A modulaçâo dos efeitos da decisão do Recurso Extraordinatório (RE) 574.706 excluindo o ICMS da base de cálculo do PIS/COFINS

Trabalho de Conclusão de Curso (graduação)—Universidade de Brasília, Faculdade de Direito, 2018.No dia 15 de março de 2017, o Plenário do Supremo Tribunal Federal (STF) , por maioria, em sessão decidiu que o Imposto Sobre Circulação de Mercadorias e Serviços (ICMS) não integra a base de cálculo das contribuições para o Programa de Integração Social (PIS) e a Contribuição para o Financiamento da Seguridade Social (COFINS). O Recurso Extraordinário (RE) 574706, com repercussão geral reconhecida, reconheceu que o valor arrecadado a título de ICMS, apenas transita, não se incorporando ao patrimônio do contribuinte e, portanto, não integra a base de cálculo dessas contribuições, que são destinadas ao financiamento da seguridade social. A tese em REPERCUSSÃO GERAL firmada foi a de que O ICMS NÃO COMPÕE A BASE DE CÁLCULO PARA FINS DE INCIDÊNCIA DO PIS E DA COFINS. O posicionamento do STF deverá ser seguido em mais de 10 mil processos sobrestados em outras instâncias. Contudo o STF não avançou quanto à modulação dos efeitos da decisão, isso porque não constava no processo pleito nesse sentido, sendo apenas interposta pela Procuradoria da Fazenda da tribuna. A questão foi então suscitada em embargos de declaração interpostos com essa finalidade. O presente trabalho busca reunir os aspectos que norteiam a modulação de efeitos de declaração de inconstitucionalidade de norma tributária segundo a jurisprudência e o normativo legal e constitucional.On March 15, 2017, the Plenary of the Federal Supreme Court (STF), by a majority in session, decided that the Tax on Circulation of Goods and Services (ICMS) does not include the basis for calculating the Contributions to the Social Integration Program (PIS) and the Contribution to the Social Security Financing (COFINS). Extraordinary Appeal (RE) 574706, with accepted general repercussion, acknowledged that the amount collected as ICMS only pass through the taxpayer's assets, not being incorporated into it, as a result, it does not take part of the basis of calculation of these contributions, which are destined to the social security financing. The thesis in GENERAL REPERCUSSION was that ICMS IS NOT INCLUDED IN THE TAX BASIS FOR PIS AND COFINS INCIDENCE PURPOSES. The STF's positioning must be followed in more than 10 thousand processes that have been stayed in its proceedings. However, the STF did not advance in the effects modulating of this decision, since it was not included in the preliminary lawsuit, being subsequently filed by the Public Prosecutor. The issue was then raised in a statement of objections filed for that purpose (a procedural instrument that does not seek to reexamine the merits of a decision, but rather provide clarification). The present work seeks to gather the aspects that guide the modulation of the effects of declaring unconstitutional according to the jurisprudence and the law and constitutional normative

Plasma Waves in Anisotropic Superconducting Films Below and Above the Plasma Frequency

We consider wave propagation inside an anisotropic superconducting film sandwiched between two semi-infinite non-conducting bounding dieletric media such that along the c-axis, perpendicular to the surfaces, there is a plasma frequency $\omega_p$ below the superconducting gap. Propagation is assumed to be parallel to the surfaces in the dielectric medium, where amplitudes decay exponentially.Below $\omega_p$, the amplitude also evanesces inside the film, and we retrieve the experimentally measured lower dispersion relation branch, $\omega \propto \sqrt{\beta}$, and the recently proposed higher frequency branch, $\omega \propto 1/\sqrt{\beta}$.Above $\omega_p$, propagation is of the guided wave type, i.e., a dispersive plane wave confined inside the film that reflects into the dielectric interfaces,and the modes are approximately described by $\omega \approx \omega_p \sqrt{ 1+ (\beta/\beta_0)^2}$, where $\beta_0$ is discussed here.Comment: 26 pages,4 figures.Submitte

Prevendo o crescimento da produção industrial usando um número limitado de combinações de previsões

