Higher-Order Contingentism, Part 1: Closure and Generation

This paper is a study of higher-order contingentism – the view, roughly, that it is contingent what properties and propositions there are. We explore the motivations for this view and various ways in which it might be developed, synthesizing and expanding on work by Kit Fine, Robert Stalnaker, and Timothy Williamson. Special attention is paid to the question of whether the view makes sense by its own lights, or whether articulating the view requires drawing distinctions among possibilities that, according to the view itself, do not exist to be drawn. The paper begins with a non-technical exposition of the main ideas and technical results, which can be read on its own. This exposition is followed by a formal investigation of higher-order contingentism, in which the tools of variable-domain intensional model theory are used to articulate various versions of the view, understood as theories formulated in a higher-order modal language. Our overall assessment is mixed: higher-order contingentism can be fleshed out into an elegant systematic theory, but perhaps only at the cost of abandoning some of its original motivations

Counting Incompossibles

We often speak as if there are merely possible people—for example, when we make such claims as that most possible people are never going to be born. Yet most metaphysicians deny that anything is both possibly a person and never born. Since our unreflective talk of merely possible people serves to draw non-trivial distinctions, these metaphysicians owe us some paraphrase by which we can draw those distinctions without committing ourselves to there being merely possible people. We show that such paraphrases are unavailable if we limit ourselves to the expressive resources of even highly infinitary first-order modal languages. We then argue that such paraphrases are available in higher-order modal languages only given certain strong assumptions concerning the metaphysics of properties. We then consider alternative paraphrase strategies, and argue that none of them are tenable. If talk of merely possible people cannot be paraphrased, then it must be taken at face value, in which case it is necessary what individuals there are. Therefore, if it is contingent what individuals there are, then the demands of paraphrase place tight constraints on the metaphysics of properties: either (i) it is necessary what properties there are, or (ii) necessarily equivalent properties are identical, and having properties does not entail even possibly being anything at all

Total Number of Alterations in Liquid Biopsies Is an Independent Predictor of Survival in Patients With Advanced Cancers.

PurposeStudies have demonstrated an association between quantity of circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) and poorer survival. We investigated the relationship between percent ctDNA (%ctDNA), total number of ctDNA alterations, and overall survival (OS) in liquid biopsies.Materials and methodsOverall, 418 patients with blood-based next-generation sequencing (54 to 73 genes) were analyzed. Eligible patients included those who had advanced/metastatic solid tumor malignancies and never received immunotherapy treatment, which may alter the survival curve in patients with high mutational burden.ResultsPatients with a high (≥ 5%) %ctDNA had significantly shorter OS versus those with intermediate (≥ 0.4% to < 5%) or low (< 0.4%) values (median OS, 7.0 v 14.1 v not reached [NR] months, respectively; P < .0001). Patients with a high (≥ 5) total number of alterations had significantly shorter OS versus those with intermediate (≥ 1.46 to < 5), low (< 1.46), or no alterations (median OS, 4.6 v 11.7 v 21.3 v NR months, respectively; P < .0001). The total number of alterations correlated with %ctDNA (r = 0.85; 95% CI, 0.81 to 0.87; P < .0001). However, only an intermediate to high total number of alterations (≥ 1.46) was an independent predictor of worse OS (hazard ratio, 1.96; 95% CI, 1.30 to 2.96; P = .0014; multivariate analysis).ConclusionWe demonstrate that the total number of alterations and %ctDNA have prognostic value and correlate with one another, but only the total number of alterations was independently associated with survival outcomes. Our findings suggest that the total number of alterations in plasma may be an indicator of more aggressive tumor biology and therefore poorer survival

BIS-BAS, dispositional influences on cardiac reactivity to naturally occurring stressors

Research has relied primarily on laboratory settings to examine how emotions and physiology are affected by acute experiences of stress. This is because it is difficult to manipulate acute stress outside the lab and without a discrete manipulation it is difficult to measure physiological and emotional arousal during acute stress. This study found evidence that everyday stress predicts temporary changes in blood pressure. The purpose of this study was to investigate Gray\u27s (1987) behavioral inhibition (BIS) and behavioral activation (BAS) systems, and to identify divergent cardiovascular and emotional outcomes to natural stressors for each of these systems. The data from a set of within-day analyses do not suggest that BIS and BAS moderate the association between blood pressure, heart rate, and momentary affect (frustration, happiness, sadness, and stress) to everyday stress. End of day analyses examined potential enduring effects of stress. The data suggest that there are gender differences in the extent to which everyday stress predicts end of day averages of blood pressure and heart rate. Women had lower overall systolic blood pressure, including on more stressful days. In contrast, men tended to have higher systolic and diastolic blood pressure during stress, and a trend suggested that they have higher diastolic blood pressure on more stressful days. In addition, the data suggest that sensitivity to BIS and BAS is associated with daily affect. In particular, BIS sensitivity predicted daily negative affect and BAS sensitivity predicted both daily positive affect as well as greater positive affect on days with more stressors

Introducing the Global Diffusion of the Internet Series

While there is no shortage of commentary on the nature and impact of the Internet, a deep understanding of this phenomenon and its diffusion must go beyond the collection of factoids, such as the number of hosts and users, to capture the context within which the Internet evolves. This paper introduces a CAIS series entitled The Global Diffusion of the Internet, which seeks to promote research efforts that contribute to our understanding of the diffusion of the Internet throughout the world, that create and apply analytic frameworks that permit comparative analyses, and that capture the rather perishable history of the Internet as it unfolds. Contributions by scholars from parts of the world that are under-represented among the AIS membership are particularly encouraged

The Internet in Turkey and Pakistan: A Comparative Analysis

The Global Diffusion of the Internet Project was initiated in 1997 to study the diffusion and absorption of the Internet to, and within, many diverse countries. This research has resulted in an ongoing series of reports and articles that have developed an analytic framework for evaluating the Internet within countries and applied it to more than 25 countries. (Seehttp://mosaic.unomaha.edu/gdi.html for links to some of these reports and articles.) The current report applies the analytic framework to compare and contrast the Internet experiences of Turkey and Pakistan, through mid-2000. Although historically these countries have not been closely related, there are significant parallels between the two that make them well suited for a comparative study of the absorption of the Internet. Turkey and Pakistan are among the largest non-Arab Muslim countries in the world. In contrast to most of their Arab counterparts, their governments were founded as secular, parliamentary democracies. Both countries have had stormy political histories, however, with periodic coups and authoritarian governments. Each country has firmly entrenched bureaucracies with closed and, to varying degrees, corrupt processes