1,136 research outputs found
Beyond Pax Americana: US strategy after the Arab Spring
Ever since the United States became a global power it seeked to preserve its hegemony in the strategically vital regions, including the Middle East. In order to secure regional hegemony in the region the United States has historically articulated three main strategic objectives: maintaining strong alliance relationships, limiting the influence of adversaries, and preserving a regional order. However, according to the thesis of this article, since the war on terrorism began, in the wake of the terror attacks of September 11, 2001, some of the major strategic decisions taken by the United States, including its war in Iraq, the containment of Iran, its unconditional support for Israel, and incoherent policies regarding post-Arab-Spring Egypt and Syria undermined the above mentioned strategic objectives. In relation to these strategic setbacks and in light of the enormous costs the United States had to bear in recent years in connection to its strategy, Donald Trump campaigned for less American presence in the region. However, some structural components of US engagement towards the region and some enduring strategic interests suggest that there will not be any large scale disengagement from the Middle East
A novel method of generating tunable underlying network topologies for social simulation
We propose a method of generating different scale-free networks, which has
several input parameters in order to adjust the structure, so that they can
serve as a basis for computer simulation of real-world phenomena. The
topological structure of these networks was studied to determine what kind of
networks can be produced and how can we give the appropriate values of
parameters to get a desired structure.Comment: Originally presented at the 2013 IEEE 4th International Conference on
Cognitive Infocommunications (CogInfoCom
HosszĂş távĂş munkakĂnálat, tĹ‘kekĂnálat Ă©s makrogazdasági hatásaik = Long run labor supply, capital supply and their macroeconomic effects
A dolgozatot alkotĂł három rĂ©sz a hosszĂş távĂş tĹ‘ke- Ă©s munkakĂnálatot meghatározĂł tĂ©nyezĹ‘kkel foglalkozik, illetve azok további makroökonĂłmiai hatásaival. Közös az is a tanulmányokban, hogy tĂ©nyezĹ‘kĂnálat magyarázatában
a gazdasági szereplĹ‘k heterogenitására Ă©pĂt. A három fejezet megközelĂtĂ©se azonban eltĂ©r egymástĂłl. A második fejezetben egy Ăşj elmĂ©leti ágensalapĂş modellt szimulálunk a tĹ‘kekĂnálat elemzĂ©sĂ©re, a modell azonban inkább számpĂ©ldakĂ©nt szolgál, nincs kalibrálva egyetlen valĂłs gazdaságra sem. Ezzel szemben a harmadik fejezetben alkalmazott Ă©letciklus-modell, Ă©s a negyedik fejezet egyĂĽtt Ă©lĹ‘ korosztályokat tartalmazĂł modellje jĂłl ismert modellezĂ©si hagyományok alkalmazása, Ă©s a magyar gazdaságra kalibrált modellek a magyar nyugdĂjrendszer Ă©s demográfia hatását vizsgálja
Multiplicity Dependence of the Jet Structures in pp Collisions at LHC Energies
We study the event multiplicity dependence of the jet structure in pp
collisions. We present evidence for jet shape modification due to multi-parton
interactions using PYTHIA and HIJING++ Monte Carlo (MC) event generators as an
input to our analysis. We introduce a characteristic jet size measure which is
independent of the choice of the simulation parameters, parton distribution
functions, jet reconstruction algorithms and even of the presence or absence of
multi-parton interactions. We also investigate heavy-flavor jets and show the
sensitivity of the multiplicity-differential jet structure to flavor-dependent
fragmentation.Comment: Presented at Hot Quarks 2018 -- Workshop for young scientists on the
physics of ultrarelativistic nucleus-nucleus collisions, Texel, The
Netherlands, September 7-14 2018. Submitted to MDPI Proceeding
Parametrikus nyugdĂjreformok Ă©s Ă©letciklus-munkakĂnálat (Parametric pension reforms and life-cycle labour supply)
A társadalombiztosĂtási nyugdĂjrendszer finanszĂrozása pusztán a demográfiai folyamatok
következtében is jelentős terhet ró majd a költségvetésére, amin a különböző
parametrikus Ă©s paradigmatikus nyugdĂjreformok enyhĂthetnek. A reformok
azonban hosszĂş távon olyan viselkedĂ©si, munkakĂnálati reakciĂłkat válthatnak ki,
amelyek alapvetően változtatják meg a költségvetési hatásokat. Az 1999 és 2009
között Magyarországon megfigyelhetĹ‘ átlagos munka- Ă©s nyugdĂjkorprofilok bemutatása
után arra tettĂĽnk kĂsĂ©rletet, hogy mikroökonĂłmiai alapon határozzuk
