Time series analysis for minority game simulations of financial markets

The minority game (MG) model introduced recently provides promising insights into the understanding of the evolution of prices, indices and rates in the financial markets. In this paper we perform a time series analysis of the model employing tools from statistics, dynamical systems theory and stochastic processes. Using benchmark systems and a financial index for comparison, several conclusions are obtained about the generating mechanism for this kind of evolut ion. The motion is deterministic, driven by occasional random external perturbation. When the interval between two successive perturbations is sufficiently large, one can find low dimensional chaos in this regime. However, the full motion of the MG model is found to be similar to that of the first differences of the SP500 index: stochastic, nonlinear and (unit root) stationary.Comment: LaTeX 2e (elsart), 17 pages, 3 EPS figures and 2 tables, accepted for publication in Physica

Relational Knowledge Extraction from Attribute-Value Learners

Bottom Clause Propositionalization (BCP) is a recent propositionalization method which allows fast relational learning. Propositional learners can use BCP to obtain accuracy results comparable with Inductive Logic Programming (ILP) learners. However, differently from ILP learners, what has been learned cannot normally be represented in first-order logic. In this paper, we propose an approach and introduce a novel algorithm for extraction of first-order rules from propositional rule learners, when dealing with data propositionalized with BCP. A theorem then shows that the extracted first-order rules are consistent with their propositional version. The algorithm was evaluated using the rule learner RIPPER, although it can be applied on any propositional rule learner. Initial results show that the accuracies of both RIPPER and the extracted first-order rules can be comparable to those obtained by Aleph (a traditional ILP system), but our approach is considerably faster (obtaining speed-ups of over an order of magnitude), generating a compact rule set with at least the same representation power as standard ILP learners

Unravelling the contributions of motor experience and conceptual knowledge in action perception: A training study

Prior knowledge affects how we perceive the world and the sensorimotor system actively guides our perception. An ongoing dispute regards the extent to which prior motor knowledge versus conceptual knowledge modulates the observation of others’ actions. Research indicates that motor experience increases motor activation during action perception. Other research, however, has shown that conceptual familiarity with actions also modulates motor activation, i.e., increased motor activation during observation of unfamiliar, compared to conceptually familiar, actions. To begin to disentangle motor from conceptual contributions to action perception, we uniquely combined motoric and conceptual interventions into one design. We experimentally manipulated participants’ experience with both motoric skills and conceptual knowledge, via motor training of kinematically challenging actions and contextual information about the action, respectively, in a week-long training session. Measurements of the effects on motor activity measured via electroencephalography (EEG) during pre- and post-training action observation were compared. We found distinct, non-interacting effects of both manipulations: Motor training increased motor activation, whereas additional conceptual knowledge decreased motor activation. The findings indicate that both factors influence action perception in a distinct and parallel manner. This research speaks to previously irreconcilable findings and provides novel insights about the distinct roles of motor and conceptual contributions to action perception

Religiosity, Secularism, and Social Health: A Research Note

This article is a research note addressing various theoretical and methodological issues in the measurement and analysis of religiosity and secularism and their relationship to quantifiable measures of social health in advanced and prosperous democracies. Particular attention is given to cross-national frameworks for studying religiosity and secularism as well as to the conceptualization and statistical analysis of these notions for research design. Various procedural suggestions regarding the use of comparative frameworks are presented to assist in the development and implementation of future studies gauging the impact of worldview commitments upon societal wellbeing