Pandemic leadership failures and public health

In a plainly worded target article whose sagacity and import can hardly be overstated, Wiebers & Feigin place the recent COVID-19 crisis in historic perspective. They warn us that unless we make sweeping changes the next pandemics are all but preordained. They offer a blueprint for dramatically lowering the likelihood of future pandemics

The "African humid period" and the record of marine upwelling from excess ^(230)Th in Ocean Drilling Program Hole 658C

Using a high-resolution ^(230)Th normalized record of sediment flux, we document the deglacial and Holocene history of North African aridity and coastal upwelling at Ocean Drilling Program Hole 658C. At both the end of the Younger Dryas and after the 8.2 ka event, there are significant drops in terrigenous accumulation at our site, indicating an increase in the monsoon moisture flux over Africa at this time. At 5.5 ka, there is an abrupt end to the “African humid period” and a return to stronger upwelling conditions. For carbonate and opal fluxes the ^(230)Th normalization completely changes the shape of each record based on percentage variations alone. This site is a clear example of how variations in one sediment component can obscure changes in the others, and it demonstrates the need for radionuclide measurements more generally in paleoceanography. By taking our new records and a large amount of previous data from this site we conclude that increases in African moisture are tightly coupled to decreases in coastal upwelling intensity

Adaptations to Climate in Candidate Genes for Common Metabolic Disorders

Evolutionary pressures due to variation in climate play an important role in shaping phenotypic variation among and within species and have been shown to influence variation in phenotypes such as body shape and size among humans. Genes involved in energy metabolism are likely to be central to heat and cold tolerance. To test the hypothesis that climate shaped variation in metabolism genes in humans, we used a bioinformatics approach based on network theory to select 82 candidate genes for common metabolic disorders. We genotyped 873 tag SNPs in these genes in 54 worldwide populations (including the 52 in the Human Genome Diversity Project panel) and found correlations with climate variables using rank correlation analysis and a newly developed method termed Bayesian geographic analysis. In addition, we genotyped 210 carefully matched control SNPs to provide an empirical null distribution for spatial patterns of allele frequency due to population history alone. For nearly all climate variables, we found an excess of genic SNPs in the tail of the distributions of the test statistics compared to the control SNPs, implying that metabolic genes as a group show signals of spatially varying selection. Among our strongest signals were several SNPs (e.g., LEPR R109K, FABP2 A54T) that had previously been associated with phenotypes directly related to cold tolerance. Since variation in climate may be correlated with other aspects of environmental variation, it is possible that some of the signals that we detected reflect selective pressures other than climate. Nevertheless, our results are consistent with the idea that climate has been an important selective pressure acting on candidate genes for common metabolic disorders.</p

Exploring scenarios for the food system–zoonotic risk interface

The unprecedented economic and health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have shown the global necessity of mitigating the underlying drivers of zoonotic spillover events, which occur at the human–wildlife and domesticated animal interface. Spillover events are associated to varying degrees with high habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss through land use change, high livestock densities, agricultural inputs, and wildlife hunting—all facets of food systems. As such, the structure and characteristics of food systems can be considered key determinants of modern pandemic risks. This means that emerging infectious diseases should be more explicitly addressed in the discourse of food systems to mitigate the likelihood and impacts of spillover events. Here, we adopt a scenario framework to highlight the many connections among food systems, zoonotic diseases, and sustainability. We identify two overarching dimensions: the extent of land use for food production and the agricultural practices employed that shape four archetypal food systems, each with a distinct risk profile with respect to zoonotic spillovers and differing dimensions of sustainability. Prophylactic measures to curb the emergence of zoonotic diseases are therefore closely linked to diets and food policies. Future research directions should explore more closely how they impact the risk of spillover events

Adaptations to Climate in Candidate Genes for Common Metabolic Disorders

Evolutionary pressures due to variation in climate play an important role in shaping phenotypic variation among and within species and have been shown to influence variation in phenotypes such as body shape and size among humans. Genes involved in energy metabolism are likely to be central to heat and cold tolerance. To test the hypothesis that climate shaped variation in metabolism genes in humans, we used a bioinformatics approach based on network theory to select 82 candidate genes for common metabolic disorders. We genotyped 873 tag SNPs in these genes in 54 worldwide populations (including the 52 in the Human Genome Diversity Project panel) and found correlations with climate variables using rank correlation analysis and a newly developed method termed Bayesian geographic analysis. In addition, we genotyped 210 carefully matched control SNPs to provide an empirical null distribution for spatial patterns of allele frequency due to population history alone. For nearly all climate variables, we found an excess of genic SNPs in the tail of the distributions of the test statistics compared to the control SNPs, implying that metabolic genes as a group show signals of spatially varying selection. Among our strongest signals were several SNPs (e.g., LEPR R109K, FABP2 A54T) that had previously been associated with phenotypes directly related to cold tolerance. Since variation in climate may be correlated with other aspects of environmental variation, it is possible that some of the signals that we detected reflect selective pressures other than climate. Nevertheless, our results are consistent with the idea that climate has been an important selective pressure acting on candidate genes for common metabolic disorders