The purpose of this article is to propose and evaluate forecasting models for the Brazilian industrial GDP. Most models are based on vector auto-regressions (VARs) or on restricted VARs, but models on the ARMA class are also entertained. We used many forecasting models and also combinations of these models. The use of cointegration vectors improves substantially the forecast performance of industrial GDP. Furthermore, in general, combining models out-performed individual models, even when the performance of the later was acceptable.O objetivo central deste artigo é o de propor e avaliar modelos econométricos de previsão para o PIB industrial brasileiro. Para tanto, foram utilizados diversos modelos de previsão como também combinações de modelos. Foi realizada uma análise criteriosa das séries a serem utilizadas na previsão. Nós concluímos que a utilização de vetores de cointegração melhora substancialmente a performance da previsão. Além disso, os modelos de combinação de previsão, na maioria dos casos, tiveram uma performance superior aos demais modelos, que já apresentavam boa capacidade preditiva

Novo indicador coincidente para a atividade industrial brasileira

In this paper we perform and evaluate, in sample, some methodologies for building of coincident indicators focusing on the detection of business cycle of the Industrial activity. Specifically, we try a version of coincident indicator based on the coincident indicator for economy of the TCB (The Conference Board), a modified version in which the volatility is modeled, a Stock-Watson approach and a Mariano-Murasawa approach. We conclude that, in general, the TCB index out-performs the others methods tested, being competitive just with the modified method. Furthermore, The TCB Traditional has the tendency to comprehend the recessives periods of the others, in correspondence with the known recessive periods for industrial activity.Neste trabalho aplicam-se e testam-se, dentro da amostra, algumas metodologias de construção de indicadores coincidentes para atividade industrial visando à detecção de ciclos de crescimento/recessão da atividade industrial. Especificamente, testou-se uma versão baseada no indicador coincidente do The Conference Board (TCB), uma versão modificada deste, na qual as volatilidades são modeladas, a abordagem de Stock-Watson tradicional e, finalmente, testou-se a abordagem de Mariano-Murasawa. Concluiu-se que, em geral, o índice TCB padrão é superior a outros métodos testados, sendo apenas competitivo com o método modificado. Mais ainda, o índice TCB tende a englobar os períodos recessivos apresentados pelos outros índices, sendo correspondentes com os períodos recessivos conhecidos do setor industrial

Construção de Indicadores Antecedentes para a Atividade Industrial Brasileira e Comparação de Metodologias

In this first working paper on leading indicators, we review the literature on the subject and, on this framework, we apply some methods of leading indicators building for industrial activity, testing in-sample, in order to monitor the industrial activity growing and its business cycle detection. Regarding leading series selection for Brazilian case, we support it on recent literature (SPACOV, 2001), testing, selecting the leading series by time leading, Granger-causality and comparison with others works. For leading indicator composition, specifically, we consider the Vectorial Auto-Regressive system, with and without error correction term as well as a simple probit system for business cycle forecast. We conclude, that a VECM can be used successfully and, in-sample, on a visual evaluation, overrule the VAR system and the probit system is quite efficient, despite its simplicity.

Indicadores Coincidentes para a Atividade Industrial Brasileira Baseado em Modelos Vetoriais Auto-Regressivos de Freqüência Mista: comparação de metodologias

Very useful information, usually ignored, for construction of coincident index is the target quarterly series itself. This can be very inefficient because typically the monthly coincident series keep just high economical correlation, not always tested, with the quarterly target series. Actually, the construction of a mixed-frequency coincident index is statistically complicated. On the ground that, Mariano e Murasawa presented a new methodology, in which this information is aggregated, and the quarterly variable is assumed as a latent variable observed just every three months. In this fashion, is implicitly assumed that the monthly GDP not observed represents the state of industrial economy. Usually a common factor is imposed, as in the Stock-Watson approach. Another possible approach more attractive is not to impose any common factor and instead, like Mariano e Murosawa, to build a mixed frequency VAR model without common factor. In this work we compare the performance in-sample of the mixed frequency VAR model for building coincident indicator with others approaches, dating the business cycle for industrial activity with Bry-Boschan procedure.

