Considerations for using ETEC and Shigella disease burden estimates to guide vaccine development strategy.

Enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC) and Shigella are enteropathogens causing significant global morbidity and mortality, particularly in low-income countries. No licensed vaccine exists for either pathogen, but candidates are in development, with the most advanced candidates potentially approaching pivotal efficacy testing within the next few years. A positive policy recommendation for introduction of any vaccine, following licensure, depends on evidence of vaccine cost-effectiveness and impact on morbidity and mortality. The mortality estimates for these two pathogens have fluctuated over recent years, which has led to uncertainty in the assessment of their relative public health importance for use in low and middle-income countries. This paper summarizes the various ETEC and Shigella disease burden estimates, based on a review of current literature and informal consultations with leading stakeholders in enteric disease modelling. We discuss the factors that underpin the variability, including differences in the modelling methodology; diagnostic tools used to ascertain diarrheal etiology; epidemiological setting; the data that are available to incorporate; and absolute changes in the total number of diarrheal deaths over time. We consider the further work that will strengthen the evidence needed to support future decision making with respect to recommendations on the relative utility of these vaccines

The impact of alternative delivery strategies for novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

BackgroundTuberculosis is a leading infectious cause of death worldwide. Novel vaccines will be required to reach global targets and reverse setbacks resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. We estimated the impact of novel tuberculosis vaccines in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in several delivery scenarios.MethodsWe calibrated a tuberculosis model to 105 LMICs (accounting for 93% of global incidence). Vaccine scenarios were implemented as the base-case (routine vaccination of those aged 9 years and one-off vaccination for those aged 10 years and older, with country-specific introduction between 2028 and 2047, and 5-year scale-up to target coverage); accelerated scale-up similar to the base-case, but with all countries introducing vaccines in 2025, with instant scale-up; and routine-only (similar to the base-case, but including routine vaccination only). Vaccines were assumed to protect against disease for 10 years, with 50% efficacy.FindingsThe base-case scenario would prevent 44·0 million (95% uncertainty range 37·2–51·6) tuberculosis cases and 5·0 million (4·6–5·4) tuberculosis deaths before 2050, compared with equivalent estimates of cases and deaths that would be predicted to occur before 2050 with no new vaccine introduction (the baseline scenario). The accelerated scale-up scenario would prevent 65·5 million (55·6–76·0) cases and 7·9 million (7·3–8·5) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline. The routine-only scenario would prevent 8·8 million (95% uncertainty range 7·6–10·1) cases and 1·1 million (0·9–1·2) deaths before 2050, relative to baseline.InterpretationOur results suggest novel tuberculosis vaccines could have substantial impact, which will vary depending on delivery strategy. Including a one-off vaccination campaign will be crucial for rapid impact. Accelerated introduction—at a pace similar to that seen for COVID-19 vaccines—would increase the number of lives saved before 2050 by around 60%. Investment is required to support vaccine development, manufacturing, prompt introduction, and scale-up

Global diarrhoea-associated mortality estimates and models in children: Recommendations for dataset and study selection

BACKGROUND: Multiple factors contribute to variation in disease burden, including the type and quality of data, and inherent properties of the models used. Understanding how these factors affect mortality estimates is crucial, especially in the context of public health decision making. We examine how the quality of the studies selected to provide mortality data, influence estimates of burden and provide recommendations about the inclusion of studies and datasets to calculate mortality estimates. METHODS: To determine how mortality estimates are affected by the data used to generate model outputs, we compared the studies used by The Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) and Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE) modelling groups to generate enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and Shigella-associated mortality estimates for 2016. Guided by an expert WHO Working Group, we applied a modified Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) to evaluate the quality of studies used by both modelling groups. RESULTS: IHME and MCEE used different sets of ETEC and Shigella studies in their models and the majority of studies were high quality. The distribution of the NOS scores was similar between the two modelling groups. We observed an overrepresentation of studies from some countries in SEAR, AFR and WPR compared to other WHO regions. CONCLUSION: We identified key differences in study inclusion and exclusion criteria used by IHME and MCEE and discuss their impact on datasets used to generate diarrhoea-associated mortality estimates. Based on these observations, we provide a set of recommendations for future estimates of mortality associated with enteric diseases

Gonococcal vaccines: Public health value and preferred product characteristics; report of a WHO global stakeholder consultation, January 2019.

