08, even after the implementation of the proposals outlined in the Government's Pensions White Paper. This report looks at the prospects for pensioner poverty in England over the next decade. The authors find that that the proportion of those aged 65 and over living in poverty is set to remain at its current level - around one-in-five - between 2007-08 and 2017-18. This is despite the overall increase in the generosity of state pensions arising from the Pensions White Paper, and the fact that younger cohorts are expected to have more private pension income and higher employment rates at older ages than those preceding them

A Bayesian Approach to Comparing Cosmic Ray Energy Spectra

A common problem in ultra-high energy cosmic ray physics is the comparison of energy spectra. The question is whether the spectra from two experiments or two regions of the sky agree within their statistical and systematic uncertainties. We develop a method to directly compare energy spectra for ultra-high energy cosmic rays from two different regions of the sky in the same experiment without reliance on agreement with a theoretical model of the energy spectra. The consistency between the two spectra is expressed in terms of a Bayes factor, defined here as the ratio of the likelihood of the two-parent source hypothesis to the likelihood of the one-parent source hypothesis. Unlike other methods, for example chi^2 tests, the Bayes factor allows for the calculation of the posterior odds ratio and correctly accounts for non-Gaussian uncertainties. The latter is particularly important at the highest energies, where the number of events is very small.Comment: 22 pages, 10 figures, accepted for publication in Ap

Study of muons near shower cores at sea level using the E594 neutrino detector

The E594 neutrino detector has been used to study the lateral distribution of muons of energy 3 GeV near shower cores. The detector consists of a 340 ton fine grain calorimeter with 400,000 cells of flash chamber and dimensions of 3.7 m x 20 m x 3.7 m (height). The average density in the calorimeter is 1.4 gm/sq cm, and the average Z is 21. The detector was triggered by four 0.6 sq m scintillators placed immediately on the top of the calorimeter. The trigger required at least two of these four counters. The accompanying extensive air showers (EAS) was sampled by 14 scintillation counters located up to 15 m from the calorimeter. Several off line cuts have been applied to the data. Demanding five particles in at least two of the trigger detectors, a total of 20 particles in all of them together, and an arrival angle for the shower 450 deg reduced the data sample to 11053 events. Of these in 4869 cases, a computer algorithm found at least three muons in the calorimeter

The composition of cosmic rays near the Bend (10 to the 15th power eV) from a study of muons in air showers at sea level

The distribution of muons near shower cores was studied at sea level at Fermilab using the E594 neutrino detector to sample the muon with E testing 3 GeV. These data are compared with detailed Monte Carlo simulations to derive conclusions about the composition of cosmic rays near the bend in the all particle spectrum. Monte Carlo simulations generating extensive air showers (EAS) with primary energy in excess of 50 TeV are described. Each shower record contains details of the electron lateral distribution and the muon and hadron lateral distributions as a function of energy, at the observation level of 100g/cm. The number of detected electrons and muons in each case was determined by a Poisson fluctuation of the number incident. The resultant predicted distribution of muons, electrons, the rate events are compared to those observed. Preliminary results on the rate favor a heavy primary dominated cosmic ray spectrum in energy range 50 to 1000 TeV

What is the impact of public care on children's welfare? A review of research findings from England and Wales and their policy implications.

The outcomes for children in public care are generally considered to be poor. This has contributed to a focus on reducing the number of children in care: a goal that is made explicit in the provisions of the current Children and Young Persons Bill. Yet while children in care do less well than most children on a range of measures, such comparisons do not disentangle the extent to which these difficulties pre-dated care and the specific impact of care on child welfare. This article explores the specific impact of care through a review of British research since 1991 that provides data on changes in child welfare over time for children in care. Only 12 studies were identified, indicating a lack of research in this important area. The studies consistently found that children entering care tended to have serious problems but that in general their welfare improved over time. This finding is consistent with the international literature. It has important policy implications. Most significantly it suggests that attempts to reduce the use of public care are misguided, and may place more children at risk of serious harm. Instead, it is argued that England and Wales should move toward a Scandinavian system of public care, in which care is seen as a form of family support and is provided for more rather than fewer children and families

The stationary phase point method for transitional scattering: diffractive radio scintillation for pulsar

The stationary phase point (SPP) method in one-dimensional case is introduced to treat the diffractive scintillation. From weak scattering, where the SPP number N=1, to strong scattering (N$\gg$1), via transitional scattering regime (N$\sim$2,3), we find that the modulation index of intensity experiences the monotonically increasing from 0 to 1 with the scattering strength, characterized by the ratio of Fresnel scale \rf to diffractive scale \rdiff.Comment: Hanas Meeting paper, appear in ChJAA, 2006, 6, Su

Transition temperature of a dilute homogeneous imperfect Bose gas

The leading-order effect of interactions on a homogeneous Bose gas is theoretically predicted to shift the critical temperature by an amount \Delta\Tc = # a_{scatt} n^{1/3} T_0 from the ideal gas result T_0, where a_{scatt} is the scattering length and n is the density. There have been several different theoretical estimates for the numerical coefficient #. We claim to settle the issue by measuring the numerical coefficient in a lattice simulation of O(2) phi^4 field theory in three dimensions---an effective theory which, as observed previously in the literature, can be systematically matched to the dilute Bose gas problem to reproduce non-universal quantities such as the critical temperature. We find # = 1.32 +- 0.02.Comment: 4 pages, submitted to Phys. Rev. Lett; minor changes due to improvement of analysis in the longer companion pape

Radio-wave propagation through a medium containing electron-density fluctuations described by an anisotropic Goldreich-Sridhar spectrum

We study the propagation of radio waves through a medium possessing density fluctuations that are elongated along the ambient magnetic field and described by an anisotropic Goldreich-Sridhar power spectrum. We derive general formulas for the wave phase structure function, visibility, angular broadening, diffraction-pattern length scales, and scintillation time scale for arbitrary distributions of turbulence along the line of sight, and specialize these formulas to idealized cases.Comment: 25 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Ap