Improving Usability of Social and Behavioral Sciences’ Evidence: A Call to Action for a National Infrastructure Project for Mining Our Knowledge

Over the last century, the social and behavioral sciences have accumulated a vast storehouse of knowledge with the potential to transform society and all its constituents. Unfortunately, this knowledge has accumulated in a form (e.g., journal papers) and scale that makes it extremely difficult to search, categorize, analyze, and integrate across studies. In this commentary based on a National Science Foundation-funded workshop, we describe the social and behavioral sciences’ knowledge-management problem. We discuss the knowledge-scale problem and how we lack a common language, a common format to represent knowledge, a means to analyze and summarize in an automated way, and approaches to visualize knowledge at a large scale. We then describe that we need a collaborative research program between information systems, information science, and computer science (IICS) researchers and social and behavioral science (SBS) researchers to develop information system artifacts to address the problem that many scientific disciplines share but that the social and behavioral sciences have uniquely not addressed

Model diagnostics and refinement for phylodynamic models

<div><p>Phylodynamic modelling, which studies the joint dynamics of epidemiological and evolutionary processes, has made significant progress in recent years due to increasingly available genomic data and advances in statistical modelling. These advances have greatly improved our understanding of transmission dynamics of many important pathogens. Nevertheless, there remains a lack of effective, targetted diagnostic tools for systematically detecting model mis-specification. Development of such tools is essential for model criticism, refinement, and calibration. The idea of utilising <i>latent residuals</i> for model assessment has already been exploited in general spatio-temporal epidemiological settings. Specifically, by proposing appropriately designed non-centered, re-parameterizations of a given epidemiological process, one can construct latent residuals with known sampling distributions which can be used to quantify evidence of model mis-specification. In this paper, we extend this idea to formulate a novel model-diagnostic framework for phylodynamic models. Using simulated examples, we show that our framework may effectively detect a particular form of mis-specification in a phylodynamic model, particularly in the event of superspreading. We also exemplify our approach by applying the framework to a dataset describing a local foot-and-mouth (FMD) outbreak in the UK, eliciting strong evidence against the assumption of no within-host-diversity in the outbreak. We further demonstrate that our framework can facilitate model calibration in real-life scenarios, by proposing a within-host-diversity model which appears to offer a better fit to data than one that assumes no within-host-diversity of FMD virus.</p></div

Development and Validation of a Predictive Model of Acute Glucose Response to Exercise in Individuals With Type 2 Diabetes

Background: Our purpose was to develop and test a predictive model of the acute glucose response to exercise in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Design and methods: Data from three previous exercise studies (56 subjects, 488 exercise sessions) were combined and used as a development dataset. A mixed-effects Least Absolute Shrinkage Selection Operator (LASSO) was used to select predictors among 12 potential predictors. Tests of the relative importance of each predictor were conducted using the Lindemann Merenda and Gold (LMG) algorithm. Model structure was tested using likelihood ratio tests. Model accuracy in the development dataset was assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation. Prospectively captured data (47 individuals, 436 sessions) was used as a test dataset. Model accuracy was calculated as the percentage of predictions within measurement error. Overall model utility was assessed as the number of subjects with ≤ 1 model error after the third exercise session. Model accuracy across individuals was assessed graphically. In a post-hoc analysis, a mixed-effects logistic regression tested the association of individuals\u27 attributes with model error. Results: Minutes since eating, a non-linear transformation of minutes since eating, post-prandial state, hemoglobin A1c, sulfonylurea status, age, and exercise session number were identified as novel predictors. Minutes since eating, its transformations, and hemoglobin A1c combined to account for 19.6% of the variance in glucose response. Sulfonylurea status, age, and exercise session each accounted for \u3c1.0% of the variance. In the development dataset, a model with random slopes for pre-exercise glucose improved fit over a model with random intercepts only (likelihood ratio 34.5, p \u3c 0.001). Cross-validated model accuracy was 83.3%. In the test dataset, overall accuracy was 80.2%. The model was more accurate in pre-prandial than postprandial exercise (83.6% vs. 74.5% accuracy respectively). 31/47 subjects had ≤1 model error after the third exercise session. Model error varied across individuals and was weakly associated with within-subject variability in pre-exercise glucose (Odds ratio 1.49, 95% Confidence interval 1.23-1.75). Conclusions: The preliminary development and test of a predictive model of acute glucose response to exercise is presented. Further work to improve this model is discussed

A Randomized, Controlled, Supervised, Excerise Trial in Young Overweight Men and Women: The Midwest Exercise Trial II (MET2)

We evaluated weight loss response to 16 months of supervised exercise (45 minutes/d, 5 d/wk, 75% heart-rate-reserve) in sedentary, overweight/obese participants without energy restriction in the Midwest Exercise Trial (MET1). Results indicated men lost weight, women did not. The gender differences were associated with differences in the energy expenditure of exercise (EEEx) (men = 667 ± 116; women = 439 ± 88 kcal/session) when exercise was prescribed by frequency, intensity and duration. MET2 is a randomized control trial designed and powered to examine differences in weight loss and gender in response to EEEx for men and women of 400 or 600 kcal/session, 5d/wk, for 10 months without energy restriction. One hundred forty one participants will be randomized to 1 of 2 exercise groups or a non-exercise control. EEEx will be verified by indirect calorimetry monthly during the intervention. This study will evaluate: (1) the weight change response to two levels of EEEx versus non-exercise control; (2) gender differences in weight response to two levels of EEEx; (3) potential compensatory changes in energy intake and/or daily physical activity that may explain the observed weight changes. Results from this study may impact how exercise is prescribed for weight loss and prevention of weight regain and may clarify if men and women differ in response to exercise

Weight management by phone conference call: A comparision with a traditional face-to-face clinic. Rationale and design for a randomized equivalence trial

State-of-the-art treatment for weight management consists of a behavioral intervention to facilitate decreased energy intake and increased physical activity. These interventions are typically delivered face-to-face (FTF) by a health educator to a small group of participants. There are numerous barriers to participation in FTF clinics including availability, scheduling, the expense and time required to travel to the clinic site, and possible need for dependent care. Weight management clinics delivered by conference call have the potential to diminish or eliminate these barriers. The conference call approach may also reduce burden on providers, who could conduct clinic groups from almost any location without the expenses associated with maintaining FTF clinic space. A randomized trial will be conducted in 395 overweight/obese adults (BMI 25–39.9 kg/m2) to determine if weight loss (6 months) and weight maintenance (12 months) are equivalent between weight management interventions utilizing behavioral strategies and pre-packaged meals delivered by either a conference call or the traditional FTF approach. The primary outcome, body weight, will be assessed at baseline, 6, 12 and 18 months. Secondary outcomes including waist circumference, energy and macronutrient intake, and physical activity and will be assessed on the same schedule. In addition, a cost analysis and extensive process evaluation will be completed

Aerobic exercise alone results in clinically significant weight loss for men and women: Midwest Exercise Trial-2

This is the peer reviewed version of the following article: Donnelly, J. E., Honas, J. J., Smith, B. K., Mayo, M. S., Gibson, C. A., Sullivan, D. K., Lee, J., Herrmann, S. D., Lambourne, K. and Washburn, R. A. (2013), Aerobic exercise alone results in clinically significant weight loss for men and women: Midwest exercise trial 2. Obesity, 21: E219–E228. doi:10.1002/oby.20145, which has been published in final form at http://doi.org/10.1002/oby.20145. This article may be used for non-commercial purposes in accordance with Wiley Terms and Conditions for Self-Archiving.Exercise is recommended by public health agencies for weight management; however, the role of exercise is generally considered secondary to energy restriction. Few studies exist that have verified completion of exercise, measured the energy expenditure of exercise, and prescribed exercise with equivalent energy expenditure across individuals and genders. OBJECTIVE The objective of this study was to evaluate aerobic exercise, without energy restriction, on weight loss in sedentary overweight and obese men and women. DESIGN AND METHODS This investigation was a randomized, controlled, efficacy trial in 141 overweight and obese participants (body mass index, 31.0 ± 4.6 kg/m2; age 22.6 ± 3.9 years). Participants were randomized (2:2:1 ratio) to exercise at either 400 kcal/session or 600 kcal/session or to a non-exercise control. Exercise was supervised, 5 days/week, for 10 months. All participants were instructed to maintain usual ad libitum diets. Due to the efficacy design, completion of ≥ 90% of exercise sessions was an a priori definition of per protocol, and these participants were included in the analysis. RESULTS Weight loss from baseline to 10 months for the 400 and 600 kcal/session groups was 3.9 ± 4.9kg (4.3%) and 5.2 ± 5.6kg (5.7%), respectively compared to weight gain for controls of 0.5 ± 3.5kg (0.5%) (p<0.05). Differences for weight loss from baseline to 10 months between the exercise groups and differences between men and women within groups were not statistically significant. CONCLUSIONS Supervised exercise, with equivalent energy expenditure, results in clinically significant weight loss with no significant difference between men and women

Weight management for individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities: Rationale and design for an 18 month randomized trial

Weight management for individuals with intellectual and developmental disabilities (IDD) has received limited attention. Studies on weight management in this population have been conducted over short time frames, in small samples with inadequate statistical power, infrequently used a randomized design, and have not evaluated the use of emerging effective dietary strategies such as pre-packaged meals (PMs). Low energy/fat PMs may be useful in individuals with IDD as they simplify meal planning, limit undesirable food choices, teach appropriate portion sizes, are convenient and easy to prepare, and when combined with fruits and vegetables provide a high volume, low energy dense meal. A randomized effectiveness trial will be conducted in 150 overweight/obese adults with mild to moderate IDD, and their study partners to compare weight loss (6 months) and weight maintenance (12 months) between 2 weight management approaches: 1. A Stop Light Diet enhanced with reduced energy/fat PMs (eSLD); and 2. A recommended care reduced energy/fat meal plan diet (RC). The primary aim is to compare weight loss (0–6 months) and weight maintenance (7–18 months) between the eSLD and RC diets. Secondarily, changes in chronic disease risk factors between the eSLD and RC diets including blood pressure, glucose, insulin, LDL-cholesterol, and HDL-cholesterol will be compared during both weight loss and weight maintenance. Finally, potential mediators of weight loss including energy intake, physical activity, data recording, adherence to the diet, study partner self-efficacy and daily stress related to dietary change will be explored

Physical activity across the curriculum: year one process evaluation results

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Physical Activity Across the Curriculum (PAAC) is a 3-year elementary school-based intervention to determine if increased amounts of moderate intensity physical activity performed in the classroom will diminish gains in body mass index (BMI). It is a cluster-randomized, controlled trial, involving 4905 children (2505 intervention, 2400 control).</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We collected both qualitative and quantitative process evaluation data from 24 schools (14 intervention and 10 control), which included tracking teacher training issues, challenges and barriers to effective implementation of PAAC lessons, initial and continual use of program specified activities, and potential competing factors, which might contaminate or lessen program effects.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall teacher attendance at training sessions showed exceptional reach. Teachers incorporated active lessons on most days, resulting in significantly greater student physical activity levels compared to controls (p < 0.0001). Enjoyment ratings for classroom-based lessons were also higher for intervention students. Competing factors, which might influence program results, were not carried out at intervention or control schools or were judged to be minimal.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>In the first year of the PAAC intervention, process evaluation results were instrumental in identifying successes and challenges faced by teachers when trying to modify existing academic lessons to incorporate physical activity.</p

Physical Activity Across the Curriculum (PAAC): a randomized controlled trial to promote physical activity and diminish overweight and obesity in elementary school children

Objective Physical Activity Across the Curriculum (PAAC) was a three-year cluster randomized controlled trial to promote physical activity and diminish increases in overweight and obesity in elementary school children. Methods Twenty-four elementary schools were cluster randomized to the PAAC intervention or served as control. All children in grades two and three were followed to grades four and five. PAAC promoted 90 minutes/wk of moderate to vigorous intensity physically active academic lessons delivered by classroom teachers. BMI was the primary outcome, daily PA and academic achievement were secondary outcomes. Results The three-year change in BMI for PAAC was 2.0 ± 1.9 and control 1.9 ± 1.9, respectively (NS). However, change in BMI from baseline to three years was significantly influenced by exposure to PAAC. Schools with ≥75 minutes of PAAC/wk showed significantly less increase in BMI at three years compared to schools that had <75 minutes of PAAC (1.8 ± 1.8 vs. 2.4 ± 2.0, p=0.02). PAAC schools had significantly greater changes in daily PA and academic achievement scores. Conclusions The PAAC approach may promote daily PA and academic achievement in elementary school children. Additionally, 75 minutes of PAAC activities may attenuate increases in BMI

Epidemiology of Subpatent Plasmodium Falciparum Infection: Implications for Detection of Hotspots with Imperfect Diagnostics.

At the local level, malaria transmission clusters in hotspots, which may be a group of households that experience higher than average exposure to infectious mosquitoes. Active case detection often relying on rapid diagnostic tests for mass screen and treat campaigns has been proposed as a method to detect and treat individuals in hotspots. Data from a cross-sectional survey conducted in north-western Tanzania were used to examine the spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum and the relationship between household exposure and parasite density. Dried blood spots were collected from consenting individuals from four villages during a survey conducted in 2010. These were analysed by PCR for the presence of P. falciparum, with the parasite density of positive samples being estimated by quantitative PCR. Household exposure was estimated using the distance-weighted PCR prevalence of infection. Parasite density simulations were used to estimate the proportion of infections that would be treated using a screen and treat approach with rapid diagnostic tests (RDT) compared to targeted mass drug administration (tMDA) and Mass Drug Administration (MDA). Polymerase chain reaction PCR analysis revealed that of the 3,057 blood samples analysed, 1,078 were positive. Mean distance-weighted PCR prevalence per household was 34.5%. Parasite density was negatively associated with transmission intensity with the odds of an infection being subpatent increasing with household exposure (OR 1.09 per 1% increase in exposure). Parasite density was also related to age, being highest in children five to ten years old and lowest in those > 40 years. Simulations of different tMDA strategies showed that treating all individuals in households where RDT prevalence was above 20% increased the number of infections that would have been treated from 43 to 55%. However, even with this strategy, 45% of infections remained untreated. The negative relationship between household exposure and parasite density suggests that DNA-based detection of parasites is needed to provide adequate sensitivity in hotspots. Targeting MDA only to households with RDT-positive individuals may allow a larger fraction of infections to be treated. These results suggest that community-wide MDA, instead of screen and treat strategies, may be needed to successfully treat the asymptomatic, subpatent parasite reservoir and reduce transmission in similar settings