A policy-sensible core-inflation measure for the euro area

Although the concept of core inflation is apparently well defined and intuitively appealing, its practical usefulness has often been questioned on at least two accounts: first, existing core inflation measures are by and large exclusively based on statistical criteria and thus lack a firm theoretical justification; second, there appears to be no generally accepted and plausible criterion to assess the empirical performance of competing measures. Both criticisms are indeed justified. In this paper we propose an approach to build a benchmark measure of core inflation that aims to overcome those drawbacks. Our measure is based on a criterion that explicitly treats core inflation as a wholly artificial concept whose usefulness rests only on its role in defuse inflationary pressures that may be in the pipeline. Our measure is obtained by conveniently combining disaggregate information coming from price sub-indices, as is the case for the most popular core inflation measures. However, we depart from all other approaches by combining the information available in price sub-indices in such a way so as to provide the best guidance to a forward-looking monetary policy-maker. Accordingly, our measure of core inflation is based on the solution of a standard monetary policy optimisation problem. We illustrate our approach using a simple estimated model of the euro-area economy and appraise the performance of a few of the most popular core inflation measures in use. We find, generally speaking, that one cannot recommend that those measures be used to support monetary policy-making.core inflation, optimal monetary policy rules, Eurosystem

Housing rent dynamics in Italy

In this paper we focus on tenant rents in Italy and compare results from several methods for the rent dynamic estimation. We first document the sources of data available and then introduce quality-adjusted techniques, which enable us to separate the price variation due to qualitative changes in housing attributes from pure price changes. Finally, we compare these measures with unconditional and matched-type price indices derived from microdata. Over the period 1998-2006, we estimate a cumulative rent increase ranging between 40 and 80%. The upper bound refers to the average dynamic for a subset of flats entering the market in a given period. The hedonic approach suggests a substantially lower overall growth in tenant rent, around 40% for the same period.Hedonic regressions, Matched-models, CPI, Downward bias

Tracking India Growth in Real Time.

Tracking growth in the Indian economy would be best performed using a measure like GDP. Unfortunately official estimates of this indicator are released with quarterly frequency and with considerable delay. This paper compares different approaches to the short term forecasting (nowcasting) of real GDP growth in India and evaluates methods to optimally gauge the current state of the economy. Univariate quarterly models are compared with bridge models that exploit the available monthly indicators containing information on current quarter developments. In the forecasting exercise we perform a pseudo real-time simulation: by properly taking into account the actual publication lags of the series, we replicate the information set available to the policymaker at each point of time. We find that bridge models perform satisfactorily in predicting current quarter GDP growth. This result follows from the actual estimation technique used to construct the official quarterly national accounts, still largely dependent on a narrow information set. Our analysis also suggests mixed evidences about the additional predictive power of Indian survey data with respect to the hard data already used in the national accounts.Nowcasting ; Bridge model ; Factor model ; Emerging markets ; India

How to measure inflation in India?

What is the best inflation measure in India? What inflation measure is most relevant for monetary policy making in India? Questions of timeliness, weights in the price index, accuracy of food price measurement, and inclusion of services prices are relevant to the choice of measure. We show that under present conditions of measurement, the Consumer Price Index for Industrial Workers (CPI-IW) is preferable to either the Wholesale Price Index or the GDP deflator.Monetary policy ; Inflation measure ; Statistical system

Consumer price behaviour in Italy: evidence from micro CPI data

This paper investigates the behaviour of consumer prices in Italy by looking at micro data in the attempt to obtain a quantitative measure of the unconditional degree of price rigidity in the Italian economy. The analysis focuses on the monthly frequency of price changes and on the duration of price spells, also with reference to different types of products and outlets. Prices tend to remain unchanged on average for around 10 months; duration is longer for nonenergy industrial goods and services and much shorter for energy products. Price changes are more frequent upward than downward, in larger stores than in traditional ones. When the geographical location of outlets is accounted for, price changes display considerable synchronisation, in particular in the service sector. JEL Classification: D21, D40, E31consumer prices, frequency of price change, nominal rigidity