Environmental performance of blue foods

Fish and other aquatic foods (blue foods) present an opportunity for more sustainable diets1,2. Yet comprehensive comparison has been limited due to sparse inclusion of blue foods in environmental impact studies3,4 relative to the vast diversity of production5. Here we provide standardized estimates of greenhouse gas, nitrogen, phosphorus, freshwater and land stressors for species groups covering nearly three quarters of global production. We find that across all blue foods, farmed bivalves and seaweeds generate the lowest stressors. Capture fisheries predominantly generate greenhouse gas emissions, with small pelagic fishes generating lower emissions than all fed aquaculture, but flatfish and crustaceans generating the highest. Among farmed finfish and crustaceans, silver and bighead carps have the lowest greenhouse gas, nitrogen and phosphorus emissions, but highest water use, while farmed salmon and trout use the least land and water. Finally, we model intervention scenarios and find improving feed conversion ratios reduces stressors across all fed groups, increasing fish yield reduces land and water use by up to half, and optimizing gears reduces capture fishery emissions by more than half for some groups. Collectively, our analysis identifies high-performing blue foods, highlights opportunities to improve environmental performance, advances data-poor environmental assessments, and informs sustainable diets

Pandemic leadership failures and public health

In a plainly worded target article whose sagacity and import can hardly be overstated, Wiebers & Feigin place the recent COVID-19 crisis in historic perspective. They warn us that unless we make sweeping changes the next pandemics are all but preordained. They offer a blueprint for dramatically lowering the likelihood of future pandemics

Small-scale integrated farming systems can abate continental-scale nutrient leakage.

Beef is the most resource intensive of all commonly used food items. Disproportionate synthetic fertilizer use during beef production propels a vigorous one-way factory-to-ocean nutrient flux, which alternative agriculture models strive to rectify by enhancing in-farm biogeochemical cycling. Livestock, especially cattle, are central to these models, which advocates describe as the context most likely to overcome beef's environmental liabilities. Yet the dietary potential of such models is currently poorly known. Here, I thus ask whether nitrogen-sparing agriculture (NSA) can offer a viable alternative to the current US food system. Focusing on the most common eutrophication-causing element, N, I devise a specific model of mixed-use NSA comprising numerous small farms producing human plant-based food and forage, the latter feeding a core intensive beef operation that forgoes synthetic fertilizer and relies only on locally produced manure and N fixers. Assuming the model is deployed throughout the high-quality, precipitation-rich US cropland (delimiting approximately 100 million ha, less than half of today's agricultural land use) and neglecting potential macroeconomic obstacles to wide deployment, I find that NSA could produce a diverse, high-quality nationwide diet distinctly better than today's mean US diet. The model also permits 70%-80% of today's beef consumption, raises today's protein delivery by 5%-40%, and averts approximately 60% of today's fertilizer use and approximately 10% of today's total greenhouse gas emissions. As defined here, NSA is thus potentially a viable, scalable environmentally superior alternative to the current US food system, but only when combined with the commitment to substantially enhance our reliance on plant food

Spatiotemporal Data Analysis

A severe thunderstorm morphs into a tornado that cuts a swath of destruction through Oklahoma. How do we study the storm's mutation into a deadly twister? Avian flu cases are reported in China. How do we characterize the spread of the flu, potentially preventing an epidemic? The way to answer important questions like these is to analyze the spatial and temporal characteristics--origin, rates, and frequencies--of these phenomena. This comprehensive text introduces advanced undergraduate students, graduate students, and researchers to the statistical and algebraic methods used to analyze spati

Geophysics and nutritional science: toward a novel, unified paradigm

This article discusses a few basic geophysical processes, which collectively indicate that several nutritionally adverse elements of current Western diets also yield environmentally harmful food consumption patterns. We address oceanic dead zones, which are at the confluence of oceanography, aquatic chemistry, and agronomy and which are a clear environmental problem, and agriculture's effects on the surface heat budget. These exemplify the unknown, complex, and sometimes unexpected large-scale environmental effects of agriculture. We delineate the significant alignment in purpose between nutritional and environmental sciences. We identify red meat, and to a lesser extent the broader animal-based portion of the diet, as having the greatest environmental effect, with clear nutritional parallels