Predicting the emergence of drug-resistant HSV-2: new predictions

BACKGROUND: Mathematical models can be used to predict the emergence and transmission of antiviral resistance. Previously it has been predicted that high usage of antivirals (in immunocompetent populations) to treat Herpes Simplex Virus type 2 (HSV-2) would only lead to fairly low levels of antiviral resistance. The HSV-2 predictions were based upon the assumption that drug-resistant strains of HSV-2 would be less infectious than drug-sensitive strains but that the drug-resistant strains would not be impaired in their ability to reactivate. Recent data suggest that some drug-resistant strains of HSV-2 are likely to be impaired in their ability to reactivate. Objectives: (1) To predict the effect of a high usage of antivirals on the prevalence of drug-resistant HSV-2 under the assumption that drug-resistant strains will be less infectious than drug-sensitive strains of HSV-2 and also have an impaired ability to reactivate. (2) To compare predictions with previous published predictions. METHODS: We generated theoretical drug-resistant HSV-2 strains that were attenuated (in comparison with drug-sensitive strains) in both infectivity and ability to reactivate. We then used a transmission model to predict the emergence and transmission of drug-resistant HSV-2 in the immunocompetent population assuming a high usage of antivirals. RESULTS: Our predictions are an order of magnitude lower than previous predictions; we predict that even after 25 years of high antiviral usage only 5 out of 10,000 immunocompetent individuals will be shedding drug-resistant virus. Furthermore, after 25 years, 52 cases of HSV-2 would have been prevented for each prevalent case of drug-resistant HSV-2. CONCLUSIONS: The predicted levels of drug-resistant HSV-2 for the immunocompetent population are so low that it seems unlikely that cases of drug-resistant HSV-2 will be detected

Assessment of Disparities Associated with a Crisis Standards of Care Resource Allocation Algorithm for Patients in 2 US Hospitals during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Importance: Significant concern has been raised that crisis standards of care policies aimed at guiding resource allocation may be biased against people based on race/ethnicity. Objective: To evaluate whether unanticipated disparities by race or ethnicity arise from a single institution\u27s resource allocation policy. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cohort study included adults (aged ≥18 years) who were cared for on a coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) ward or in a monitored unit requiring invasive or noninvasive ventilation or high-flow nasal cannula between May 26 and July 14, 2020, at 2 academic hospitals in Miami, Florida. Exposures: Race (ie, White, Black, Asian, multiracial) and ethnicity (ie, non-Hispanic, Hispanic). Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was based on a resource allocation priority score (range, 1-8, with 1 indicating highest and 8 indicating lowest priority) that was assigned daily based on both estimated short-term (using Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score) and longer-term (using comorbidities) mortality. There were 2 coprimary outcomes: maximum and minimum score for each patient over all eligible patient-days. Standard summary statistics were used to describe the cohort, and multivariable Poisson regression was used to identify associations of race and ethnicity with each outcome. Results: The cohort consisted of 5613 patient-days of data from 1127 patients (median [interquartile range {IQR}] age, 62.7 [51.7-73.7]; 607 [53.9%] men). Of these, 711 (63.1%) were White patients, 323 (28.7%) were Black patients, 8 (0.7%) were Asian patients, and 31 (2.8%) were multiracial patients; 480 (42.6%) were non-Hispanic patients, and 611 (54.2%) were Hispanic patients. The median (IQR) maximum priority score for the cohort was 3 (1-4); the median (IQR) minimum score was 2 (1-3). After adjustment, there was no association of race with maximum priority score using White patients as the reference group (Black patients: incidence rate ratio [IRR], 1.00; 95% CI, 0.89-1.12; Asian patients: IRR, 0.95; 95% CI. 0.62-1.45; multiracial patients: IRR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.72-1.19) or of ethnicity using non-Hispanic patients as the reference group (Hispanic patients: IRR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.88-1.10); similarly, no association was found with minimum score for race, again with White patients as the reference group (Black patients: IRR, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.90-1.14; Asian patients: IRR, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.62-1.49; multiracial patients: IRR, 0.81; 95% CI, 0.61-1.07) or ethnicity, again with non-Hispanic patients as the reference group (Hispanic patients: IRR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.89-1.13). Conclusions and Relevance: In this cohort study of adult patients admitted to a COVID-19 unit at 2 US hospitals, there was no association of race or ethnicity with the priority score underpinning the resource allocation policy. Despite this finding, any policy to guide altered standards of care during a crisis should be monitored to ensure equitable distribution of resources

Differentiation of human multipotent dermal fibroblasts into islet-like cell clusters

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>We have previously obtained a clonal population of cells from human foreskin that is able to differentiate into mesodermal, ectodermal and endodermal progenies. It is of great interest to know whether these cells could be further differentiated into functional insulin-producing cells.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Sixty-one single-cell-derived dermal fibroblast clones were established from human foreskin by limiting dilution culture. Of these, two clones could be differentiated into neuron-, adipocyte- or hepatocyte-like cells under certain culture conditions. In addition, those two clones were able to differentiate into islet-like clusters under pancreatic induction. Insulin, glucagon and somatostatin were detectable at the mRNA and protein levels after induction. Moreover, the islet-like clusters could release insulin in response to glucose in vitro.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This is the first study to demonstrate that dermal fibroblasts can differentiate into insulin-producing cells without genetic manipulation. This may offer a safer cell source for future stem cell-based therapies.</p

Epithelial-Mesenchymal Transition in Cells Expanded In Vitro from Lineage-Traced Adult Human Pancreatic Beta Cells

