Estimate Precipitation Changes in the East and West of the Zagros Main Thrust

AbstractIn relation to the effect of unevenness and precipitation, two issues have occupied the mind of researchers: First, the effect of altitude on increasing rainfall, and second, the effect of unevenness on the creation of deserts. The combination of these two effects has made it impossible to estimate a regression relationship between Zagros altitude and precipitation with a significant coefficient of explanation. The purpose of the present study is to investigate the precipitation situation in the western (rain-facing) and eastern (rain-sheltered) slopes of the Zagros main thrust and to create wind-sheltered (rain-sheltered) areas. To investigate the effect of the Zagros Mountain Range in the creation of sheltered areas, the function and relationship of the factors of altitude and precipitation were investigated as effective parameters in the creation of different slopes of this mountain range. Maps of both precipitation and altitude were extracted for the Zagros Mountain Range. According to the results obtained from examining the relationship between the maps of precipitation and altitude, it can be said that the increase in precipitation in the windward slopes has significant coordination with the increase in altitude, but the increase in precipitation does not continue until the main thrust of Zagros. In most of the regions, the maximum rainfall occurred before the maximum height of Zagros (corresponding to the main Zagros Thrust). When passing through the Zagros thrust despite the significant height of the region, the amount of precipitation has significantly decreased. In the northern parts of Zagros, the biggest change of precipitation has happened in the wind shelter part, in the vicinity of the highest peak. Considering the high altitude in the sub-basins to the east of the Zagros Thrust, as well as their lower slope compared to the basins located in the west, they receive less rainfall due to their sheltered position. But since they have more receiving surface and because of the high altitude, they receive most of the precipitation in solid form. More penetration of water into the ground is possible during the stages of snow melting. In addition, this phenomenon has considerable ecological effects.Keywords: Zagros Main Thrust, Wind Sheltered Desert, Dry Areas, Rain Shadow. IntroductionIran is a vast mountainous land that covers most of the plateau with the same name (Mahmoudi, 1988). The southwestern mountainous unit of Iran is known as Zagros, which limits the Iranian plateau from the west, southwest, and part of the south. Zagros ranges in the form of regular and similar strands form the largest unevenness unit of Iran (Zomordian, 2006, p. 209).In the heterogeneous spatial distribution of atmospheric precipitation and the formation of deserts, geographical conditions and especially the altitude factor play an effective role. How unevenness affects the received precipitation in mountainous areas is not a simple matter. Because in the first place, the gradient of precipitation is not the same in all the mountains of the country, and even in a certain mountain, the gradient of precipitation is not the same on the wind-facing (windward) slopes and the wind-back (shelter) ones. Another issue is that in all mountains, precipitation does not increase with increasing altitude, and in areas where the amount of precipitation increases with increasing altitude, this direct relationship does not continue to the top of the mountains and does not increase more than a certain height with the increase in rainfall. Finally, in addition to the complexity of the relationship between precipitation and altitude, there is a lack of measurement in high altitudes. The effect of unevenness on the precipitation situation is a definite principle; however, it cannot be firmly expected that by passing the high peak, the precipitation will decrease to the extent of desert formation. But investigating changes in the amount of precipitation in mountainous areas is always the concern of researchers. This study aims to investigate the precipitation situation in the western (rain-facing) and eastern (rain-sheltered) slopes of the Zagros main thrust and to create wind-sheltered (rain-sheltered) areas. Materials and Methods The information sources of this research include 1:50000 topographic maps, 1:100000 geological maps, a digital height model of Iran, and library resources. To conduct this study, the height of Zagros was determined according to its reflected border in Google Earth and ArcGIS. Then, climatic, rain gauge, and hydrometer stations were identified within the area and at a distance of 40 km from the studied area, and the required data were extracted from the recorded information of those stations. In order to investigate and analyze the climatic situation of the region, relationships were estimated between precipitation and altitude in each basin, and based on them, the isohyet of the Zagros Mountains was drawn. In order to investigate the effect of the Zagros Mountain Range in the creation of sheltered areas, the function and relationship of the factors of altitude and precipitation were investigated as effective parameters in their creation in different slopes of the Zagros. Maps of both precipitation and altitude of the study area were extracted for the Zagros Mountain Range. According to the axis of numerous descents and ascents of the Zagros Mountains, those areas that receive little rainfall under their influence were determined and the situation of wind-sheltered areas is also analyzed. Research FindingsTo better understand the variability of precipitation in the studied area, the precipitation and height profiles were drawn perpendicular to the main Zagros thrust line, which connects the highest peak of the Zagros Mountain Range from the north to the south of the Zagros Mountain Range. By drawing precipitation and height profiles, the general state of changes in height and precipitation in the axis of the Zagros Thrust has been depicted. The increase in precipitation in the windward slopes is coordinated with the increase in altitude, and this increase does not necessarily continue to the main thrust of Zagros. After crossing the Zagros Thrust, even without a significant decrease in altitude, the amount of precipitation has decreased to the easternmost part of Zagros. Such a situation indicates that the main thrust of Zagros actually corresponds to the border of the rain shadow areas. The west of it is covered by its rainy core, which is caused by the slope facing the wind. Despite the higher altitude in the east, the rainfall decreases due to the rain shadow.Discussion of Results and ConclusionIn general, unevenness has a mechanical effect on the incoming air masses. According to the results obtained from examining the relationship between the maps of precipitation and altitude, it can be said that the increase in precipitation in the windward slopes has a significant relationship with the increase in altitude, but the increase in precipitation does not continue until the main thrust of Zagros. In most of the regions, the maximum rainfall occurred before the maximum height of Zagros (corresponding to the main Zagros Thrust). When passing through the Zagros thrust despite the significant height of the region, the amount of precipitation has a noticeable decrease. In the northern parts of Zagros, the biggest change of precipitation has happened in the wind shelter in the vicinity of the highest peak. Due to the high altitude in the sub-basins to the east of the Zagros Thrust, as well as their lower slope compared to the basins located in the west, they receive less rainfall due to their sheltered position. But because they have more receiving surface and due to their high altitude, they receive most of the precipitation in solid form

