Can post-Corona fiscal discipline be sustained? The case of Norway proves top civil servants can make it happen

COVID-19 has caused extremally high levels of budgetary deficits and government borrowing, which in the future will require more stringent fiscal policies write Benny Geys and Rune J. Sørensen (BI Norwegian Business School). How can post-Corona fiscal discipline be sustained? Budget preparation by top civil servants can allow for better balancing of the books, they claim

Bayesian sequential integration within a preclinical pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic modeling framework:Lessons learned

The present manuscript aims to discuss the implications of sequential knowledge integration of small preclinical trials in a Bayesian pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PK-PD) framework. While, at first sight, a Bayesian PK-PD framework seems to be a natural framework to allow for sequential knowledge integration, the scope of this paper is to highlight some often-overlooked challenges while at the same time providing some guidances in the many and overwhelming choices that need to be made. Challenges as well as opportunities will be discussed that are related to the impact of (1) the prior specification, (2) the choice of random effects, (3) the type of sequential integration method. In addition, it will be shown how the success of a sequential integration strategy is highly dependent on a carefully chosen experimental design when small trials are analyzed

Do international institutions matter? Socialization and international bureaucrats

A key component of (neo-)functionalist and constructivist approaches to the study of international organizations concerns staff socialization. Existing analyses of how, or indeed whether, staff develop more pro-internationalist attitudes over time draw predominantly on cross-sectional data. Yet, such data cannot address (self-)selection issues or capture the inherently temporal nature of attitude change. This article proposes an innovative approach to the study of international socialization using an explicitly longitudinal design. Analysing two waves of a large-scale survey conducted within the European Commission in 2008 and 2014, it examines the beliefs and values of the same individuals over time and exploits exogenous organizational changes to identify causal effects. Furthermore, the article theorizes and assesses specified scope conditions affecting socialization processes. Showing that international institutions do, in fact, influence value acquisition by individual bureaucrats, our results contest the widely held view that international organizations are not a socializing environment. Our analysis also demonstrates that age at entry and gender significantly affect the intensity of such value change

Tactical Voting in Plurality Elections

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical voting as the driving ingredient for the anomalies and introduce a model to study its effect on plurality elections, characterized by the relative strength of the feedback from polls and the pairwise interaction between individuals in the society. With this model it becomes possible to explain the polarization of votes between two candidates, understand the small margin of victories frequently observed for different elections, and analyze the polls' impact in American, Canadian, and Brazilian ballots. Moreover, the model reproduces, quantitatively, the distribution of votes obtained in the Brazilian mayor elections with two, three, and four candidates.Comment: 7 pages, 4 figure