Factors Affecting Virological Failure in Children Receiving First-Line Antiretroviral Therapy in Ethiopian Healthcare Facilities: A Retrospective Analysis

Mitiku Desalegn,1 Tewoderos Shitemaw,2 Mesfin Tesfaye,3 Genanew Kassie Getahun3 1Department of Anesthesia, College of Medicine and Health Science, Wachemo University, Hossana, Ethiopia; 2Menelik II Medical and Health Science College, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia; 3Department of Public Health, Menelik II Medical and Health Science College, Addis Ababa, EthiopiaCorrespondence: Mitiku Desalegn, Email [email protected]: The causes of virological failure are poorly recognized and investigated. This study aimed to identify determinant factors of viral failure in children taking first-line ART at a randomly selected federal hospital in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.Methods: A facility-based unmatched case–control study was carried out from May 10, 2022, to July 20, 2022, G.C. among HIV-infected children on first-line antiretroviral therapy. There were 209 HIV-positive youngsters in the study’s overall sample size, comprising 53 cases and 156 controls. Data was gathered by chart review using an organized checklist in English. The data were entered using Epi-data 4.2 and exported into SPSS version 24 for analysis. The relationship between each explanatory variable and the result variable was described using both bivariate and multivariate analysis. An adjusted odds ratio with 95% confidence intervals was conducted, and a p-value 47 months, fair and poor adherence, missed clinical appointments, and baseline WHO Stage 4 are factors that increase the odds of virological failure. History of ART Drug change and a CD4 count between 250 and 500 cells/mm3 are factors that decrease the odds of virological failure.Keywords: retrospective, virological failure, antiretroviral therapy, children, Ethiopi

Gully rehabilitation in Southern Ethiopia : value and impacts for farmers

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Geospatial variations and determinants of contraceptive utilization among married reproductive age women in Ethiopia: spatial and multilevel analysis of Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey, 2019

IntroductionContraception is the most effective method of preventing unwanted pregnancies and their associated disadvantages. It is critical to recognize one's desire to utilize contraceptives before drafting and implementing a good family planning program, especially in developing nations like Ethiopia.ObjectiveThis study aimed to identify the geospatial variations and determinants affecting the utilization of contraceptives among married reproductive age women in Ethiopia.MethodThis study was based on an extensive national survey, the Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey. A total weighted sample of 5,743 married reproductive-age women was included. Because of the hierarchical nature of the DHS data, a spatial analysis multilevel logistic regression model was used to study individual and community-level factors that may influence contraceptives. The Bernoulli model was used by applying Kulldorff methods using the SaTScan software to analyze the purely spatial clusters of contraceptive usage. ArcGIS version 10.3 was used to visualize the distribution of contraceptives. A 95% confidence interval and a p-value of less than 0.05 were used to declare statistical significance.ResultThe overall utilization of contraceptives was discovered at 41.25% (39.98, 42.53). Participants age range of 25–34 years [AOR = 0.80, CI: (0.66, 0.96,)] and 35–49 years [AOR = 0.50, CI 95%:(0.66, 0.96)] times less likely to use contraceptives than 15–24 years old respectively. Having primary [AOR = 1.47, CI 95%: (1.25, 1.73)], secondary [AOR = 1.42, CI 95%: (1.09, 1.83)] and higher education level [AOR = 1.92, CI 95%: (1.41, 2.60)], middle wealth [AOR = 1.48, CI 95%: (1.14, 1.90)], richer [AOR = 1.41, CI 95%: (1.07, 1.86)] and richest [AOR = 2.17, CI 95%: (1.52, 3.11)], having 1–4 ANC follow up have [AOR = 1.60, CI 95%: (1.26, 2.03)], gave birth at age of 35–44 [AOR = 0.29, CI 95%: (0.22, 0.37)], having 3–5 children [AOR = 1.26, CI 95%: (1.03, 1.52)], being from community of high level women education [AOR = 1.61, CI 95%: (1.21, 2.15)] were associated positively. Participants from Amhara, Oromia, Benishangul and SNNPR regions have revealed [AOR = 2.40, CI 95%: (1.53, 3.77)], [AOR = 1.64, CI 95%: (1.05, 2.56)], [AOR = 1.62, CI 95%: (1.01, 2.62)] and [AOR = 2.04, CI 95: (1.31, 3.19)], in contrast, Somali and Afar regions have shown [AOR = 011, CI 95%: (0.05, 0.22)] and [AOR = 0.31, CI 95%: (0.18, 0.54)] times less likely to use contraceptive services than Tigray Region respectively. The spatial analysis of contraceptive usage discovered that the northern, central and southern parts of the country had higher utilization of contraceptives than the eastern and northeastern of the country.ConclusionThe study revealed that contraceptive usage among married women is comparatively low, with wide regional variation. Raising awareness among mothers about the importance of antenatal care and assisting mothers who are financially disadvantaged or do not have access to health facilities will aid in providing better family planning services. Improving contraceptive information dissemination at community and regional levels is key to averting potential barriers