Construção de Indicadores Coincidentes para a Atividade Industrial Brasileira e Comparação de Metodologias

In this paper we perform and evaluate, in sample, some methodologies for building of coincident indicators focusing on the detection of business cycle of the Industrial activity. In respect of selection of coincident series for the Brazilian case, we will lean on recent literature (SPACOV, 2001). Specifically, we try a version of coincident indicator based on the coincident indicator for economy of the TCB (The Conference Board), a modified version in which the volatility is modeled and a Stock-Watson approach. Finally, we test if the unemployment series can be a good indicator for recession, as in American case, when submitted to a Hamilton Modeling. We conclude that, in general, the TCB index outperform the others methods tested, being competitive just with the modified method. Furthermore, The TCB Traditional has the tendency to comprehend the recessives periods of the others, in correspondence with the known recessive periods for industrial activity. The Stock-Watson approach and the Hamilton modeling are not appropriate for Brazilian Industrial Economy. The former because ignore almost all recessive periods known and the second, on the contrary, since indicates a excessive ones. In addition, we have concluded that when we compare with preceding research, dating made by Duarte, Issler e Spacov for instance, the standard TCB method is superior and most appropriated.

Novo indicador coincidente para a atividade industrial brasileira

Neste trabalho aplicam-se e testam-se, dentro da amostra, algumas metodologias de construção de indicadores coincidentes para atividade industrial visando à detecção de ciclos de crescimento/recessão da atividade industrial. Especificamente, testou-se uma versão baseada no indicador coincidente do The Conference Board (TCB), uma versão modificada deste, na qual as volatilidades são modeladas, a abordagem de Stock-Watson tradicional e, finalmente, testou-se a abordagem de Mariano-Murasawa. Concluiu-se que, em geral, o índice TCB padrão é superior a outros métodos testados, sendo apenas competitivo com o método modificado. Mais ainda, o índice TCB tende a englobar os períodos recessivos apresentados pelos outros índices, sendo correspondentes com os períodos recessivos conhecidos do setor industrial

Prevendo o crescimento da produção industrial usando um número limitado de combinações de previsões

O objetivo central deste artigo é o de propor e avaliar modelos econométricos de previsão para o PIB industrial brasileiro. Para tanto, foram utilizados diversos modelos de previsão como também combinações de modelos. Foi realizada uma análise criteriosa das séries a serem utilizadas na previsão. Nós concluímos que a utilização de vetores de cointegração melhora substancialmente a performance da previsão. Além disso, os modelos de combinação de previsão, na maioria dos casos, tiveram uma performance superior aos demais modelos, que já apresentavam boa capacidade preditiva.The purpose of this article is to propose and evaluate forecasting models for the Brazilian industrial GDP. Most models are based on vector auto-regressions (VARs) or on restricted VARs, but models on the ARMA class are also entertained. We used many forecasting models and also combinations of these models. The use of cointegration vectors improves substantially the forecast performance of industrial GDP. Furthermore, in general, combining models out-performed individual models, even when the performance of the later was acceptable

Modelos Vetoriais de Correção de Erros Aplicados à Previsão de Crescimento da Produção Industrial

In this paper we implement and evaluate several forecast econometric vectorial autoregressivemodels for quarterly Industrial GDP. We have built co-integration vectorrestriction for several sets of variables (Industrial GDP, long interest rates, short interestrates, spread, inflation) in order to assess the improvement on forecast performance.A expectative variable of growth of industrial production among firms was alsoutilized and was proved to be valuable. The predictive power of different modelswas evaluated from diverse loss functions evaluated on out-of sample invariable sizerolling-window method. Additionally, we have considered also combining forecastmethods, following the subject literature which has been indicating this approach asone the most efficient (BATES e GRANGER, 1969).We have concluded, the use of co-integration vector may improve substantiallythe forecast performance. Specialy, the interest rate spread has been proved to be aimportant leading indicator of industrial activity as well as the expectative variable(FGV). Furthermore, the c combining forecast models over-performed generally,apart others very good results of individual models.