Beyond multimorbidity:What can we learn from complexity science?

Multimorbidity - the occurrence of two or more long-term conditions in an individual - is a major global concern, placing a huge burden on healthcare systems, physicians, and patients. It challenges the current biomedical paradigm, in particular conventional evidence-based medicine's dominant focus on single-conditions. Patients' heterogeneous range of clinical presentations tend to escape characterization by traditional means of classification, and optimal management cannot be deduced from clinical practice guidelines. In this article, we argue that person-focused care based in complexity science may be a transformational lens through which to view multimorbidity, to complement the specialism focus on each particular disease. The approach offers an integrated and coherent perspective on the person's living environment, relationships, somatic, emotional and cognitive experiences and physiological function. The underlying principles include non-linearity, tipping points, emergence, importance of initial conditions, contextual factors and co-evolution, and the presence of patterned outcomes. From a clinical perspective, complexity science has important implications at the theoretical, practice and policy levels. Three essential questions emerge: (1) What matters to patients? (2) How can we integrate, personalize and prioritize care for whole people, given the constraints of their socio-ecological circumstances? (3) What needs to change at the practice and policy levels to deliver what matters to patients? These questions have no simple answers, but complexity science principles suggest a way to integrate understanding of biological, biographical and contextual factors, to guide an integrated approach to the care of people with multimorbidity

Cardiovascular disease, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors from 1980 to 2010: A comparative risk assessment

Background: High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010. Methods: We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates. Findings: In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain. Interpretation: The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases. Funding: UK Medical Research Council, US National Institutes of Health. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd

History of violence and subjective health of mother and child: From The Childbirth and Health Cohort Study in Primary Care, Iceland

Objective: To study the self-reported prevalence of experienced violence among a cohort of women about two years after giving birth, their health during pregnancy, pregnancy outcomes and their experience of their child’s health. Setting and subjects: In 2011, a total of 657 women participated in phase III of the Childbirth and Health Cohort Study in Icelandic Primary Health Care, 18 to 24 months after delivery. The women had previously participated in phase I around pregnancy week 16 and phase II 5–6 months after delivery. Data were collected by postal questionnaires. Main outcome measures: Women’s reported history of experienced violence, sociodemographic and obstetric background, self-perceived health, the use of medications and their child’s perceived health. Results: In phase III, 16% of women reported experiencing violence. These women felt less support from their current partner (p < 0.001), compared to those who did not report violence. Their pregnancies were more frequently unplanned (p < 0.001), deliveries more often by caesarean section (p < 0.05), and their self-perceived health was worse (p < 0.001). They reported more mental and somatic health complaints, and their use of antidepressant drugs was higher (p < 0.001). Furthermore, women with a history of violence considered their child’s general health as worse (p = 0.008). Conclusions: Our study confirms that a history of violence is common among women. A history of violence is associated with various maternal health problems during and after pregnancy, a higher rate of caesarean sections and maternal reports of health problems in their child 18–24 months after birth.KEY POINTS   Violence is a major concern worldwide. Understanding the impact of violence on human health and developing effective preventive measures are important elements of any public health agenda.   • The reported prevalence of experiencing violence was 16% among women attending antenatal care in the primary health care setting in Iceland.   • Women with a history of violence reported worse health in general during pregnancy and delivered more often by caesarean section, compared to women with no such history.   • Mothers with a history of violence also evaluated the general health of their child as worse than women with no such history.   • The findings of this study support the importance of recognizing and addressing experienced violence among women in primary care

Immediate surge in female visits to the cardiac emergency department following the economic collapse in Iceland: an observational study.

To access publisher full text version of this article. Please click on the hyperlink in Additional Links field.The dramatic economic collapse in Iceland in October 2008 was associated with an immediate short-term increase in female attendance at the cardiac ED

National, regional, and global trends in systolic blood pressure since 1980: systematic analysis of health examination surveys and epidemiological studies with 786 country-years and 5.4 million participants

Background Data for trends in blood pressure are needed to understand the effects of its dietary, lifestyle, and pharmacological determinants; set intervention priorities; and evaluate national programmes. However, few worldwide analyses of trends in blood pressure have been done. We estimated worldwide trends in population mean systolic blood pressure (SBP)

The Global Cardiovascular Risk Transition Associations of Four Metabolic Risk Factors with National Income, Urbanization, and Western Diet in 1980 and 2008

Background-It is commonly assumed that cardiovascular disease risk factors are associated with affluence and Westernization. We investigated the associations of body mass index (BMI), fasting plasma glucose, systolic blood pressure, and serum total cholesterol with national income, Western diet, and, for BMI, urbanization in 1980 and 2008