Myopia and its associated factors among pregnant women at health institutions in Gondar District, Northwest Ethiopia: A multi-center cross-sectional study

BackgroundMyopia is the most common form of uncorrected refractive error with a growing burden worldwide. It is the principal complaint of most women during pregnancy. Although myopia has led to several consequences across the standard life of pregnant women, there is no previous study in Ethiopia regarding this topic. Thus, this study determined the prevalence of myopia and identifies its associated factors among pregnant women attending antenatal care units at governmental health institutions in Gondar City District, Northwest Ethiopia.MethodsAn institution-based cross-sectional study design was conducted from 08 February to 08 April 2021. From the selected health centres, study participants were recruited by systematic random sampling technique. A pre-tested, structured-interviewer-administered questionnaire consisting of socio-demographic variables, obstetric and clinical-related variables was used to collect the required data. Non-cycloplegic refraction was performed using trial lenses, trial frames, and retinoscopy in a semi-dark examination room. EpiData 3 and STATA 14 were used for data entry and statistical analysis respectively. Both bivariable and multivariable binary logistic regression analyses were executed to identify associated factors of myopia. Variables with a p-value ≤0.05 in the multivariable logistic regression analysis were declared as statistically significant with myopia. Model fitness was checked by Hosmer and Lemeshow goodness of test (at p > 0.05)ResultsA total of four-hundred and twenty-three pregnant women participated with a 100% response rate in this study. The overall prevalence of myopia among pregnant women was 26.48% (95% CI: 22.48–30.91). Eighty-Eight (20.81%) and Eighty-Four (19.85%) of the study participants had myopia in their right and left eyes respectively. The prevalence of myopia was significantly associated with age (AOR = 1.17; 95% CI: 1.09–1.28), the third trimester of gestation (AOR = 2.05, 95% CI: 1.08–3.90), multi & grand multipara (AOR = 3.15; 95% CI: 1.59–6.25), and history of contraceptive use (AOR = 3.30; 95% CI: 1. 50–7.28).ConclusionThe finding of our study shows that there is a higher prevalence of myopia among pregnant women in our study area. Further prospective analytical studies regarding visual systems among pregnant women, particularly as a result of pregnancy, are strongly recommended

First PCR Confirmed anthrax outbreaks in Ethiopia-Amhara region, 2018-2019.

