SIR Model for Estimations of the Coronavirus Epidemic Dynamics in Iran

Background: The Coronavirus 2019-nCOV (COVID-19) epidemic by SARS-CoV-2 is spreading worldwide, and by March 1, 2020, 67 countries, including Iran, have been affected. Many studies are being conducted at home and abroad to predict the outbreak of the disease so that they can make the necessary medical and health decisions in a timely manner. Methods: we used the SIR model to identify parameters to calculate epidemic features and some estimates of the new coronavirus. Data on the transmission of the novel coronavirus were extracted from the GitHub source in the covid19.analytics software package. Results: According to our model estimates, the rate of infection β = 1 and the rate of removal γ = 0.667 and index R0 = 1.497 were obtained. Because the value of R0 is more than one, it is still an epidemic disease. Given that tfinal~132 days was estimated, we can expect the transmission of this epidemic to stop in Iran after July 3, 2020, provided that existing quarantine measures and patient isolation rates continue as usual. In comparison with the global SIR model, we reached the peak of the infection earlier than the global model, but in improved and susceptible cases, we performed better than the global model. The graph of recovered and susceptible cases in Iran earlier than the global model cut off themselves. Conclusion: Forecasts are set to be a useful guide for deciding whether to transfer COVID-19. According to the predictions and estimates made, more attention should be paid to control measures. © 2020, Tehran University of Medical Sciences. All rights reserved

Investigation of health-promoting behaviors of employees of medical university: A perspective from West of Iran

BACKGROUND: Employees spend most of their time at work, and hence, it is important to pay attention to health-promoting behaviors. The purpose of the present study was to investigate the status of health-promoting behaviors of employees in the Medical University of Ilam-Iran. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This cross-sectional, descriptive study has been conducted by the participation of 208 employees, whom selected through the simple random sampling method. In the present study, participants completed Walker's Health Promoting Life Style Profile II in the self-report form. The gathered data were analyzed using software at the significant level of 0.05. Data were analyzed by the independent samples t-test, one-way analysis of variance, and Pearson correlation coefficients. RESULTS: The highest correlation of health-promoting behaviors was related to spiritual growth (r = 0.785), stress management (r = 0.777), interpersonal relationships (r = 0.767), health responsibility (r = 0.730), nutrition behaviors (r = 0.641), and physical activity (r = 0.611) were in the next places (P < 0.001), respectively. Among sub-scales, the highest correlation was observed between spiritual growth and stress management (r = 0.676, P < 0.001) and the lowest correlation between physical activity and interpersonal relationships (r = 0.253, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The score of physical activity was lower compared to other dimensions of health promoting behaviors. Therefore, it is necessary to make more effective interventional measures for improving physical activity status

Dietary intake of fish, n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of hip fracture: A systematic review and meta-analysis on observational studies

Previous studies have shown that fish consumption and dietary intake of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFAs) are associated with hip fracture; however, findings were conflicting. The present review aimed to summarize the current evidence on the association of fish consumption and dietary intake of n-3 PUFAs with hip fracture. The online databases of PubMed, ISI Web of Science, Scopus, ProQuest, Science Direct and Embase were searched until August 2017 for related publications using relevant keywords. To pool data, either a fixed-effects model or random-effects models were used. Cochran's Q tests were used to assess heterogeneity between studies. In total, 10 studies (7 prospective and 3 case-control studies) were included in this systematic review, and 9 studies with total sample size of 292657 participants were included in the meta-analysis. The age of participants was 20 years or older. Combining 8 effect sizes from 4 prospective studies and 2 case-control studies revealed a significant inverse association between fish consumption and risk of hip fracture (pooled effect size: 0.88, 95 CI: 0.79-0.98, P = 0.02). Although this relationship became non-significant in prospective studies, a significant inverse association was found in prospective studies with sample size of 10000 individuals or more, and studies that considered body mass index as a covariate. Furthermore, dietary intake of n-3 PUFAs was inversely associated with risk of hip fracture (pooled effect size: 0.89, 95 CI: 0.80-0.99, P = 0.02). Also, such relationship was seen after excluding one case-control study and combining effect sizes only from prospective studies (pooled effect size: 0.88, 95 CI: 0.80-0.98, P = 0.02). In conclusion, we found that fish consumption and dietary intake of n-3 PUFAs might have protective effects on bone health and decline the risk of hip fracture. © 2017, © 2017 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Dietary intake of fish, n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of hip fracture: A systematic review and meta-analysis on observational studies

