Advertising and the evolution of market structure in the US car industry

This paper focuses on a single simple stylized fact which stands out from the post-war history of the US car industry, namely that industry concentration fell just at the same time as industry advertising expenditures rose sharply. Since both events were almost certainly caused by the entry and market penetration of (largely) foreign owned car producers, this stylized fact raises interesting questions about whether – and if so, how – advertising affects entry. We use a model of consumer switching behaviour to help interpret the facts. The model predicts a simple linear association between market and advertising shares (which we observe fairly clearly at two different levels of aggregation in the data), and provides the basis for arguing that advertising can facilitate entry, but only for finite periods of time

Business experience and start-up size: buying more lottery tickets next time around?

This paper explores the determinants of start-up size by focusing on a cohort of 6247 businesses that started trading in 2004, using a unique dataset on customer records at Barclays Bank. Quantile regressions show that prior business experience is significantly related with start-up size, as are a number of other variables such as age, education and bank account activity. Quantile treatment effects (QTE) estimates show similar results, with the effect of business experience on (log) start-up size being roughly constant across the quantiles. Prior personal business experience leads to an increase in expected start-up size of about 50%. Instrumental variable QTE estimates are even higher, although there are concerns about the validity of the instrument

Innovation and growth in the UK pharmaceuticals: the case of product and marketing introductions

New drug introductions are key to growth for pharmaceutical firms. However, not all innovations are the same and they may have differential effects that vary by firm size. We use quarterly sales data on UK pharmaceuticals in a dynamic panel model to estimate the impact of product (new drugs) and marketing (additional pack varieties) innovations within a therapeutic class on a firm’s business unit growth. We find that product innovations lead to substantial growth in both the short and long run, whereas a new pack variety only produces short-term effects. The strategies are substitutes but the marginal effects are larger for product innovations relative to additional packs, and the effects are larger for smaller business units. Nonetheless, pack introductions offer a viable short-term growth strategy, especially for small- and medium-sized businesses