BackgroundAnthrax is a disease that affects humans and animals. In Ethiopia, anthrax is a reportable disease and assumed to be endemic, although laboratory confirmation has not been routinely performed until recently. We describe the findings from the investigation of two outbreaks in Amhara region.MethodsFollowing reports of suspected outbreaks in Wag Hamra zone (Outbreak 1) and South Gondar zone (Outbreak 2), multi-sectoral teams involving both animal and public health officials were deployed to investigate and establish control programs. A suspect case was defined as: sudden death with rapid bloating or bleeding from orifice(s) with unclotted blood (animals); and signs compatible with cutaneous, ingestion, or inhalation anthrax ≤7 days after exposure to a suspect animal (humans). Suspect human cases were interviewed using a standard questionnaire. Samples were collected from humans with suspected anthrax (Outbreak 1 and Outbreak 2) as well as dried meat of suspect animal cases (Outbreak 2). A case was confirmed if a positive test was returned using real-time polymerase chain reaction (qPCR).ResultsIn Outbreak 1, a total of 49 cows died due to suspected anthrax and 22 humans developed symptoms consistent with cutaneous anthrax (40% attack rate), two of whom died due to suspected ingestion anthrax. Three people were confirmed to have anthrax by qPCR. In Outbreak 2, anthrax was suspected to have caused the deaths of two livestock animals and one human. Subsequent investigation revealed 18 suspected cases of cutaneous anthrax in humans (27% attack rate). None of the 12 human samples collected tested positive, however, a swab taken from the dried meat of one animal case (goat) was positive by qPCR.ConclusionWe report the first qPCR-confirmed outbreaks of anthrax in Ethiopia. Both outbreaks were controlled through active case finding, carcass management, ring vaccination of livestock, training of health professionals and outreach with livestock owners. Human and animal health authorities should work together using a One Health approach to improve case reporting and vaccine coverage

Global, regional, and national under-5 mortality, adult mortality, age-specific mortality, and life expectancy, 1970–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Detailed assessments of mortality patterns, particularly age-specific mortality, represent a crucial input that enables health systems to target interventions to specific populations. Understanding how all-cause mortality has changed with respect to development status can identify exemplars for best practice. To accomplish this, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) estimated age-specific and sex-specific all-cause mortality between 1970 and 2016 for 195 countries and territories and at the subnational level for the five countries with a population greater than 200 million in 2016. METHODS: We have evaluated how well civil registration systems captured deaths using a set of demographic methods called death distribution methods for adults and from consideration of survey and census data for children younger than 5 years. We generated an overall assessment of completeness of registration of deaths by dividing registered deaths in each location-year by our estimate of all-age deaths generated from our overall estimation process. For 163 locations, including subnational units in countries with a population greater than 200 million with complete vital registration (VR) systems, our estimates were largely driven by the observed data, with corrections for small fluctuations in numbers and estimation for recent years where there were lags in data reporting (lags were variable by location, generally between 1 year and 6 years). For other locations, we took advantage of different data sources available to measure under-5 mortality rates (U5MR) using complete birth histories, summary birth histories, and incomplete VR with adjustments; we measured adult mortality rate (the probability of death in individuals aged 15-60 years) using adjusted incomplete VR, sibling histories, and household death recall. We used the U5MR and adult mortality rate, together with crude death rate due to HIV in the GBD model life table system, to estimate age-specific and sex-specific death rates for each location-year. Using various international databases, we identified fatal discontinuities, which we defined as increases in the death rate of more than one death per million, resulting from conflict and terrorism, natural disasters, major transport or technological accidents, and a subset of epidemic infectious diseases; these were added to estimates in the relevant years. In 47 countries with an identified peak adult prevalence for HIV/AIDS of more than 0·5% and where VR systems were less than 65% complete, we informed our estimates of age-sex-specific mortality using the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP)-Spectrum model fitted to national HIV/AIDS prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance systems. We estimated stillbirths, early neonatal, late neonatal, and childhood mortality using both survey and VR data in spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression models. We estimated abridged life tables for all location-years using age-specific death rates. We grouped locations into development quintiles based on the Socio-demographic Index (SDI) and analysed mortality trends by quintile. Using spline regression, we estimated the expected mortality rate for each age-sex group as a function of SDI. We identified countries with higher life expectancy than expected by comparing observed life expectancy to anticipated life expectancy on the basis of development status alone. FINDINGS: Completeness in the registration of deaths increased from 28% in 1970 to a peak of 45% in 2013; completeness was lower after 2013 because of lags in reporting. Total deaths in children younger than 5 years decreased from 1970 to 2016, and slower decreases occurred at ages 5-24 years. By contrast, numbers of adult deaths increased in each 5-year age bracket above the age of 25 years. The distribution of annualised rates of change in age-specific mortality rate differed over the period 2000 to 2016 compared with earlier decades: increasing annualised rates of change were less frequent, although rising annualised rates of change still occurred in some locations, particularly for adolescent and younger adult age groups. Rates of stillbirths and under-5 mortality both decreased globally from 1970. Evidence for global convergence of death rates was mixed; although the absolute difference between age-standardised death rates narrowed between countries at the lowest and highest levels of SDI, the ratio of these death rates-a measure of relative inequality-increased slightly. There was a strong shift between 1970 and 2016 toward higher life expectancy, most noticeably at higher levels of SDI. Among countries with populations greater than 1 million in 2016, life expectancy at birth was highest for women in Japan, at 86·9 years (95% UI 86·7-87·2), and for men in Singapore, at 81·3 years (78·8-83·7) in 2016. Male life expectancy was generally lower than female life expectancy between 1970 and 2016, an

Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990–2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Global burden and strength of evidence for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and 811 subnational locations, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

Background: Understanding the health consequences associated with exposure to risk factors is necessary to inform public health policy and practice. To systematically quantify the contributions of risk factor exposures to specific health outcomes, the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 aims to provide comprehensive estimates of exposure levels, relative health risks, and attributable burden of disease for 88 risk factors in 204 countries and territories and 811 subnational locations, from 1990 to 2021. Methods: The GBD 2021 risk factor analysis used data from 54 561 total distinct sources to produce epidemiological estimates for 88 risk factors and their associated health outcomes for a total of 631 risk–outcome pairs. Pairs were included on the basis of data-driven determination of a risk–outcome association. Age-sex-location-year-specific estimates were generated at global, regional, and national levels. Our approach followed the comparative risk assessment framework predicated on a causal web of hierarchically organised, potentially combinative, modifiable risks. Relative risks (RRs) of a given outcome occurring as a function of risk factor exposure were estimated separately for each risk–outcome pair, and summary exposure values (SEVs), representing risk-weighted exposure prevalence, and theoretical minimum risk exposure levels (TMRELs) were estimated for each risk factor. These estimates were used to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF; ie, the proportional change in health risk that would occur if exposure to a risk factor were reduced to the TMREL). The product of PAFs and disease burden associated with a given outcome, measured in disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), yielded measures of attributable burden (ie, the proportion of total disease burden attributable to a particular risk factor or combination of risk factors). Adjustments for mediation were applied to account for relationships involving risk factors that act indirectly on outcomes via intermediate risks. Attributable burden estimates were stratified by Socio-demographic Index (SDI) quintile and presented as counts, age-standardised rates, and rankings. To complement estimates of RR and attributable burden, newly developed burden of proof risk function (BPRF) methods were applied to yield supplementary, conservative interpretations of risk–outcome associations based on the consistency of underlying evidence, accounting for unexplained heterogeneity between input data from different studies. Estimates reported represent the mean value across 500 draws from the estimate's distribution, with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) calculated as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentile values across the draws. Findings: Among the specific risk factors analysed for this study, particulate matter air pollution was the leading contributor to the global disease burden in 2021, contributing 8·0% (95% UI 6·7–9·4) of total DALYs, followed by high systolic blood pressure (SBP; 7·8% [6·4–9·2]), smoking (5·7% [4·7–6·8]), low birthweight and short gestation (5·6% [4·8–6·3]), and high fasting plasma glucose (FPG; 5·4% [4·8–6·0]). For younger demographics (ie, those aged 0–4 years and 5–14 years), risks such as low birthweight and short gestation and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing (WaSH) were among the leading risk factors, while for older age groups, metabolic risks such as high SBP, high body-mass index (BMI), high FPG, and high LDL cholesterol had a greater impact. From 2000 to 2021, there was an observable shift in global health challenges, marked by a decline in the number of all-age DALYs broadly attributable to behavioural risks (decrease of 20·7% [13·9–27·7]) and environmental and occupational risks (decrease of 22·0% [15·5–28·8]), coupled with a 49·4% (42·3–56·9) increase in DALYs attributable to metabolic risks, all reflecting ageing populations and changing lifestyles on a global scale. Age-standardised global DALY rates attributable to high BMI and high FPG rose considerably (15·7% [9·9–21·7] for high BMI and 7·9% [3·3–12·9] for high FPG) over this period, with exposure to these risks increasing annually at rates of 1·8% (1·6–1·9) for high BMI and 1·3% (1·1–1·5) for high FPG. By contrast, the global risk-attributable burden and exposure to many other risk factors declined, notably for risks such as child growth failure and unsafe water source, with age-standardised attributable DALYs decreasing by 71·5% (64·4–78·8) for child growth failure and 66·3% (60·2–72·0) for unsafe water source. We separated risk factors into three groups according to trajectory over time: those with a decreasing attributable burden, due largely to declining risk exposure (eg, diet high in trans-fat and household air pollution) but also to proportionally smaller child and youth populations (eg, child and maternal malnutrition); those for which the burden increased moderately in spite of declining risk exposure, due largely to population ageing (eg, smoking); and those for which the burden increased considerably due to both increasing risk exposure and population ageing (eg, ambient particulate matter air pollution, high BMI, high FPG, and high SBP). Interpretation: Substantial progress has been made in reducing the global disease burden attributable to a range of risk factors, particularly those related to maternal and child health, WaSH, and household air pollution. Maintaining efforts to minimise the impact of these risk factors, especially in low SDI locations, is necessary to sustain progress. Successes in moderating the smoking-related burden by reducing risk exposure highlight the need to advance policies that reduce exposure to other leading risk factors such as ambient particulate matter air pollution and high SBP. Troubling increases in high FPG, high BMI, and other risk factors related to obesity and metabolic syndrome indicate an urgent need to identify and implement interventions