BACKGROUND: In-vitro expansion of functional beta cells from adult human islets is an attractive approach for generating an abundant source of cells for beta-cell replacement therapy of diabetes. Using genetic cell-lineage tracing we have recently shown that beta cells cultured from adult human islets undergo rapid dedifferentiation and proliferate for up to 16 population doublings. These cells have raised interest as potential candidates for redifferentiation into functional insulin-producing cells. Previous work has associated dedifferentiation of cultured epithelial cells with epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT), and suggested that EMT generates cells with stem cell properties. Here we investigated the occurrence of EMT in these cultures and assessed their stem cell potential. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using cell-lineage tracing we provide direct evidence for occurrence of EMT in cells originating from beta cells in cultures of adult human islet cells. These cells express multiple mesenchymal markers, as well as markers associated with mesenchymal stem cells (MSC). However, we do not find evidence for the ability of such cells, nor of cells in these cultures derived from a non-beta-cell origin, to significantly differentiate into mesodermal cell types. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings constitute the first demonstration based on genetic lineage-tracing of EMT in cultured adult primary human cells, and show that EMT does not induce multipotency in cells derived from human beta cells

Factors Associated With Death in Critically Ill Patients With Coronavirus Disease 2019 in the US

Importance: The US is currently an epicenter of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, yet few national data are available on patient characteristics, treatment, and outcomes of critical illness from COVID-19. Objectives: To assess factors associated with death and to examine interhospital variation in treatment and outcomes for patients with COVID-19. Design, Setting, and Participants: This multicenter cohort study assessed 2215 adults with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 who were admitted to intensive care units (ICUs) at 65 hospitals across the US from March 4 to April 4, 2020. Exposures: Patient-level data, including demographics, comorbidities, and organ dysfunction, and hospital characteristics, including number of ICU beds. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was 28-day in-hospital mortality. Multilevel logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with death and to examine interhospital variation in treatment and outcomes. Results: A total of 2215 patients (mean [SD] age, 60.5 [14.5] years; 1436 [64.8%] male; 1738 [78.5%] with at least 1 chronic comorbidity) were included in the study. At 28 days after ICU admission, 784 patients (35.4%) had died, 824 (37.2%) were discharged, and 607 (27.4%) remained hospitalized. At the end of study follow-up (median, 16 days; interquartile range, 8-28 days), 875 patients (39.5%) had died, 1203 (54.3%) were discharged, and 137 (6.2%) remained hospitalized. Factors independently associated with death included older age (≥80 vs <40 years of age: odds ratio [OR], 11.15; 95% CI, 6.19-20.06), male sex (OR, 1.50; 95% CI, 1.19-1.90), higher body mass index (≥40 vs <25: OR, 1.51; 95% CI, 1.01-2.25), coronary artery disease (OR, 1.47; 95% CI, 1.07-2.02), active cancer (OR, 2.15; 95% CI, 1.35-3.43), and the presence of hypoxemia (Pao2:Fio2<100 vs ≥300 mm Hg: OR, 2.94; 95% CI, 2.11-4.08), liver dysfunction (liver Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score of 2 vs 0: OR, 2.61; 95% CI, 1.30–5.25), and kidney dysfunction (renal Sequential Organ Failure Assessment score of 4 vs 0: OR, 2.43; 95% CI, 1.46–4.05) at ICU admission. Patients admitted to hospitals with fewer ICU beds had a higher risk of death (<50 vs ≥100 ICU beds: OR, 3.28; 95% CI, 2.16-4.99). Hospitals varied considerably in the risk-adjusted proportion of patients who died (range, 6.6%-80.8%) and in the percentage of patients who received hydroxychloroquine, tocilizumab, and other treatments and supportive therapies. Conclusions and Relevance: This study identified demographic, clinical, and hospital-level risk factors that may be associated with death in critically ill patients with COVID-19 and can facilitate the identification of medications and supportive therapies to improve outcomes.Dr. Gupta reported receiving grants from the National Institutes of Health (NIH) and is a scientific coordinator for GlaxoSmithKline’s ASCEND (Anemia Studies in Chronic Kidney Disease: Erythropoiesis via a Novel Prolyl Hydroxylase Inhibitor Daprodustat) trial. Dr. Chan reported receiving grants from the Renal Research Institute outside the submitted work. Dr. Mathews reported receiving grants from the NIH/National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI) during the conduct of the study and serves on the steering committee for the BREATHE trial (Breathing Retraining for Asthma–Trial of Home Exercises), funded by Roivant/Kinevant Sciences. Dr. Melamed reported receiving honoraria from the American Board of Internal Medicine and Icon Medical Consulting. Dr. Reiser reported receiving personal fees from Biomarin, TRISAQ, Thermo BCT, Astellas, Massachusetts General Hospital, Genentech, UptoDate, Merck, Inceptionsci, GLG, and Clearview and grants from the NIH and Nephcure outside the submitted work. Dr. Srivastava reported receiving personal fees from Horizon Pharma PLC, AstraZeneca, and CVS Caremark outside the submitted work. Dr. Vijayan reported receiving personal fees from NxStage, Boeringer Ingelheim, and Sanofi outside the submitted work. Dr. Velez reported receiving personal fees from Mallinckrodt Pharmaceuticals, Retrophin, and Otsuka Pharmaceuticals outside the submitted work. Dr. Shaefi reported receiving grants from the NIH/National Institute on Aging and NIH/National Institute of General Medical Sciences outside the submitted work. Dr. Admon reported receiving grants from the NIH/NHLBI during the conduct of the study. Dr. Donnelly reported receiving grants from the NIH/NHLBI during the conduct of the study and personal fees from the American College of Emergency Physicians/Annals of Emergency Medicine outside the submitted work. Dr. Hernán reported receiving grants from the NIH during the conduct of the study. Dr. Semler reported receiving grants from the NIH/NHLBI during the conduct of the study. No other disclosures were reported