Durable resistance to crop pathogens: an epidemiological framework to predict risk under uncertainty.

Increasing the durability of crop resistance to plant pathogens is one of the key goals of virulence management. Despite the recognition of the importance of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the dynamics of an epidemic, their effects on the evolution of the pathogen and durability of resistance has not received attention. We formulated a stochastic epidemiological model, based on the Kramer-Moyal expansion of the Master Equation, to investigate how random fluctuations affect the dynamics of an epidemic and how these effects feed through to the evolution of the pathogen and durability of resistance. We focused on two hypotheses: firstly, a previous deterministic model has suggested that the effect of cropping ratio (the proportion of land area occupied by the resistant crop) on the durability of crop resistance is negligible. Increasing the cropping ratio increases the area of uninfected host, but the resistance is more rapidly broken; these two effects counteract each other. We tested the hypothesis that similar counteracting effects would occur when we take account of demographic stochasticity, but found that the durability does depend on the cropping ratio. Secondly, we tested whether a superimposed external source of stochasticity (for example due to environmental variation or to intermittent fungicide application) interacts with the intrinsic demographic fluctuations and how such interaction affects the durability of resistance. We show that in the pathosystem considered here, in general large stochastic fluctuations in epidemics enhance extinction of the pathogen. This is more likely to occur at large cropping ratios and for particular frequencies of the periodic external perturbation (stochastic resonance). The results suggest possible disease control practises by exploiting the natural sources of stochasticity.GL is funded by the ESPA award “Dynamic Drivers of Disease in Africa Consortium”. The work of FvdB is supported by Rothamsted Research, who receives grant aided assistance from the Biological and Biotechnological Research Council of the United Kingdom. CAG gratefully acknowledges the support of a BBSRC Professorial Fellowship. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.This is the final version of the article. It first appeared from PLOS via http://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.100287

The Effectiveness of Support and Rehabilitation Services for Women Offenders

There is a large body of research evidence suggesting that support, rehabilitation, and supervision programs can help offenders to reduce recidivism. However, the effectiveness of these services is dependent upon the extent to which the workers who deliver them comply with "what works" principles and practices. Because most of this research has been conducted with men, this study focused on the extent to which these principles and practices apply to women. In particular, the study examined services offered to a group of women in prison in Victoria, Australia, and following their release to the community; and the relationship between these women's views about the services, recidivism, and the characteristics of the services. Results were generally consistent with earlier research. The women favoured services that are delivered by workers who are reliable, holistic, collaborative, who understand the women's perspective, and that focus on strengths. They did not support services that challenged the women, focused on their offences, or on the things they did badly

Sediment Delivery to Sustain the Ganges-Brahmaputra Delta Under Climate Change and Anthropogenic Impacts

The principal nature-based solution for offsetting relative sea-level rise in the Ganges-Brahmaputra delta is the unabated delivery, dispersal, and deposition of the rivers’ ~1 billion-tonne annual sediment load. Recent hydrological transport modeling suggests that strengthening monsoon precipitation in the 21st century could increase this sediment delivery 34-60%; yet other studies demonstrate that sediment could decline 15-80% if planned dams and river diversions are fully implemented. We validate these modeled ranges by developing a comprehensive field-based sediment budget that quantifies the supply of Ganges-Brahmaputra river sediment under varying Holocene climate conditions. Our data reveal natural responses in sediment supply comparable to previously modeled results and suggest that increased sediment delivery may be capable of offsetting accelerated sea-level rise. This prospect for a naturally sustained Ganges-Brahmaputra delta presents possibilities beyond the dystopian future often posed for this system, but the implementation of currently proposed dams and diversions would preclude such opportunities

Emergency department triage: an ethical analysis

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Emergency departments across the globe follow a triage system in order to cope with overcrowding. The intention behind triage is to improve the emergency care and to prioritize cases in terms of clinical urgency.</p> <p>Discussion</p> <p>In emergency department triage, medical care might lead to adverse consequences like delay in providing care, compromise in privacy and confidentiality, poor physician-patient communication, failing to provide the necessary care altogether, or even having to decide whose life to save when not everyone can be saved. These consequences challenge the ethical quality of emergency care. This article provides an ethical analysis of "routine" emergency department triage. The four principles of biomedical ethics - viz. respect for autonomy, beneficence, nonmaleficence and justice provide the starting point and help us to identify the ethical challenges of emergency department triage. However, they do not offer a <it>comprehensive </it>ethical view. To address the ethical issues of emergency department triage from a more comprehensive ethical view, the care ethics perspective offers additional insights.</p> <p>Summary</p> <p>We integrate the results from the analysis using four principles of biomedical ethics into care ethics perspective on triage and propose an integrated clinically and ethically based framework of emergency department triage planning, as seen from a comprehensive ethics perspective that incorporates both the principles-based and care-oriented approach.</p

Durable Resistance to Crop Pathogens: An Epidemiological Framework to Predict Risk under Uncertainty

Increasing the durability of crop resistance to plant pathogens is one of the key goals of virulence management. Despite the recognition of the importance of demographic and environmental stochasticity on the dynamics of an epidemic, their effects on the evolution of the pathogen and durability of resistance has not received attention. We formulated a stochastic epidemiological model, based on the Kramer-Moyal expansion of the Master Equation, to investigate how random fluctuations affect the dynamics of an epidemic and how these effects feed through to the evolution of the pathogen and durability of resistance. We focused on two hypotheses: firstly, a previous deterministic model has suggested that the effect of cropping ratio (the proportion of land area occupied by the resistant crop) on the durability of crop resistance is negligible. Increasing the cropping ratio increases the area of uninfected host, but the resistance is more rapidly broken; these two effects counteract each other. We tested the hypothesis that similar counteracting effects would occur when we take account of demographic stochasticity, but found that the durability does depend on the cropping ratio. Secondly, we tested whether a superimposed external source of stochasticity (for example due to environmental variation or to intermittent fungicide application) interacts with the intrinsic demographic fluctuations and how such interaction affects the durability of resistance. We show that in the pathosystem considered here, in general large stochastic fluctuations in epidemics enhance extinction of the pathogen. This is more likely to occur at large cropping ratios and for particular frequencies of the periodic external perturbation (stochastic resonance). The results suggest possible disease control practises by exploiting the natural sources of stochasticity

Parameters.

<p>Values of the parameters used in the simulations. The dimensions of the parameters are expressed in terms of time units (<i>e.g.</i> measured in days) and length units .</p

Resonance and epidemics.

<p>Deterministic (black line) and stochastic (red dots) profiles for the amount of infected host, no immigration. A) The transmission rate <i>β</i> is constant,i.e. no variable disease control is applied (brown line at the top of the figure). B) Resonance mechanism. Here we impose a wave-form transmission rate <i>β</i> with the same mean as in <a href="http://www.ploscompbiol.org/article/info:doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1002870#pcbi-1002870-g006" target="_blank">Figure 6.A</a> (brown line at the top of the figure). This mimics the case when a periodic control is applied. When the frequency of the variable control is close to the natural frequencies of the pathosystem, the amplitudes of the stochastic uctuations dramatically increase.</p