meg nĂ©hány alapvetĹ‘ parametrikus nyugdĂjreformnak a fĂ©rfiak Ă©letciklus-munkakĂnálatára
gyakorolt hatását. A modell paramĂ©tereit a magyar gazdaság 1999 Ă©s 2009 közötti jellemzĹ‘inek megfelelĹ‘en kalibráltuk. EredmĂ©nyeink szerint a helyettesĂtĂ©si ráta csökkentĂ©se, a nyugdĂjkorhatár emelĂ©se Ă©s a svájci indexálás árindexálásra cserĂ©lĂ©se összessĂ©gĂ©ben számottevĹ‘en növeli az egyes kĂ©pzettsĂ©gi csoportok munkakĂnálatát, s a fiatalabb korosztályok javára csoportosĂtja át az Ă©letciklus-munkakĂnálatot, mĂg a nyugdĂj kiszámĂtásához figyelembe vett Ă©vek számának megváltoztatása nem hoz jelentĹ‘s aggregált hatást, Ă©s nem jár a munkakĂnálat korcsoportok közötti átcsoportosĂtásával. ____ Financing the social-security pension system will weigh heavily on the government budget in developed countries, merely through the projected demographic processes. The burden could be eased by various parametric and paradigmatic pension reforms, but in the long run such reforms may trigger behavioural, labour-supply responses, which may alter the budgetary effects fundamentally. Having described the average work and pension profiles in Hungary between 1999 and 2009, the authors use a microeconomic approach in an attempt to assess the effect of certain parametric pension reforms on the life-cycle labour supply of males. The parameters for the model were calibrated for the characteristics of the Hungarian economy. The results show that decreasing the replacement rate, increasing the retirement age and replacing Swiss indexation of pensions by price indexation cause a considerable increase in the labour supply of all education-level groups, whereas changing the number of years considered in computing pensions does not have a significant aggregate effect. While introducing price indexation increases the labour supply of all cohorts by the same amount, the other reforms reallocate the life-cycle labour supply, mainly towards younger age-groups
MegtakarĂtási tĂpusok - egy adaptĂv-evolĂşciĂłs megközelĂtĂ©s = Types of saving - an adaptive-evolutionary approach
A közgazdaságtanban az ágensalapĂş modellezĂ©s egyik alkalmazási terĂĽlete a makro ökonĂłmia. Ebben a tanulmányban nĂ©hány nĂ©pszerű megtakarĂtási szabály lĂ©tĂ©t feltĂ©telezve adaptĂv-evolĂşciĂłs megközelĂtĂ©sben endogĂ©n mĂłdon prĂłbálunk következtetni e szabályok relatĂv Ă©letkĂ©pessĂ©gĂ©re. Három kĂĽlönbözĹ‘ tĂpusĂş ágenst vezetĂĽnk be: egy prudens, egy rövidlátĂł Ă©s egy, a permanensjövedelem-elmĂ©letnek megfelelĹ‘en működĹ‘t. RendkĂvĂĽl erĹ‘s szelekciĂłs nyomás mellett a prudens tĂpus egyĂ©rtelműen kiszorĂtja a másik kettĹ‘t. A második legĂ©letkĂ©pesebbnek a rövidlátĂł tĂpus tűnik, de már közepes szelekciĂłs nyomásnál sem tűnik el egyik tĂpus sem. Szokásos tĹ‘kehatĂ©konyság mellett a prudens tĂpus tĂşlzott beruházási tendenciát visz a gazdaságba, Ă©s a gazdaság az aranykori megtakarĂtási rátánál magasabbat Ă©r el. A hitelkorlátok oldása mĂ©g nagyobb mĂ©rtĂ©kű tĂşlzott beruházáshoz vezethet, a hitelek mennyisĂ©gĂ©nek növekedĂ©se mellett a tĹ‘ketulajdonosok mintegy "kizsákmányoltatják" magukat azokkal, akiknek nincs tĹ‘kejövedelmĂĽk. A hosszĂş távĂş átlagos fogyasztás szempontjábĂłl a három tĂpus kiegyensĂşlyozott aránya adja a legjobb eredmĂ©nyt, ugyanakkor ez jĂłval nagyobb ingadozással jár, mint amikor csak prudens tĂpusĂş háztartások lĂ©teznek. ____ Agent-based modelling techniques have been employed for some time in macroeconomics. This paper tests some popular saving rules in an adaptive-evolutionary context of looking at their relative survival values. The three types are prudent, short-sighted, and responsive to the permanent-income hypothesis. It is found that where selection pressure is very high, only the prudent type persists. The second most resilient seems to be the short-sighted type, but all three coexist even at medium levels of selection pressure. When the efficiency of capital approaches the level usually assumed in macroeconomics, the prudent type drives the economy towards excessive accumulation of capital, i. e. a long-term savings rate that exceeds the golden rule. If credit constraints are relaxed, this tendency strengthens as credit grows and capital-owners seem to allow themselves to be exploited" by workers. From the angle of average consumption, the best outcome is obtained from a random distribution of types, although this is accompanied by higher volatility
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