Agricultural pricing systems and transportation policy in Africa

When agricultural production is taxed, the system of producer prices, transport logistics, and decisions on investments in transport for exports must be considered together. Many African states raise revenue by taxing export crops. A common tool for this purpose is marketing boards. Marketing boards purchase crops at depots established near areas of cultivation, at prices that yield a profit to the board. The boards also arrange for processing and the transport of the product from depots to port. The cost of transport to the farmer, given the price offered for his crop at the depot, will affect his decision on production and on the use of his own transport resources. The author evaluates the benefits available from alternative uses of the instruments available to the marketing board. Returns to transport investments are largest under pan-territorial pricing, lower under optimal pricing, and the least under a pure export tax. The author also examines different patterns of depot location. Unless depots are densely spaced, farmers may deliver their crops to the depot nearest to them. The paper demonstrates the interdependence of agricultural pricing policy and marketing board logistics with transport use and the demand for transport investments.Economic Theory&Research,Markets and Market Access,Access to Markets,Banks&Banking Reform,Municipal Financial Management

Understanding disease control: influence of epidemiological and economic factors

We present a local spread model of disease transmission on a regular network and compare different control options ranging from treating the whole population to local control in a well-defined neighborhood of an infectious individual. Comparison is based on a total cost of epidemic, including cost of palliative treatment of ill individuals and preventive cost aimed at vaccination or culling of susceptible individuals. Disease is characterized by pre- symptomatic phase which makes detection and control difficult. Three general strategies emerge, global preventive treatment, local treatment within a neighborhood of certain size and only palliative treatment with no prevention. The choice between the strategies depends on relative costs of palliative and preventive treatment. The details of the local strategy and in particular the size of the optimal treatment neighborhood weakly depends on disease infectivity but strongly depends on other epidemiological factors. The required extend of prevention is proportional to the size of the infection neighborhood, but this relationship depends on time till detection and time till treatment in a non-nonlinear (power) law. In addition, we show that the optimal size of control neighborhood is highly sensitive to the relative cost, particularly for inefficient detection and control application. These results have important consequences for design of prevention strategies aiming at emerging diseases for which parameters are not known in advance

Validation of the MEDFICTS dietary questionnaire: A clinical tool to assess adherence to American Heart Association dietary fat intake guidelines

BACKGROUND: Dietary assessment tools are often too long, difficult to quantify, expensive to process, and largely used for research purposes. A rapid and accurate assessment of dietary fat intake is critically important in clinical decision-making regarding dietary advice for coronary risk reduction. We assessed the validity of the MEDFICTS (MF) questionnaire, a brief instrument developed to assess fat intake according to the American Heart Association (AHA) dietary "steps". METHODS: We surveyed 164 active-duty US Army personnel without known coronary artery disease at their intake interview for a primary prevention cardiac intervention trial using the Block food frequency (FFQ) and MF questionnaires. Both surveys were completed on the same intake visit and independently scored. Correlations between each tools' assessment of fat intake, the agreement in AHA step categorization of dietary quality with each tool, and the test characteristics of the MF using the FFQ as the gold standard were assessed. RESULTS: Subjects consumed a mean of 36.0 ± 13.0% of their total calories as fat, which included saturated fat consumption of 13.0 ± 0.4%. The majority of subjects (125/164; 76.2%) had a high fat (worse than AHA Step 1) diet. There were significant correlations between the MF and the FFQ for the intake of total fat (r = 0.52, P < 0.0001) and saturated fat (r = 0.52, P < 0.0001). Despite these modest correlations, the currently recommended MF cutpoints correctly identified only 29 of 125 (23.3%) high fat (worse than AHA Step 1) diets. Overall agreement for the AHA diet step between the FFQ and MF (using the previously proposed MF score cutoffs of 0–39 [AHA Step 2], 40–70 [Step 1], and >70 [high fat diet]) was negligible (kappa statistic = 0.036). The MF was accurate at the extremes of fat intake, but could not reliably identify the 3 AHA dietary classifications. Alternative MF cutpoints of <30 (Step 2), 30–50 (Step 1), and >50 (high fat diet) were highly sensitive (96%), but had low specificity (46%) for a high fat diet. ROC curve analysis identified that a MF score cutoff of 38 provided optimal sensitivity 75% and specificity 72%, and had modest agreement (kappa = 0.39, P < 0.001) with the FFQ for the identification of subjects with a high fat diet. CONCLUSIONS: The MEDFICTS questionnaire is most suitable as a tool to identify high fat diets, rather than discriminate AHA Step 1 and Step 2 diets. Currently recommended MEDFICTS cutpoints are too high, leading to overestimation of dietary quality. A cutpoint of 38 appears to be providing optimal identification of patients who do not meet AHA dietary guidelines for fat intake