Renewed interest in developing vaccines against Neisseria gonorrhoeae has been sparked by the increasing threat of gonococcal antimicrobial resistance (AMR) and growing optimism that gonococcal vaccines are biologically feasible. Evidence suggests serogroup B Neisseria meningitidis vaccines might provide some cross-protection against N. gonorrhoeae, and new gonococcal vaccine candidates based on several approaches are currently in preclinical development. To further stimulate investment and accelerate development of gonococcal vaccines, greater understanding is needed regarding the overall value that gonococcal vaccines might have in addressing public health and societal goals in low-, middle-, and high-income country contexts and how future gonococcal vaccines might be accepted and used, if available. In January 2019, the World Health Organization (WHO) convened a multidisciplinary international group of experts to lay the groundwork for understanding the potential health, economic, and societal value of gonococcal vaccines and their likely acceptance and use, and for developing gonococcal vaccine preferred product characteristics (PPCs). WHO PPCs describe preferences for vaccine attributes that would help optimize vaccine value and use in meeting the global public health need. This paper describes the main discussion points and conclusions from the January 2019 meeting of experts. Participants emphasized the need for vaccines to control N. gonorrhoeae infections with the ultimate goals of preventing adverse sexual and reproductive health outcomes (e.g., infertility) and reducing the impact of gonococcal AMR. Meeting participants also discussed important PPC considerations (e.g., vaccine indications, target populations, and potential immunization strategies) and highlighted crucial research and data needs for guiding the value assessment and PPCs for gonococcal vaccines and advancing gonococcal vaccine development

World Health Organization Expert Working Group: Recommendations for assessing morbidity associated with enteric pathogens

BACKGROUND: Diarrhoeal infections are one of the leading causes of child's mortality and morbidity. Vaccines against Shigella, enterotoxigenic E. coli (ETEC), norovirus and invasive non-typhoidal Salmonella are in clinical development, however, their full value in terms of short and long-term health and socio-economic burden needs to be evaluated and communicated, to rationalise investment in vaccine development, and deployment. While estimates of mortality of enteric infections exist, the long-term morbidity estimates are scarce and have not been systematically collected. METHODS: The World Health Organization (WHO) has convened a Burden of Enteric Diseases Morbidity Working Group (BoED MWG) who identified key workstreams needed to characterise the morbidity burden of enteric infections. The group also identified four criteria for the prioritisation of pathogens of which impact on long-term morbidity needs to be assessed. RESULTS: The BoED MWG suggested to identify and analyse the individual level data from historical datasets to estimate the impact of enteric infections and confounders on long-term morbidity, including growth faltering and cognitive impairment in children (workstream 1); to conduct a systematic review of evidence on the association of aetiology specific diarrhoea with short- and long- term impact on growth, including stunting, and possibly cognitive impairment in children, while accounting for potential confounders (workstream 2); and to conduct a systematic review of evidence on the association of aetiology specific diarrhoea with short- and long- term impact on health outcomes in adults. The experts prioritised four pathogens for this work: Campylobacter jejuni, ETEC (LT or ST), norovirus (G1 or G2), and Shigella (dysenteriae, flexneri, sonnei). CONCLUSIONS: The proposed work will contribute to improving the understanding of the impact of enteric pathogens on long-term morbidity. The timing of this work is critical as all four pathogens have vaccine candidates in the clinical pipeline and decisions about investments in development, manufacturing or vaccine procurement and use are expected to be made soon

Synthesis and Characterization of 111In?DTPA?N-TIMP-2: A Radiopharmaceutical for Imaging Matrix Metalloproteinase Expression

The matrix metalloproteinases (MMPs) are enzymes involved in the turnover of the extracellular matrix. Their overexpression in tumors is implicated in the metastatic process and may provide a target for diagnostic tumor imaging by using a radiolabeled inhibitor. MMPs are inhibited by endogenous tissue inhibitors of metalloproteinases (TIMPs). Thus, TIMPs are potential targeting molecules which could be used as vehicles for selective radionuclide delivery by virtue of their binding to MMPs. The aim of this work was to produce a radiopharmaceutical with which to evaluate this potential. The 127 amino acid N-terminal domain of recombinant human TIMP-2 (N-TIMP-2) was conjugated with the bifunctional chelator diethylenetriamine pentaacetic acid (DTPA). Singly modified DTPA?N-TIMP-2 conjugate (identified by electrospray ionization mass spectrometry) was isolated by anion-exchange chromatography. The primary site of DTPA modification on N-TIMP-2 was mapped to lysine-116, which is distant from the site of MMP interaction. The conjugate was radiolabeled with indium-111 to give 111In?DTPA?N-TIMP-2 with a specific activity of at least 4 MBq/?g and a radiochemical yield and purity of >95%, by incubation with 111InCl3, without need for postlabeling purification. The product was sterile, pyrogen-free, and stable in serum over 48 h and retained full inhibitory activity in a fluorimetric binding assay. With these attributes, 111In?DTPA?N-TIMP-2 is a suitable radiopharmaceutical for in vivo biological and clinical investigation of the potential benefits of imaging MMP expression