Previous studies have shown that fish consumption and dietary intake of n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (n-3 PUFAs) are associated with hip fracture; however, findings were conflicting. The present review aimed to summarize the current evidence on the association of fish consumption and dietary intake of n-3 PUFAs with hip fracture. The online databases of PubMed, ISI Web of Science, Scopus, ProQuest, Science Direct and Embase were searched until August 2017 for related publications using relevant keywords. To pool data, either a fixed-effects model or random-effects models were used. Cochran's Q tests were used to assess heterogeneity between studies. In total, 10 studies (7 prospective and 3 case-control studies) were included in this systematic review, and 9 studies with total sample size of 292657 participants were included in the meta-analysis. The age of participants was 20 years or older. Combining 8 effect sizes from 4 prospective studies and 2 case-control studies revealed a significant inverse association between fish consumption and risk of hip fracture (pooled effect size: 0.88, 95 CI: 0.79-0.98, P = 0.02). Although this relationship became non-significant in prospective studies, a significant inverse association was found in prospective studies with sample size of 10000 individuals or more, and studies that considered body mass index as a covariate. Furthermore, dietary intake of n-3 PUFAs was inversely associated with risk of hip fracture (pooled effect size: 0.89, 95 CI: 0.80-0.99, P = 0.02). Also, such relationship was seen after excluding one case-control study and combining effect sizes only from prospective studies (pooled effect size: 0.88, 95 CI: 0.80-0.98, P = 0.02). In conclusion, we found that fish consumption and dietary intake of n-3 PUFAs might have protective effects on bone health and decline the risk of hip fracture. © 2017, © 2017 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC

Effect of probiotic and synbiotic supplementation on inflammatory markers in health and disease status: A systematic review and meta-analysis of clinical trials

The current systematic review and meta-analysis investigated the effect of probiotic/synbiotic on a wide range of inflammatory and anti-inflammatory markers in healthy and various disease conditions. PubMed, SCOPUS and Web of Science databases were searched. All clinical trials which investigated the effect of oral administration of probiotic or synbiotic on inflammatory markers (C-reactive protein (CRP), interleukin (IL) 1β, IL-4, IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12, tumor necrosis factor (TNF) α, interferon (IFN) γ and transforming growth factor (TGF) β) for more than one week with concurrent control groups were included. One-hundred sixty seven publications was analysed. Results were as follows: CRP decreased in healthy, metabolic disorders, inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), arthritis and critically ill condition but not in renal failure. IL-1B: no change in healthy subjects and arthritis. TNF-α: decreased in healthy, fatty liver, IBD and hepatic cirrhosis, no change in diabetes, metabolic syndrome (MS) + PCOS (polycystic ovary syndrome) and arthritis. IL-6: no change in healthy, metabolic disorders and arthritis, increased in cirrhosis and renal failure, decreased in PCOS + MS. IL-10: no change in healthy, IBD and metabolic disorders, increased in arthritis. IL-4, IL-8, IL-12, IFN-g and TGF-b: no change in healthy subjects. In conclusion, probiotic/synbiotic decreased some of the inflammatory markers. The intervention was most effective in CRP and TNF-α reduction in healthy or disease state. Moreover, the intervention decreased inflammation most effectively in the following disease conditions, respectively: IBD, arthritis, fatty liver. PROSPERO registration number: CRD42018088688. © 2019 Elsevier Ltd and European Society for Clinical Nutrition and Metabolis

A Retrospective Cohort Study of SARS-CoV-2 Mortality Rate in Individuals with Opioid Use Disorder in Ilam (Southwest of Iran)

Background & Objective: Individuals with opioid use disorder are a marginalized population in any society. They commonly have a weaker immune system, greater stress vulnerability, poorer health, more high-risk behaviors, and less access to healthcare services compared to the general population, which can expose them to a risk of severe COVID-19 complications. This study aimed to evaluate the effects of opioid use disorder on mortality in patients with SARS-CoV-2. Materials & Methods: This registry-based retrospective cohort study was conducted on 2362 consecutive inpatients with a confirmed diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 between March 5, 2020 and March 21, 2021, presenting to a university hospital in Ilam in the southwest of Iran. Forty-five patients with opioid use disorder were identified in this study and matched to 100 patients without opium addiction. All patients with a history of opium addiction were included in the study group, and age-and sex-matched patients without opioid use disorder were randomly recruited as the controls. After adjusting for the effects of age and comorbidities, data were analyzed in STATA version 10, using logistic regression models. Results: The mortality of patients with opioid use disorder increased following COVID-19 (adjusted OR: 6.59; 95 CI: 1.84–23.59; P=0.004). Hypertension (adjusted OR: 8.17; 95 CI: 2.21–30.15; P=0.002) and advancing age (OR: 1.06; 95 CI: 1.01–1.11; P=0.01) were significantly associated with increased COVID-19 mortality. Conclusion: Based on the present findings, opioid use disorder is a possible risk factor for mortality following COVID-19. The findings of the present study can be applied in the implementation of preventive measures and policies and prioritization of COVID-19 vaccination. However, further relevant research is recommended. © 2022, Zanjan University of Medical Sciences and Health Services. All rights reserved