Analysis of the relationship between dominant lithological features in the sub-basins of Zagros tectonic unit and their fractal dimension

Fractal geometry is a suitable instrument for studying and understanding the complex behavior of a river. The most important feature of the fractal is its dimension. The purpose of this essay is to evaluate the fractal dimension on a large scale in the morphotectonic unit of Zagros and its analysis using fractal geometry theory and Horton-Strahler ranking.For this purpose the waterways were ranked by Horton and Strahler method. It seems that the fractal dimension less than 1 and more than 2 is due to the tectonics and lithology of the sub-basin, which has caused the sub-basins not to reach balance in terms of fractal dimension at the surface or line.Of course, this does not mean that the fractal dimension follows the basin lithology in an abstract way, but it indicates that the spatial distribution of lithology in a basin along with morphotectonic evidence such as faults can get the fractal dimension of the basin out of balance. An exact connection cannot be estimated between the fractal dimension and the physiographic characteristics of the sub-basins of the Zagros morphotectonic unit

Identification, density and physio-graphic characteristics of Dolans in different altitude classes (Zagros karst areas)

Doline is one of the most characteristic and basic surface and morphological forms of karst, as a result of the chemical effect of water on limestone that occurs in different shapes and sizes. Dolines differ in morphological characteristics. In the present study, after identifying the valleys in the karst areas of the Zagros, their dispersion and change of morphological characteristics such as length, width, area and depth in relation to altitude and climate, citing documentary sources such as geological maps 1: 100000, digital elevation model layer with strength 12.5 m resolution, satellite imagery, 1: 50,000 topographic maps, and 49-year-old Esfzari temperature and precipitation databases were analyzed in Arc GIS, Mapper Global, and Excel software. The study of different parameters of Zagros valleys in different altitudes and climates indicates that their shape and depth have been affected by Quaternary climate change. At lower altitudes, where water is more involved in dissolution than low temperatures, the dolines are nearly circular in shape and stretch at higher altitudes and the lower the temperature and the greater the likelihood of the doline turning into a glacial-doline circus, the more elongated the doline becomes. The compression coefficient of the dolines also indicates that their elongation and length increase with increasing height; in this way, at an altitude distance of 500-1000 meters, the ratio of circles for every 1000m increase in height increases by 0.8 and the compression coefficient decreases by 0.9. At an altitude distance of 1000-2000m, with each increase of 100m, the ratio of circles is 0.44 and the compression coefficient is 0.1. In the 3700-3000m floor, the circular ratio decreases by 1.2 with each elevation of 1000m, and the compaction increases by 1.3

