Auto-tail dependence coefficients for stationary solutions of linear stochastic recurrence equations and for GARCH(1,1)

We examine the auto-dependence structure of strictly stationary solutions of linear stochastic recurrence equations and of strictly stationary GARCH(1, 1) processes from the point of view of ordinary and generalized tail dependence coefficients. Since such processes can easily be of infinite variance, a substitute for the usual auto-correlation function is needed

Cost-Effectiveness of Alternative Blood-Screening Strategies for West Nile Virus in the United States

BACKGROUND: West Nile virus (WNV) is endemic in the US, varying seasonally and by geographic region. WNV can be transmitted by blood transfusion, and mandatory screening of blood for WNV was recently introduced throughout the US. Guidelines for selecting cost-effective strategies for screening blood for WNV do not exist. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis for screening blood for WNV using a computer-based mathematical model, and using data from prospective studies, retrospective studies, and published literature. For three geographic areas with varying WNV-transmission intensity and length of transmission season, the model was used to estimate lifetime costs, quality-adjusted life expectancy, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios associated with alternative screening strategies in a target population of blood-transfusion recipients. We compared the status quo (baseline screening using a donor questionnaire) to several strategies which differed by nucleic acid testing of either pooled or individual samples, universal versus targeted screening of donations designated for immunocompromised patients, and seasonal versus year-long screening. In low-transmission areas with short WNV seasons, screening by questionnaire alone was the most cost-effective strategy. In areas with high levels of WNV transmission, seasonal screening of individual samples and restricting screening to blood donations designated for immunocompromised recipients was the most cost-effective strategy. Seasonal screening of the entire recipient pool added minimal clinical benefit, with incremental cost-effectiveness ratios exceeding US$1.7 million per quality-adjusted life-year gained. Year-round screening offered no additional benefit compared to seasonal screening in any of the transmission settings. CONCLUSIONS: In areas with high levels of WNV transmission, seasonal screening of individual samples and restricting screening to blood donations designated for immunocompromised recipients is cost saving. In areas with low levels of infection, a status-quo strategy using a standard questionnaire is cost-effective

Nonlinear effects in superconducting thin film microwave resonators

We discuss how reactive and dissipative non-linearities affect the intrinsic response of superconducting thin-film resonators. We explain how most, if not all, of the complex phenomena commonly seen can be described by a model in which the underlying resonance is a single-pole Lorentzian, but whose centre frequency and quality factor change as external parameters, such as readout power and frequency, are varied. What is seen during a vector-network-analyser measurement is series of samples taken from an ideal Lorentzian that is shifting and spreading as the readout frequency is changed. According to this model, it is perfectly proper to refer to, and measure, the resonant frequency and quality factor of the underlying resonance, even though the swept-frequency curves appear highly distorted and hysteretic. In those cases where the resonance curve is highly distorted, the specific shape of the trajectory in the Argand plane gives valuable insights into the second-order physical processes present. We discuss the formulation and consequences of this approach in the case of non-linear kinetic inductance, two-level-system loss, quasiparticle generation, and a generic model based on a power-law form. The generic model captures the key features of specific dissipative non-linearities, but additionally leads to insights into how general dissipative processes create characteristic forms in the Argand plane. We provide detailed formulations in each case, and indicate how they lead to the wide variety of phenomena commonly seen in experimental data. We also explain how the properties of the underlying resonance can be extracted from this data. Overall, our paper provides a self-contained compendium of behaviour that will help practitioners interpret and determine important parameters from distorted swept-frequency measurements

Robots in Retirement Homes: Applying Off-the-Shelf Planning and Scheduling to a Team of Assistive Robots

This paper investigates three different technologies for solving a planning and scheduling problem of deploying multiple robots in a retirement home environment to assist elderly residents. The models proposed make use of standard techniques and solvers developed in AI planning and scheduling, with two primary motivations. First, to find a planning and scheduling solution that we can deploy in our real-world application. Second, to evaluate planning and scheduling technology in terms of the ``model-and-solve'' functionality that forms a major research goal in both domain-independent planning and constraint programming. Seven variations of our application are studied using the following three technologies: PDDL-based planning, time-line planning and scheduling, and constraint-based scheduling. The variations address specific aspects of the problem that we believe can impact the performance of the technologies while also representing reasonable abstractions of the real world application. We evaluate the capabilities of each technology and conclude that a constraint-based scheduling approach, specifically a decomposition using constraint programming, provides the most promising results for our application. PDDL-based planning is able to find mostly low quality solutions while the timeline approach was unable to model the full problem without alterations to the solver code, thus moving away from the model-and-solve paradigm. It would be misleading to conclude that constraint programming is ``better'' than PDDL-based planning in a general sense, both because we have examined a single application and because the approaches make different assumptions about the knowledge one is allowed to embed in a model. Nonetheless, we believe our investigation is valuable for AI planning and scheduling researchers as it highlights these different modelling assumptions and provides insight into avenues for the application of AI planning and scheduling for similar robotics problems. In particular, as constraint programming has not been widely applied to robot planning and scheduling in the literature, our results suggest significant untapped potential in doing so.California Institute of Technology. Keck Institute for Space Studie

Affective Experience, Desire, and Reasons for Action

What is the role of affective experience in explaining how our desires provide us with reasons for action? When we desire that p, we are thereby disposed to feel attracted to the prospect that p, or to feel averse to the prospect that not-p. In this paper, we argue that affective experiences – including feelings of attraction and aversion – provide us with reasons for action in virtue of their phenomenal character. Moreover, we argue that desires provide us with reasons for action only insofar as they are dispositions to have affective experiences. On this account, affective experience has a central role to play in explaining how desires provide reasons for action

Identification of Graphene Dispersion Agents through Molecular Fingerprints

The scalable production and dispersion of 2D materials, like graphene, is critical to enable their use in commercial applications. While liquid exfoliation is commonly used, solvents such as N-methyl-pyrrolidone (NMP) are toxic and difficult to scale up. However, the search for alternative solvents is hindered by the intimidating size of the chemical space. Here, we present a computational pipeline informing the identification of effective exfoliation agents. Classical molecular dynamics simulations provide statistical sampling of interactions, enabling the identification of key molecular descriptors for a successful solvent. The statistically representative configurations from these simulations, studied with quantum mechanical calculations, allow us to gain insights onto the chemophysical interactions at the surface–solvent interface. As an exemplar, through this pipeline we identify a potential graphene exfoliation agent 2-pyrrolidone and experimentally demonstrate it to be as effective as NMP. Our workflow can be generalized to any 2D material and solvent system, enabling the screening of a wide range of compounds and solvents to identify safer and cheaper means of producing dispersions