CONSUMER PRICE SETTING IN ITALY

This paper investigates the microeconomic behaviour of consumer prices in Italy using the individual price records underlying the Italian CPI dataset collected by Istat. We discuss how to analyse price stickiness using such a detailed database and compute a quantitative measure of the unconditional degree of price rigidity in the Italian economy. The analysis focuses on the monthly frequency of price changes and on the duration of price spells, with a sectoral breakdown as well as with a classification by type of outlet. Prices are in general found to be rather sticky, remaining unchanged on average for around 10 months; price spells last longer for non-energy industrial goods and services, much less for energy products. Prices are revised more frequently upwards than downwards, while the size of price changes is quite symmetric. Price st ickiness is found to be less marked in large modern stores than in smaller traditional shops. Price changes display considerable synchronisation, in particular in the services sector. The average frequency of price changes and the probability of observing a price change over time and across items are positively related to headline inflation and increases in VAT rates and negatively related to the share of attractive prices. These findings are consistent with the ones reported in similar national studies for other countries of the euro area, which were conducted by the National Central Banks within the Eurosystem Inflation Persistence Network.consumer prices, nominal rigidity, frequency of price change

A core inflation index for the euro area

This paper proposes an index of core inflation for the euro area which exploits information from a large panel of time series on disaggregated prices, industrial production, labor market indicators, financial and monetary variables. The index is the result of a smoothing operation at both the cross-sectional and time series level. By extracting the common component of national inflation and disregarding the idiosyncratic one, we clean inflation from measurement error, discrepancies in data recording and dynamics originated by national or sectoral idiosyncratic shocks (cross-sectional smoothing). By extracting the component with periodicity longer than one year we clean from high frequency variation and seasonal components which are not relevant for monetary policy (time series smoothing). The indicator is shown to have a number of desirable characteristics and to perform very well as a forecaster of the euro area harmonized consumer price index at one and two years horizon, which is the relevant horizon for the ECB monetary policy.core inflation, dynamic factor model, inflation forecast and monetary policy

New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time

This paper presents ideas and methods underlying the construction of an indicator that tracks the euro area GDP growth, but, unlike GDP growth, (i) is updated monthly and almost in real time; (ii) is free from hort-run dynamics. Removal of short-run dynamics from a time series, to isolate the mediumlong-run component, can be obtained by a band-pass filter. However, it is well known that band-pass filters, being two-sided, perform very poorly at the end of the sample. New Eurocoin is an estimator of the medium- long-run component of the GDP that only uses contemporaneous values of a large panel of macroeconomic time series, so that no end-of-sample deterioration occurs. Moreover, as our dataset is monthly, New Eurocoin can be updated each month and with a very short delay. Our method is based on generalized principal components that are designed to use leading variables in the dataset as proxies for future values of the GDP growth. As the medium- long-run component of the GDP is observable, although with delay, the performance of New Eurocoin at the end of the sample can be measured.coincident indicator, band-pass filter, large-dataset factor models, generalized principal components

New Eurocoin: Tracking Economic Growth in Real Time

Removal of short-run dynamics from a stationary time series to isolate the medium to long-run component, can be obtained by a band-pass filter. However, band pass filters are infinite moving averages and can therefore deteriorate at the end of the sample. This is a well-known result in the literature isolating the business cycle in integrated series. We show that the same problem arises with our application to stationary time series. In this paper we develop a method to obtain smoothing of a stationary time series by using only contemporaneous values of a large dataset, so that no end-of-sample deterioration occurs. Our construction is based on a special version of Generalized Principal Components, which is designed to use leading variables in the dataset as proxies for missing future values in the variable of interest. Our method is applied to the construction of New Eurocoin, an indicator of economic activity for the euro area. New Eurocoin is an estimate, in real time, of the medium to long-run component of the euro area GDP growth, which performs equally well within and at the end of the sample. As our dataset is monthly and most of the series are updated with a short delay, we are able to produce a monthly, real-time indicator. An assessment of its performance as an approximation of the medium to long-run GDP growth, both in terms of fitting and turning-point signaling, is provided.Coincident Indicator, Band-pass Filter, Large-dataset Factor Models, Generalized Principal Components

The construction of coincident and leading indicators for the euro area business cycler of the euro area business cycle

This paper investigates the business cycle properties of the euro area and computes a coincident and a leading indicator of economic activity. We accomplish this by applying the newly introduced generalized factor model to a properly constructed and harmonized data set of short term statistics of the euro area (794 monthly series). Unlike other methods used in the literature, the procedure takes into consideration the cross-country as well as the withincountry correlation structure and exploits all information on dynamic cross-correlations. As a byproduct of our analysis, we provide a characterization of the commonality and dynamic relations of the series in the data set with respect to the coincident indicator and a dating of the euro area cycle.business cycle, dynamic factor model