Global, regional, and national burden of colorectal cancer and its risk factors, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Funding: F Carvalho and E Fernandes acknowledge support from Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia, I.P. (FCT), in the scope of the project UIDP/04378/2020 and UIDB/04378/2020 of the Research Unit on Applied Molecular Biosciences UCIBIO and the project LA/P/0140/2020 of the Associate Laboratory Institute for Health and Bioeconomy i4HB; FCT/MCTES through the project UIDB/50006/2020. J Conde acknowledges the European Research Council Starting Grant (ERC-StG-2019-848325). V M Costa acknowledges the grant SFRH/BHD/110001/2015, received by Portuguese national funds through Fundação para a Ciência e Tecnologia (FCT), IP, under the Norma Transitória DL57/2016/CP1334/CT0006.proofepub_ahead_of_prin

The Active Morphotectonics Quantitative Assessment on the slopes of Alvand

Neo-tectonic has a very important role in the morphological evolution of each drainage basin. The tectonic history can be retrieved by morphotectonics quantitative indicators in each region. Hamedan batholith masses valleys with NW-SE direction in the South, South East, and West of Hamadan, have been influenced heavily by the geomorphological, tectonic and other eroding factors. The core of tectonic geomorphology is the study of the frequency of tectonic processes that tend to topography and surface processes. By studying Morphotectonics indexes can be assessed valleys an unstable. Evaluation of Morphotectonics indicators in the northeastern and southwestern slopes of the mountain front sinuosity Hamedan according to different heights of mountain front is purpose of this study Evaluation of tectonic activity in Alvand mass range, have been estimated by using Morphotectonics indicators in 28 sub-basin, topographic maps with scale 1:50000, satellite images, field visits and software. The results of slope length of the river (SL), asymmetric factor (Af), integral hypsometric curve (Hi), valley floor width-to-height ratio (Vf), Mountain-front sinuosity (Smf), transverse topographic (Tp) and sinusoidal of river (Sr) indicators were assessed by using IAT index. According to this index, 50% of Northeast Slope sub-basins and 37.5% of southwest slope sub-basins have gained class 3 activities which imply a more active tectonics of the southwest toward the northeast slope. Due to the erosion and geological factors, south-west slopes tectonic activity is more evident than north-east slopes. The northeast slopes Mountain-front sinuosity is 200 meters higher than south-west slopes, according to the higher density of faults on the southern slopes of Alvand can say that the lower altitude mountain-front has provided favorable conditions for reflection Morphotectonics area

Heat stress in an open-pit iron ore mine and its relationship with physiological strain

Introduction: Workers in open pit iron ore mines are exposed to heat stress which can cause health and safety problems. The purpose of this study was to evaluate heat stress among open-pit mine workers of iron ore based on Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) index and also to investigate its relationship with physiological Strain. Material and Method: This cross-sectional study was conducted on 120 healthy miners, working in an open-pit mine, during summer season, in 2014. Physiological parameters, including core body temperatures and heart rate, were measured according to ISO 9886 standard and physiological strain indices, including Physiological Strain Index (PSI) and Physiological Strain Index based on Heart Rate (PSIHR), were calculated using the equation. Environmental variables as well as physiological parameters were simultaneously measured and recorded during work shift. WBGT index was calculated according to ISO 7243 and using the equation. Statistical analysis was performed using the SPSS software version 22. &nbsp; Result: The mean WBGT index was estimated 29.09oC for workers. &ldquo;Drilling&rdquo; and &ldquo;factory and Krasher&rdquo; units showed the highest and lowest WBGT index values of 31.06oC and 29.05oC, respectively. Workers occupational exposure to heat stress were higher than recommended thresholds based on WBGT index in all work units. A statistically significant correlation was found between WBGT index and physiological strain indices (P value<0.001). The Pearson&rsquo;s correlation coefficients were obtained 0.658 and 0.566 respectively, between WBGT index and values of PSI and PSIHR. Conclusion: WBGT index showed a higher correlation with physiological strain Index; and level of heat stress in all work units of mine was higher than recommended thresholds. Thus, countermeasures should be adopted to control heat stress for the workers in this field