The Effects of Sugars Intake and Frequency of Ingestion on Dental Caries Increment in a Three-year Longitudinal Study

A three-year longitudinal study was carried out with a group of children, initially aged 11-15, residing in non-fluoridated rural communities in south-central Michigan. This report analyzes the relation between caries increment and consumption of sugars from all sources to see if accepted relationships have changed with the caries decline in the United States. There were 499 children who provided three or more 24-hour dietary recall interviews, and who received dental examinations at baseline and after three years. Caries increment averaged 2.91 DMFS over the three years, with 81 % of new lesions on pit-and-fissure surfaces. Consumption of sugars from all sources averaged 156 g per day for males and 127 g per day for females, an average of 52 kg per person per year. Sugars constituted one-quarter of total caloric intake for both boys and girls, and the average number of eating occasions per day was 4.3. Children who consumed a higher proportion of their total energy intake as sugars had a higher increment of approximal caries, though there was little relation to pit-and-fissure caries. The average number of daily eating occasions was not related to caries increment, nor was the average number of sugary snacks (defined as foods with 15% or more of sugars) consumed between meals, but the average consumption of between-meal sugars was related to the approximal caries increment. When children were categorized by high caries increment compared with no caries increment, a tendency toward more frequent snacks was seen in the high-caries children. In an age of generally declining caries, it was concluded that higher average daily consumption of sugars, and higher between-meal consumption of sugars, was still a risk factor for children susceptible to approximal caries. Overall frequency of eating and frequency of ingestion of sugary foods between meals, however, were both poorly related to approximal caries increment. Pit-and-fissure caries could not be related to any aspect of sugars consumption.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/67206/2/10.1177_00220345880670111201.pd

Controlling epidemic spread by social distancing: Do it well or not at all

BACKGROUND: Existing epidemiological models have largely tended to neglect the impact of individual behaviour on the dynamics of diseases. However, awareness of the presence of illness can cause people to change their behaviour by, for example, staying at home and avoiding social contacts. Such changes can be used to control epidemics but they exact an economic cost. Our aim is to study the costs and benefits of using individual-based social distancing undertaken by healthy individuals as a form of control.METHODS: Our model is a standard SIR model superimposed on a spatial network, without and with addition of small-world interactions. Disease spread is controlled by allowing susceptible individuals to temporarily reduce their social contacts in response to the presence of infection within their local neighbourhood. We ascribe an economic cost to the loss of social contacts, and weigh this against the economic benefit gained by reducing the impact of the epidemic. We study the sensitivity of the results to two key parameters, the individuals' attitude to risk and the size of the awareness neighbourhood.RESULTS: Depending on the characteristics of the epidemic and on the relative economic importance of making contacts versus avoiding infection, the optimal control is one of two extremes: either to adopt a highly cautious control, thereby suppressing the epidemic quickly by drastically reducing contacts as soon as disease is detected; or else to forego control and allow the epidemic to run its course. The worst outcome arises when control is attempted, but not cautiously enough to cause the epidemic to be suppressed. The next main result comes from comparing the size of the neighbourhood of which individuals are aware to that of the neighbourhood within which transmission can occur. The control works best when these sizes match and is particularly ineffective when the awareness neighbourhood is smaller than the infection neighbourhood. The results are robust with respect to inclusion of long-range, small-world links which destroy the spatial structure, regardless of whether individuals can or cannot control them. However, addition of many non-local links eventually makes control ineffective.CONCLUSIONS: These results have implications for the design of control strategies using social distancing: a control that is too weak or based upon inaccurate knowledge, may give a worse outcome than doing nothing