Global, regional, and national burden of disorders affecting the nervous system, 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

BACKGROUND: Disorders affecting the nervous system are diverse and include neurodevelopmental disorders, late-life neurodegeneration, and newly emergent conditions, such as cognitive impairment following COVID-19. Previous publications from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor Study estimated the burden of 15 neurological conditions in 2015 and 2016, but these analyses did not include neurodevelopmental disorders, as defined by the International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-11, or a subset of cases of congenital, neonatal, and infectious conditions that cause neurological damage. Here, we estimate nervous system health loss caused by 37 unique conditions and their associated risk factors globally, regionally, and nationally from 1990 to 2021. METHODS: We estimated mortality, prevalence, years lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), with corresponding 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs), by age and sex in 204 countries and territories, from 1990 to 2021. We included morbidity and deaths due to neurological conditions, for which health loss is directly due to damage to the CNS or peripheral nervous system. We also isolated neurological health loss from conditions for which nervous system morbidity is a consequence, but not the primary feature, including a subset of congenital conditions (ie, chromosomal anomalies and congenital birth defects), neonatal conditions (ie, jaundice, preterm birth, and sepsis), infectious diseases (ie, COVID-19, cystic echinococcosis, malaria, syphilis, and Zika virus disease), and diabetic neuropathy. By conducting a sequela-level analysis of the health outcomes for these conditions, only cases where nervous system damage occurred were included, and YLDs were recalculated to isolate the non-fatal burden directly attributable to nervous system health loss. A comorbidity correction was used to calculate total prevalence of all conditions that affect the nervous system combined. FINDINGS: Globally, the 37 conditions affecting the nervous system were collectively ranked as the leading group cause of DALYs in 2021 (443 million, 95% UI 378–521), affecting 3·40 billion (3·20–3·62) individuals (43·1%, 40·5–45·9 of the global population); global DALY counts attributed to these conditions increased by 18·2% (8·7–26·7) between 1990 and 2021. Age-standardised rates of deaths per 100 000 people attributed to these conditions decreased from 1990 to 2021 by 33·6% (27·6–38·8), and age-standardised rates of DALYs attributed to these conditions decreased by 27·0% (21·5–32·4). Age-standardised prevalence was almost stable, with a change of 1·5% (0·7–2·4). The ten conditions with the highest age-standardised DALYs in 2021 were stroke, neonatal encephalopathy, migraine, Alzheimer's disease and other dementias, diabetic neuropathy, meningitis, epilepsy, neurological complications due to preterm birth, autism spectrum disorder, and nervous system cancer. INTERPRETATION: As the leading cause of overall disease burden in the world, with increasing global DALY counts, effective prevention, treatment, and rehabilitation strategies for disorders affecting the nervous system are needed