In Vivo Evaluation of 111In-DTPA-N-TIMP-2 in Kaposi Sarcoma Associated with HIV Infection

Matrix metalloproteinases are the major agents responsible for the degradation of extracellular matrix and are produced at high levels by transformed and tumour cells, where they participate in the metastatic process by allowing local invasion. They are also more active at sites of new normal growth and angiogenesis. In the early stages of Kaposi sarcoma (KS), in vitro studies have demonstrated that vascular invasion can be inhibited by inhibitors of matrix metalloproteinases. Imaging of visceral and cutaneous KS presents a problem and therefore the potential use of a labelled inhibitor of metalloproteinases, N-TIMP-2, with indium-111 was thought to present a possible imaging tool. The biokinetics, dosimetry and potential for imaging with 111In-DTPA-N-TIMP-2 were assessed in five patients with HIV infection and KS. Between 103.1 and 108.0 MBq of this agent was injected into each patient, and the dynamic uptake over the kidneys was assessed, whole body scans were performed and blood samples were obtained. The clearance from the blood was rapid, with a first component half-time of 16.6+/-3.4 min and a second component half-time of 9.68+/-2.68 h. Two out of five patients experienced minor shivering but one of these patients was generally unwell before the study. The last three patients had no such problems. The tracer distributed predominantly to the kidneys and did not localise in other tissues. No KS lesions were clearly identified. 111In-DTPA-N-TIMP-2 can be successfully prepared and administered to patients safely, with a biodistribution and dosimetry which would allow its use as an imaging tracer. It is unlikely to be of use for imaging KS, but may have a role in other tumours that produce matrix metalloproteinases

WHO consultation on ETEC and Shigella burden of disease, Geneva, 6-7th April 2017: Meeting report.

According to the 2015 Global Burden of Disease Study, diarrhea ranked ninth among causes of death for all ages, and fourth among children under 5 years old, accounting for an estimated 499,000 deaths in this young age group. It was also the second most common cause of years lived with disability (2.39 billion YLDs). The goal of the WHO/UNICEF Integrated Global Action Plan for the Prevention and Control of Pneumonia and Diarrhea (GAPPD) is to reduce deaths from diarrhea in children under 5 years of age to less than 1 per 1000 live births, by 2025. Development of new and improved vaccines against diarrheal infections is a fundamental element of the strategy towards achieving this goal. Enterotoxigenic Escherichia coli (ETEC) and Shigella are enteropathogens that cause significant global mortality and morbidity, particularly in low- and middle-income countries. In 2016, WHO's Product Development for Vaccines Advisory Committee (PDVAC) recommended that the WHO's Initiative for Vaccine Research (IVR) engage in this area, based on PDVAC's criteria of prioritizing the development of vaccines against pathogens that will address a major unmet public health need, and for which clinical candidates with a good probability of technical success are in the pipeline. As a first step, WHO's IVR convened global subject matter experts to discuss the current global ETEC and Shigella disease burden estimates, including the current understanding of the long-term indirect effects of ETEC and Shigella infection, and how these data may affect future decision making on vaccine development for both pathogens. The available global burden estimates for ETEC and Shigella differ with respect to the relative importance of these two pathogens. The mortality estimates vary between iterations published by the same group, as well as between estimates of different groups, although the uncertainty intervals are broad and overlapping. These variances are attributable to differences in the data available and incorporated in the models; the methods used to detect the pathogens; the modelling methodologies; and, to actual changes in the total number of diarrheal deaths over time. The changes in the most recently reported mortality estimates for these pathogens, as compared to previous iterations, has led to debate as to whether investment in development of stand-alone vaccines, rather than combined vaccines, is warranted from cost-effectiveness and vaccine impact perspectives. Further work will be needed to understand better the variances and uncertainties in the reported mortality estimates to support investment decision making, and ultimately policy recommendations for vaccine use. In addition, a comprehensive assessment of the value proposition for vaccines against these pathogens is needed and will be strengthened if the long-term health consequences associated with diarrhea and dysentery due to these pathogens are better defined