The evolutionary dynamics that retain long neutral genomic sequences in face of indel deletion bias: a model and its application to human introns

Insertions and deletions (indels) of short DNA segments are common evolutionary events. Numerous studies showed that deletions occur more often than insertions in both prokaryotes and eukaryotes. It raises the question why neutral sequences are not eradicated from the genome. We suggest that this is due to a phenomenon we term border-induced selection. Accordingly, a neutral sequence is bordered between conserved regions. Deletions occurring near the borders occasionally protrude to the conserved region and are thereby subject to strong purifying selection. Thus, for short neutral sequences, an insertion bias is expected. Here, we develop a set of increasingly complex models of indel dynamics that incorporate border-induced selection. Furthermore, we show that short conserved sequences within the neutrally evolving sequence help explain: (i) the presence of very long sequences; (ii) the high variance of sequence lengths; and (iii) the possible emergence of multimodality in sequence length distributions. Finally, we fitted our models to the human intron length distribution, as introns are thought to be mostly neutral and bordered by conserved exons. We show that when accounting for the occurrence of short conserved sequences within introns, we reproduce the main features, including the presence of long introns and the multimodality of intron distribution

COVID‐19 pandemic‐related lockdown: response time is more important than its strictness

Abstract The rapid spread of SARS‐CoV‐2 and its threat to health systems worldwide have led governments to take acute actions to enforce social distancing. Previous studies used complex epidemiological models to quantify the effect of lockdown policies on infection rates. However, these rely on prior assumptions or on official regulations. Here, we use country‐specific reports of daily mobility from people cellular usage to model social distancing. Our data‐driven model enabled the extraction of lockdown characteristics which were crossed with observed mortality rates to show that: (i) the time at which social distancing was initiated is highly correlated with the number of deaths, r2 = 0.64, while the lockdown strictness or its duration is not as informative; (ii) a delay of 7.49 days in initiating social distancing would double the number of deaths; and (iii) the immediate response has a prolonged effect on COVID‐19 death toll

Supplementary Figure from The evolutionary dynamics that retain long neutral genomic sequences in face of indel deletion bias: a model and its application to human introns

Insertions and deletions (indels) of short DNA segments are common evolutionary events. Numerous studies showed that deletions occur more often than insertions in both prokaryotes and eukaryotes. It raises the question why neutral sequences are not eradicated from the genome. We suggest that this is due to a phenomenon we term border-induced selection. Accordingly, a neutral sequence is bordered between conserved regions. Deletions occurring near the borders occasionally protrude to the conserved region and are thereby subject to strong purifying selection. Thus, for short neutral sequences, an insertion bias is expected. Here, we develop a set of increasingly complex models of indel dynamics that incorporate border-induced selection. Furthermore, we show that short conserved sequences within the neutrally evolving sequence help explain: (i) the presence of very long sequences; (ii) the high variance of sequence lengths; and (iii) the possible emergence of multimodality in sequence length distributions. Finally, we fitted our models to the human intron length distribution, as introns are thought to be mostly neutral and bordered by conserved exons. We show that when accounting for the occurrence of short conserved sequences within introns, we reproduce the main features, including the presence of long introns and the multi-modality of intron distribution

An Approximate Bayesian Computation Approach for Modeling Genome Rearrangements

The inference of genome rearrangement events has been extensively studied, as they play a major role in molecular evolution. However, probabilistic evolutionary models that explicitly imitate the evolutionary dynamics of such events, as well as methods to infer model parameters, are yet to be fully utilized. Here, we developed a probabilistic approach to infer genome rearrangement rate parameters using an Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) framework. We developed two genome rearrangement models, a basic model, which accounts for genomic changes in gene order, and a more sophisticated one which also accounts for changes in chromosome number. We characterized the ABC inference accuracy using simulations and applied our methodology to both prokaryotic and eukaryotic empirical datasets. Knowledge of genome-rearrangement rates can help elucidate their role in evolution as well as help simulate genomes with evolutionary dynamics that reflect empirical genomes