Environmental risk assessment using the Persian version of the Home Falls And Screening Tool (HOME FAST) in Iranian elderly

Introduction: One of the common problems among older people is falling. Falling inside the houses and streets makes up a large incidence between Iranian elderly, then the effort to identify environmental factors at home and home modification can reduce falls and injury in the elderly. The aim of this study is identifying elderly at risk of fall with using screening tool (HOME FAST) and define reliability of this tool.Material and Methods: As a reliability, through the health housing of the town councils in five geographical regions of Tehran, 60 old person were selected. Participants aged 60 to 65 years and the HOME FAST tool was used in the two stages (inter rater and test-retest).Results: Test-retest reliability in the study showed that agreement between the items is over than 0.8, which shows very good reliability. The results showed that the relative of the each item in the Agreement between the domain is 1 - 0.65, which shows moderate to high reliability. And the results in this study showed that agreement between the items in Inter rater reliability is over than 0.8, which shows the level of reliability is very good. Also it showed that the relative of the each item in the agreement between the domain is 1 - 0.01, which shows poor to high reliability.Conclusion: This study shows that the reliability of the HOME FAST is high. The findings of these comments have been expected that the test objectives were appropriate to prevent falls and the tools showed acceptable reliability, then this test can be used as a tool for to professionals

Injury burden in individuals aged 50 years or older in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 1990–2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Injury poses a major threat to health and longevity in adults aged 50 years or older. The increased life expectancy in the Eastern Mediterranean region warrants a further understanding of the ageing population's inevitable changing health demands and challenges. We aimed to examine injury-related morbidity and mortality among adults aged 50 years or older in 22 Eastern Mediterranean countries. Methods: Drawing on data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019, we categorised the population into adults aged 50–69 years and adults aged 70 years and older. We examined estimates for transport injuries, self-harm injuries, and unintentional injuries for both age groups, with sex differences reported, and analysed the percentage changes from 1990 to 2019. We reported injury-related mortality rates and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). The Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and the Healthcare Access and Quality (HAQ) Index were used to better understand the association of socioeconomic factors and health-care system performance, respectively, with injuries and health status in older people. Healthy life expectancy (HALE) was compared with injury-related deaths and DALYs and to the SDI and HAQ Index to understand the effect of injuries on healthy ageing. Finally, risk factors for injury deaths between 1990 and 2019 were assessed. 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) are given for all estimates. Findings: Estimated injury mortality rates in the Eastern Mediterranean region exceeded the global rates in 2019, with higher injury mortality rates in males than in females for both age groups. Transport injuries were the leading cause of deaths in adults aged 50–69 years (43·0 [95% UI 31·0–51·8] per 100 000 population) and in adults aged 70 years or older (66·2 [52·5–75·5] per 100 000 population), closely followed by conflict and terrorism for both age groups (10·2 [9·3–11·3] deaths per 100 000 population for 50–69 years and 45·7 [41·5–50·3] deaths per 100 000 population for ≥70 years). The highest annual percentage change in mortality rates due to injury was observed in Afghanistan among people aged 70 years or older (400·4% increase; mortality rate 1109·7 [1017·7–1214·7] per 100 000 population). The leading cause of DALYs was transport injuries for people aged 50–69 years (1798·8 [1394·1–2116·0] per 100 000 population) and unintentional injuries for those aged 70 years or older (2013·2 [1682·2–2408·7] per 100 000 population). The estimates for HALE at 50 years and at 70 years in the Eastern Mediterranean region were lower than global estimates. Eastern Mediterranean countries with the lowest SDIs and HAQ Index values had high prevalence of injury DALYs and ranked the lowest for HALE at 50 years of age and HALE at 70 years. The leading injury mortality risk factors were occupational exposure in people aged 50–69 years and low bone mineral density in those aged 70 years or older. Interpretation: Injuries still pose a real threat to people aged 50 years or older living in the Eastern Mediterranean region, mainly due to transport and violence-related injuries. Dedicated efforts should be implemented to devise injury prevention strategies that are appropriate for older adults and cost-effective injury programmes tailored to the needs and resources of local health-care systems, and to curtail injury-associated risk and promote healthy ageing. Funding: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation