Public Evidence from Secret Ballots

Elections seem simple---aren't they just counting? But they have a unique, challenging combination of security and privacy requirements. The stakes are high; the context is adversarial; the electorate needs to be convinced that the results are correct; and the secrecy of the ballot must be ensured. And they have practical constraints: time is of the essence, and voting systems need to be affordable and maintainable, and usable by voters, election officials, and pollworkers. It is thus not surprising that voting is a rich research area spanning theory, applied cryptography, practical systems analysis, usable security, and statistics. Election integrity involves two key concepts: convincing evidence that outcomes are correct and privacy, which amounts to convincing assurance that there is no evidence about how any given person voted. These are obviously in tension. We examine how current systems walk this tightrope.Comment: To appear in E-Vote-Id '1

Injectable Poly-l-Lactic Acid: A Novel Sculpting Agent for the Treatment of Dermal Fat Atrophy After Severe Acne

Acne vulgaris affects up to 80% of people 11 to 30 years of age, and scarring can occur for up to 95% of these patients. Scarring may be pitted or hypertrophic in nature, although in most cases it is atrophic. Atrophic acne scarring follows dermal collagen and fat loss after moderate to severe acne infection. Injectable poly-L-acid (PLLA) is a biocompatible, biodegradable, synthetic polymer device that is hypothesized to enhance dermal volume via the endogenous production of fibroblasts and, subsequently, collagen. The gradual improvements in cutaneous volume observed after treatment with injectable PLLA have been noted to last up to 2 years. The case studies presented describe the use of injectable PLLA to correct dermal fat loss in macular atrophic acne scarring of the cheeks. Two female patients underwent three treatment sessions with injectable PLLA over a 12-week period. At each treatment session, the reconstituted product was injected into the deep dermis under the depressed portion of the scar. Both patients were extremely pleased with their results at, respectively, 1- and 4-year follow-up evaluations. Patients experienced minimal swelling and redness after injection and no product-related adverse events such as papule and/or nodule formation. The author believes these data suggest that injectable PLLA is a good treatment option for the correction of macular atropic scarring with thin dermis (off-label use), particularly compared with other injectable fillers currently used for this indication that have shorter durations of effect

A pre-registered short-term forecasting study of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland during the second wave.

Disease modelling has had considerable policy impact during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, and it is increasingly acknowledged that combining multiple models can improve the reliability of outputs. Here we report insights from ten weeks of collaborative short-term forecasting of COVID-19 in Germany and Poland (12 October-19 December 2020). The study period covers the onset of the second wave in both countries, with tightening non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and subsequently a decay (Poland) or plateau and renewed increase (Germany) in reported cases. Thirteen independent teams provided probabilistic real-time forecasts of COVID-19 cases and deaths. These were reported for lead times of one to four weeks, with evaluation focused on one- and two-week horizons, which are less affected by changing NPIs. Heterogeneity between forecasts was considerable both in terms of point predictions and forecast spread. Ensemble forecasts showed good relative performance, in particular in terms of coverage, but did not clearly dominate single-model predictions. The study was preregistered and will be followed up in future phases of the pandemic