A 30-year trend of the incidence and death of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancers in Iran and forecasting until 2026 based on time series analysis

Objective: Lung cancer is the second most common cancer in the world, with an estimated 2.2 million new cases and 1.8 million deaths and is the fifth most common cancer in men and the sixth most common cancer in women in Iran. This study was conducted to investigate a 30-year trend of the incidence and death of tracheal, bronchial, and lung cancer in Iran and its forecasting until 2026. Materials and Methods: The Iranian population's age-standardized (ASR) incidence and death rates of tracheal, bronchial, and lung (TBL) cancers were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Online Database from 1990 to 2019. Statistical analysis was performed using the time series method with Interactive Time Series Modeling (ITSM) software and Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Results: The age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR) and the age-standardized death rate (ASDR) of lung cancer in Iranians (both gender) had an increasing trend from 2004 to 2019 among men and from 1990 to 2019 in women with a continued predicted increasing trend for 7 years. ASIR will increase to 13.53, 17.36, and 9.26 per 100,000 people in the total population, men and women, respectively. ASDR will increase to 14.13, 18.18, and 9.22 per 100,000 people in the total population, men and women, respectively. Conclusions: In according to the predicted increasing trend of TBL cancers in Iran in the future, the reasons for the continuation of this increasing trend should be fully investigated, and then by using the experiences of successful countries in reducing lung cancer, effective measures should be considered to reduce the morbidity, mortality, and burden of these cancers in Iran

Pattern of contributing behaviors and their determinants among people living with HIV in Iran: A 30-year nationwide study

Introduction: A major shift in the routes of HIV transmission seams to be taking place in Iran. Our study aimed to investigate the 30-year trend of major HIV related behaviors in Iran. Methods: The national HIV/AIDS registry database (from September 1986 to July 2016 with data on 32,168 people newly diagnosed with HIV) was used to study the 30 years trend and demographic determinants of major HIV related behaviors. Results: The highest rate of drug injection (DI) among people living with HIV (PLHIV) was reported during 1996 to 1999 (p-for trend < 0.001) while the highest rate of sexual activity by minorities or hard to reach groups was during 2004 to 2011 (p-for trend < 0.001). Among males, drug injection was directly associated with being single (ORsingle/married = 1.34), being unemployed (ORunemployed/employed = 1.94) and having lower level of education (OR<highschool/≥highschool = 2.21). Regarding females, drug injection was associated with being housewife (ORhousewife/employed = 1.35) and lower level of education (OR<highschool/≥highschool = 1.85). In females, condomless sexual contact was more common among those younger (OR20−29/<20 = 6.15), and married (ORmarried/single = 7.76). However, among males those being single (ORmarried/single = 0.82), being more educated (OR≥highschool/<highschool = 1.24), and being unemployed (ORunemployed/employed = 1.53) reported more sexual activity by minoritised or hard to reach groups. Discussion: The pattern of major HIV related behaviors among Iranian males and females have been rapidly changing and people living with HIV (PLHIV) are being diagnosed at a younger age. Health education to younger individuals is an essential HIV controlling strategy among Iranian population. Implementation of surveys in hidden and hard-to-reach populations is also recommended. Copyright © 2023 Gheibi, Fararouei, Afrashteh, Akbari, Afsar Kazerooni and Shokoohi

Determinants of AIDS and non-AIDS related mortality among people living with HIV in Shiraz, southern Iran: A 20-year retrospective follow-up study

Abstract Background Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) infection has become a global concern. Determining the factors leading to death among HIV patients helps controlling Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS) epidemic. Up to now, little is known about mortality and its determinants among people living with HIV in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, including Iran. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk factors of AIDS-Related Mortality (ARM) and Non-AIDS-Related Mortality (NARM) among people with HIV in Iran. Methods This 20-year retrospective study was conducted on 1160 people with HIV whose data were collected from 1997 to 2017. The association of the study outcomes (ARM and NARM) with various study variables, including demographic status at the time of diagnosis and clinical indexes during the follow-up were examined to define the predictors of mortality among the patients. Regarding, Cox proportional hazard and competing risk models were fitted and Adjusted Hazard Ratios (AHR), Sub-distribution Hazard Ratio (SHR) and the 95% Confidence Intervals (CI) were reported. Results during the follow-up period, 391 individuals (33.7%) died with 86,375 person-years of follow-up. Of the total deaths, 251 (64.2%) and 140 (35.8%) were ARM and NARM, respectively. Rates of the mortality caused by AIDS and non-AIDS were 3.2 and 4.5 per 1000 person-months, respectively. Responding to combined Antiretroviral Treatment (cART) 6 months after initiation, receiving Pneumocystis Pneumonia (PCP) prophylaxis, and higher CD4 count at diagnosis, reduced the hazard of ARM and NARM. However, older age, late HIV diagnosis, and last HIV clinical stages increased the hazard of AIDS related to mortality. Additionally, male gender, older age, incarceration history, and last HIV clinical stages increased the non-AIDS mortality. Conclusions Mortality caused by AIDS and non-AIDS remains high among people with HIV in Iran, particularly among males and those with late diagnosis. It seems that applying effective strategies to identify infected individuals at earlier stage of the infection, and targeting individuals with higher risk of mortality can decrease the mortality rate among HIV infected people

Statistical optimization, soft computing prediction, mechanistic and empirical evaluation for fundamental appraisal of copper, lead and malachite green adsorption

This paper describes an efficient and low cost material for treatment of Cu2+, Pb2+ and malachite green from aquatic environments. Aerated Autoclave Concrete (AAC) was used as a low cost bed and modified by chitosan to synthesize of AAC?CH composite. Then, it was analyzed by the Energy Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX), X-Ray Fluorescence (XRF), Field Emission Scanning Electron Microscopy (FE-SEM) and Fourier Transform Infrared spectrophotometry (FT-IR) analysis. The key factors influencing on the removal percentage among each run including, sample's pH, amounts of adsorbent and contact time were optimized by the Central Composite Design in Response Surface Methodology (CCD-RSM). Based on the obtained results, the optimum conditions for the removal of both Cu2+ and Pb2+ are pH 5.8, amounts of adsorbent: 14 mg and 58 min contact time. Also, for MG, its maximum removal percentage obtained at pH 9.7, 13 mg adsorbent and 55 min removal time. In addition, the variations of adsorptive behaviors were scrutinized by Adaptive Network-based Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) based on Sugeno model with focusing on removal percentage predictions. Also, to evaluate the adsorption mechanism, Dubinin?Radushkevich (D-R), Langmuir, Temkin, Freundlich (two parameter equations) and Sips, Khan and Toth isotherms (Three parameter equations) were appraised and the outcomes demonstrate that the adsorptive reaction of Pb2+, Cu2+ and MG governed by the Freundlich isotherm with the maximum adsorption capacities of 78.12, 56.82 and 833.33 mg g?1, correspondingly. Likewise, outputs of the D-R and Temkin isotherms show that the physiosorption process is the main interaction of analytes with AAC?CH composite. The consequences of the kinetic modeling illustrated that the adsorptive reaction of Cu2+, Pb2+ and MG followed by the pseudo second order adsorption kinetic. The geometry kinetic computing depicted that the adsorption/desorption rates don't have any interfering during reaction process. The advantages such as high efficiency, low cost, reusability and green aspect, make AAC?CH composite as a high performance adsorbent for decontamination of Pb2+, Cu2+ and MG from water resources.Scopu