Increasing Heatwave Hazards in the Southeastern European Union Capitals

Heatwaves (HWs) are one of the “natural” hazards with the greatest impact worldwide in terms of mortality and economic losses, and their effects may be exacerbated in large urban areas. For these reasons, more detailed analyses of urban HW trends represent a priority that cannot be neglected. In this study, HW trends were investigated during the warmest period of the year (May–September) by using a slightly improved version of the EuroHEAT HW definition applied on long meteorological time-series (36-year period, 1980–2015) collected by weather stations located in the capitals of the 28 European Union member countries. Comparisons between two 18-year sub-periods (1980–1997 vs. 1998–2015) were carried out and a city-specific HW hazard index (HWHI), accounting for the main HW characteristics, was proposed. Most of the capitals revealed significant positive trends of the majority of HW hazard characteristics and substantial HWHI increases were observed during the sub-period 1998–2015, especially in the central-eastern and southeastern cities. Conversely, minor HWHI increases were observed in most of the northern capitals and opposite situations were even observed in several northern and especially southwestern cities. The results of this study represent a support for planning urban HW-related mitigation and adaptation strategies with the priority given to the southeastern cities

Weather-Related Flood and Landslide Damage: A Risk Index for Italian Regions

The frequency of natural hazards has been increasing in the last decades in Europe and specifically in Mediterranean regions due to climate change. For example heavy precipitation events can lead to disasters through the interaction with exposed and vulnerable people and natural systems. It is therefore necessary a prevention planning to preserve human health and to reduce economic losses. Prevention should mainly be carried out with more adequate land management, also supported by the development of an appropriate risk prediction tool based on weather forecasts. The main aim of this study is to investigate the relationship between weather types (WTs) and the frequency of floods and landslides that have caused damage to properties, personal injuries, or deaths in the Italian regions over recent decades. In particular, a specific risk index (WT-FLARI) for each WT was developed at national and regional scale. This study has identified a specific risk index associated with each weather type, calibrated for each Italian region and applicable to both annual and seasonal levels. The risk index represents the seasonal and annual vulnerability of each Italian region and indicates that additional preventive actions are necessary for some regions. The results of this study represent a good starting point towards the development of a tool to support policy-makers, local authorities and health agencies in planning actions, mainly in the medium to long term, aimed at the weather damage reduction that represents an important issue of the World Meteorological Organization mission

Linking crop yields in Tuscany, Italy, to large-scale atmospheric variability, circulation regimes and weather types

AbstractThe paper presents results from a study examining the relationship between large-scale modes of climate variability with the fluctuations in the yield of barley, durum wheat, olives and sunflower crops in Tuscany, Italy. In particular, the blocking circulation over the growing season, with associated hot and dry conditions, decreased yield for olive crops, barley and durum wheat. The teleconnections analysed in this study are the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation (SNAO); the West African Monsoon (WAM) and the Intertropical Front (ITF); and although NAO, SNAO, ITF and WAM are not strictly related to each other, the values of these indices are strongly related to the atmospheric circulation regimes and related weather types. Thus, they have an impact on precipitation and temperature patterns in Italy and on yields of important crops in Tuscany. Results show that the large-scale temperate and tropical variability directly influences the crop yield through three main circulation regimes. These patterns illustrate the importance of the large-scale modes, which, together with the associated weather types, have an impact directly on Tuscan crop yields; both barley and olive yields decline significantly when the ITF is further north with warmer and drier conditions in Italy

Effect of Metformin on Glucagon-Like Peptide 1 (GLP-1) and Leptin Levels in Obese Nondiabetic Subjects

OBJECTIVE—To evaluate the effects of metformin on glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and leptin levels. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—A total of 10 obese nondiabetic male patients were studied before and after a 14-day treatment with 2,550 mg/day metformin and were compared with 10 untreated obese control subjects. On days 0 and 15, leptin and GLP-1(7–36)amide/(7–37) levels were assessed before and after an oral glucose load during a euglycemic hyperinsulinemic clamp to avoid the interference of variations of insulinemia and glycemia on GLP-1 and leptin secretion. The effects of metformin on GLP-1(7–36)amide degradation in human plasma and in a buffer solution containing dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPP-IV) were also studied. RESULTS—Leptin levels were not affected by the oral glucose load, and they were not modified after metformin treatment. Metformin induced a significant (P < 0.05) increase of GLP-1(7–36)amide/(7–37) at 30 and 60 min after the oral glucose load (63.8 ± 29.0 vs. 50.3 ± 15.6 pmol/l and 75.8 ± 35.4 vs. 46.9 ± 20.0 pmol/l, respectively), without affecting baseline GLP-1 levels. No variations of GLP-1 levels were observed in the control group. In pooled human plasma, metformin (0.1–0.5 μg/ml) significantly inhibited degradation of GLP-1(7–36)amide after a 30-min incubation at 37°C; similar results were obtained in a buffer solution containing DPP-IV. CONCLUSIONS—Metformin significantly increases GLP-1 levels after an oral glucose load in obese nondiabetic subjects; this effect could be due to an inhibition of GLP-1 degradation

Multicentre performance evaluation of the E170 Module for MODULAR ANALYTICS

The E170 module was evaluated at 13 sites in an international multicentre study. The objective of the study was to assess the analytical performance of 49 analytes, and to collect feedback on the system's reliability and practicability. The typical, within-run coefficients of variation (CVs) for most of the quantitative assays ranged between 1 and 2% while a range of 2-4% was achieved with the infectious disease methods. Total precision CVs were found to be within the manufacturer's expected performance ranges, demonstrating good concordance of the system's measuring channels and a high reproducibility during the 2-4-week trial period. The functional sensitivity of 11 selected assays met the clinical requirements (e.g., thyreotroponin (TSH) 0.008 mU/l, troponin T 0.02 µg/l, total prostate-specific antigen (PSA) 0.03 µg/l). The E170 showed no drift during an 8-hour period and no relevant reagent carryover. Accuracy was confirmed by ring trial experiments and method comparisons vs. Elecsys® 2010. The reliability and practicability of the system's hardware and software met with, or even exceeded, the evaluator's requirements. Workflow studies showed that E170 can cover the combined workload of various routine analysers in a variety of laboratory environment. Throughput and sample processing time requirements were achieved while personnel ‘hands-on-time' could be reduce

Transmission Potential of Chikungunya Virus and Control Measures: The Case of Italy

During summer 2007 Italy has experienced an epidemic caused by Chikungunya virus – the first large outbreak documented in a temperate climate country – with approximately 161 laboratory confirmed cases concentrated in two bordering villages in North–Eastern Italy comprising 3,968 inhabitants. The seroprevalence was recently estimated to be 10.2%. In this work we provide estimates of the transmission potential of the virus and we assess the efficacy of the measures undertaken by public health authorities to control the epidemic spread. To such aim, we developed a model describing the temporal dynamics of the competent vector, known as Aedes albopictus, explicitly depending on climatic factors, coupled to an epidemic transmission model describing the spread of the epidemic in both humans and mosquitoes. The cumulative number of notified cases predicted by the model was 185 on average (95% CI 117–278), in good agreement with observed data. The probability of observing a major outbreak after the introduction of an infective human case was estimated to be in the range of 32%–76%. We found that the basic reproduction number was in the range of 1.8–6 but it could have been even larger, depending on the density of mosquitoes, which in turn depends on seasonal meteorological effects, besides other local abiotic factors. These results confirm the increasing risk of tropical vector–borne diseases in temperate climate countries, as a consequence of globalization. However, our results show that an epidemic can be controlled by performing a timely intervention, even if the transmission potential of Chikungunya virus is sensibly high

Analysis of Wave Fields During Ship Accidents in the North-Western Mediterranean

The occurrence of extreme waves in real sea conditions and their generation mechanisms are key elements in regional forecasts to improve the safety of navigation, especially in those severe conditions where large ships depart and adapt their routes based only on average wave parameters, as the significant wave height. In the present work we have analyzed a series of accidents occurred in the North-Western Mediterranean Sea to large passengers and cargo ships, involving injured people, damages and partial loss of cargo. We have performed phase-resolving numerical simulations based on the Higher Order Spectral Method (HOS), initialized with WaveWatch III (WWIII) directional wave spectra, to analyze in details the sea conditions during the accidents from a statistical point of view. For each case study we have repeated several 3-dimensional realizations to ensure statistical accuracy, and we have tested also the impact of the atmospherical forcing in the WWIII model as well as the nonlinear source term parametrization. The statistical analysis is based on the evaluation of statistical moments as skewness and kurtosis of the free surface elevation, which are typical indicators of nonlinearities and extreme waves, and on the reconstruction of crests distributions, from space-time analysis. Finally, we have focused the attention on spectral shapes similarities among the different case studies and on its possible effect on rogue waves formation