Improved forecasting of thermospheric densities using multi-model ensembles

This paper presents the first known application of multi-model ensembles to the forecasting of the thermosphere. A multi-model ensemble (MME) is a method for combining different, independent models. The main advantage of using an MME is to reduce the effect of model errors and bias, since it is expected that the model errors will, at least partly, cancel. The MME, with its reduced uncertainties, can then be used as the initial conditions in a physics-based thermosphere model for forecasting. This should increase the forecast skill since a reduction in the errors of the initial conditions of a model generally increases model skill. In this paper the Thermosphere–Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM), the US Naval Research Laboratory Mass Spectrometer and Incoherent Scatter radar Exosphere 2000 (NRLMSISE-00), and Global Ionosphere–Thermosphere Model (GITM) have been used to construct the MME. As well as comparisons between the MMEs and the “standard” runs of the model, the MME densities have been propagated forward in time using the TIE-GCM. It is shown that thermospheric forecasts of up to 6 h, using the MME, have a reduction in the root mean square error of greater than 60 %. The paper also highlights differences in model performance between times of solar minimum and maximum

A Methodology for Professional Education in Agriculture Based on a Study of the Professional Cycle

Context: The incorporation and stability of youth education in the agricultural sector ensures sustainability and preservation of the social system, but it has also generated new social needs in the country, and consequently, insufficiencies in the curricular process that limit the performance of the technical staff, so that they can play a role in the implementation and development of agricultural processes, in keeping with the need to boost this sector in Cuba. Aim: To implement a methodology that enables positive changes in the professional performance of technicians, from the curricular design of the professional cycle of technicians. Methods: Several theoretical, empirical, and statistical methods were implemented to assess the information found in the literature consulted, the study of regulations, and opinions of specialists, as well as its practical application to assess the outcome from implementation. Results: The methodology used evidenced positive changes in the professional performance of technicians, with emphasis on professional problems, and in-depth characterization of the degree. Conclusions: The results achieved were positive, evidenced in the changes observed in the performance of the technical professionals. The feasibility and pertinences of the results achieved at Martires de Pino Tres Polytechnic School, in the province of Camagüey, were corroborated

Development of Professional Skills through Subject Animal Anatomophysiology

Context: One of the most important problems of pedagogical work in higher education is the process of professional skills training, which is part of professional education, in which scientific information should be applied in a creative manner to provide solutions to the problems of society. Aim: To contribute to the development of professional skills through subject Animal Anatomophysiology. Methods: Theoretical and empirical research methods were used, which demonstrated the insufficient development of professional skills in subject Animal Anatomophysiology, in students of the Agricultural Education Degree. Results: A methodological guide that allows students to systematize professional skills through subject Animal Anatomophysiology is provided. Conclusions: This methodological guide is a way to develop professional skills through subject Animal Anatomophysiology in students of the Agricultural Education Degree, based on the implementation of concrete actions in a flexible manner, and using several different levels of complexity

Desarrollo de las habilidades profesionales en la asignatura Anatomofisiología animal

Context: One of the most important problems in pedagogical work in Higher Education is the process of training professional skills, which is very important because it is where professionals are trained who must creatively apply scientific information in solving problems that society presents. Methods: Theoretical and empirical research methods were used, evidencing the insufficient development of professional skills in the Animal Anatomophysiology course, of the students of the Agricultural Education career. Result: a methodological guide is offered that allows students to systematize professional skills in the Animal Anatomophysiology course. Conclusions: The methodological guide that is presented constitutes a way for the development of professional skills in the Animal Anatomophysiology course , of the students of the Agricultural Education career, based on the systematicity in the execution of concrete actions, in a flexible way and with different degrees of complexity.Contexto: Uno de los problemas más importantes en el trabajo pedagógico en la Educación Superior es el proceso de formación de habilidades profesionales, lo que toma gran importancia porque es donde se forman los profesionales que deben aplicar creadoramente la información científica en la solución de los problemas que presenta la sociedad. Objetivo: Contribuir al desarrollo de habilidades profesionales en la asignatura Anatomofisiologia animal. Métodos: Se emplearon métodos de investigación del nivel teórico y empírico, evidenciándose el insuficiente desarrollo de las habilidades profesionales en la asignatura Anatomofisiología animal, de los estudiantes de la carrera Educación Agropecuaria. Resultados: se ofrece una guía metodológica que permite a los estudiantes para logren sistematizar las habilidades profesionales en la asignatura Anatomofisiología animal. Conclusiones: La guía metodológica que se presenta constituye una vía para el desarrollo de las habilidades profesionales en la asignatura Anatomofisiologia animal, de los estudiantes de la carrera Educación Agropecuaria, a partir de la sistematicidad en la ejecución de acciones concretas, de manera flexible y con diferentes grados de complejidad

Metodología para la formación del profesional en la especialidad Agropecuaria desde el estudio del ciclo profesional

Context: The incorporation and stability of youth training in the agricultural sector, ensures the sustainability and preservation of the social system, but at the same time it has generated new social needs in the country, and consequently insufficiencies in the curricular process that limit the technical professional performance of the same, so that they can perform in the execution and development of agricultural processes in correspondence with the call to promote this much-needed sector in Cuba. Objective: To apply a methodology that, from the curricular design of the technical professional cycle, manages to promote positive changes in the professional performance of the technicians. Methods: Theoretical, empirical and statistical methods were applied to assess the information in the bibliography consulted, study of normative documents and opinions of specialists, as well as the application in practice to assess the results of its introduction. Results: The applied methodology showed positive changes in the professional performance of the technicians, specifying the professional problems and achieving a deep characterization of the career. Conclusions: The results obtained reflect achievements, evidenced in the changes obtained in technical professional performance. The feasibility and relevance of the contributions presented at the "Mártires de Pino Tres" Polytechnic Institute of the province of Camagüey are corroborated.Contexto: La incorporación y estabilidad  de la formación de los jóvenes en el sector agropecuario, asegura la sostenibilidad y preservación del sistema social, pero a su vez ha generado nuevas necesidades sociales en el país, y en consecuencia insuficiencias en el proceso curricular que limitan el desempeño profesional técnico de los mismos, de forma tal que puedan desempeñarse en la ejecución y desarrollo de los procesos agropecuarios en correspondencia con el llamado a impulsar este sector tan necesario en Cuba. Objetivo: Aplicar una metodología que, desde el diseño curricular del ciclo profesional técnico, logre propiciar cambios positivos en el desempeño profesional de los técnicos. Métodos: Se aplicaron métodos del nivel teórico, empíricos y estadísticos, para valorar la información de la bibliografía consultada, estudio de documentos normativo y opiniones de especialistas, así como la aplicación en la práctica para valorar los resultados de su introducción. Resultados: La metodología aplicada evidenció cambios positivos en el desempeño profesional de los técnicos, precisándose los problemas profesionales y lográndose una caracterización profunda de la carrera. Conclusiones: Los resultados obtenidos reflejan logros, evidenciados en los cambios obtenidos en el desempeño profesional técnico. Se corrobora la factibilidad y pertinencia de los aportes presentados en el Instituto Politécnico Agropecuario "Mártires de Pino Tres" de la provincia Camagüey

Data Assimilation, Adaptive Observations and Applications

Sensitivity analysis, data assimilation and targeting observation strategies are methods that are applied to various complex mathematical models of fluid dynamics. In this research we investigate new directions to improve on the current strategies used to deploy additional observational resources (targeting strategies) for data assimilation in dynamical systems of fluid mechanics. Targeting strategies aim to determine optimal locations where additional observations will improve the solution of the data assimilation process by identifying regions where state errors in the model have a high potential to grow. Properly accounting for nonlinear error growth is an unresolved issue in targeted observations for numerical weather prediction (NWP). A novel observation-targeting approach based on derivative information from a second order adjoint (SOA) model is proposed to account for the quadratic initial-condition error growth in the model forecasts. Preliminary numerical experiments performed with a two-dimensional shallowwater model indicate that the SOA methodology is effective and may outperform the traditional first-order adjoint approach to targeted observations. Further experiments are required to validate this methodology in realistic NWP models. The impact of model errors on the targeting strategy is also investigated. The motivation being to investigate the validity of the common assumption made to facilitate the practical implementation of 4D-Var, namely that the model representing the dynamical system is perfect. This assumption is not generally valid in real life since representation and numerical errors are present in the models. To asses the impact of model errors in the singular vectors targeting strategy, the derivatives of the singular vectors with respect to the tangent linear model are used. Numerical experiments with a shallow water model show that the derivatives provide a first order approximation to the expected change in the sensitivity fields due to perturbations in the model. Additionally, a parametric sensitivity analysis of a new resolving cloud-aerosol model is presented. This cloud model has smooth dependence on input parameters and data, enabling the computation of derivatives and thus a more amenable sensitivity analysis. The relationship between a key parameter and model output is explored and analyzed