Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market

The sharp decline in the performance of international property markets has been central to the financial distress experienced globally. The Irish housing market experienced particularly strong rates of price increases and heightened activity levels by OECD standards. One reason cited for such large price increases has been the significant degree of financial liberalisation experienced by Irish credit institutions. The culmination of much of this liberalisation resulted in large increases in the availability of mortgage credit. In this paper we apply a recently developed model of mortgage credit and examine the implications for Irish house prices of changes in lending patterns. Our results suggest that post 2003, a significant amount of the increase in Irish prices was determined by innovative developments in international finance, which enabled Irish institutions, in particular, to secure alternative sources of lending funds.

Estimating the Structural Demand for Irish Housing

After 10 years of unprecedented increases in both prices and activity levels, the Irish housing market appears to be entering a period of some uncertainty. In the early part of 2007, Irish house prices, for the first time in recent history, experienced negative growth rates - leading indicators within the housing sector would suggest that house building is already beginning to contract, with future levels expected to be somewhat below the record level of construction in 2006. The sustained increase in housing construction prompted by the rapid increase in prices has resulted in the Irish construction sector assuming a position of considerable importance within the overall economy. Arguably, any significant slowdown in housing activity could have far-reaching domestic consequences. In this paper, we use a recently developed model of the housing sector to gauge what the structural level of demand is for Irish housing.

Modelling Credit in the Irish Mortgage Market

The sharp decline in the performance of international property markets has been central to the financial distress experienced globally. The Irish housing market experienced particularly strong rates of price increases and heightened activity levels by OECD standards. One reason cited for such large price increases has been the significant degree of financial liberalisation experienced by Irish credit institutions. The culmination ofmuch of this liberalisation resulted in large increases in the availability of mortgage credit. In this paper we apply a recently developed model of mortgage credit and examine the implications for Irish house prices of changes in lending patterns. Our results suggest that post 2003, a significant amount of the increase in Irish prices was determined by innovative developments in international finance, which enabled Irish institutions, in particular, to secure alternative sources of lending funds.

Quantifying Revenue Windfalls from the Irish Housing Market

The speed and severity of the decline in the Irish fiscal position in recent years raises a number of important issues regarding the assessment of fiscal policy within the EU. From a position of relative strength, with large surpluses and low debt to GDP ratio, the Irish public finances have rapidly deteriorated, culminating in an Excessive Deficit Procedure being launched in early 2009. In hindsight, it is evident that tax revenues were on an unsustainable path in recent years due, in large part, to structural imbalances within the economy, mainly associated with the housing market. The excess growth in the latter culminated in large and transitory tax revenue windfalls, which ultimately proved unsustainable. These windfalls contributed to large general government and cyclically adjusted budget surpluses. This paper seeks to quantify the windfall gains associated with property taxes through modelling housing related tax receipts over the period 2002 to 2009. From this, estimates are derived as to the underlying or property adjusted fiscal position, which is found in various years, to have diverged greatly from actual outturns.

A Model of Mortgage Credit

The emergence and proliferation of the international financial crisis since mid-2007 has, amongst other issues, refocussed attention on the interrelationship between mortgage credit availability and house prices. A growing body of opinion is now of the view that the increase in credit availability internationally was a primary contributor to the rate of house price increases witnessed in many OECD countries over the past 10 years. House price growth in the UK over this period was to the fore of that experienced across countries, while the Anglo- Saxon system of banking was characterised by a significant degree of financial innovation yielding greater credit provision. In this paper we propose a simple intuitive model, which seeks to quantify the impact of credit market disequilibrium on UK house prices over the period 1992 - 2008.

Delayed presentation of traumatic aortocaval fistula: A report of two cases and a review of the associated compensatory hemodynamic and structural changes

Chronic aortocaval fistula (ACF) is a rare complication of gunshot wounds to the abdomen. Herein we report two cases of traumatic ACF: one asymptomatic and the other presenting with congestive heart failure (CHF) 20 and 30 years, respectively, after their initial injury. The recent onset of CHF, the presence of a continuous abdominal bruit, and, in the second patient, a history of penetrating trauma suggested the diagnosis of ACF. The diagnosis was confirmed by computed tomography scanning in both patients. Surgical repair of the ACF in the symptomatic patient resulted in resolution of the CHF and reversed the dilatation of the aorta and inferior vena cava. The asymptomatic patient was lost to follow-up. CHF in a young male patient with a history of penetrating abdominal trauma should alert the surgeon to this rare complication

Environmental Health Organisations against Tobacco

Implementing the World Health Organisation (WHO) Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) relies heavily on enforcement. Little is known of the way different enforcement agencies operate, prioritise or network. A questionnaire was sent to representatives of the International Federation of Environmental Health (IFEH) in 36 countries. Tobacco control was given low priority. Almost two thirds did not have any tobacco control policy. A third reported their organisation had worked with other agencies on tobacco control. Obstacles to addressing tobacco control included a lack of resources (61%) and absence of a coherent strategy (39%)

Novel biosensor fabrication methodology based on processable conducting polyaniline nanoparticles

This work investigates polyaniline (PANI) nanoparticles, (synthesised using dodecylbenzenesulphonic acid (DBSA) as a dopant), as a novel, highly processable, non-diffusional mediating species in an enzyme biosensing application. These nanoparticles are readily dispersed in aqueous media which helps overcome some of the processability issues traditionally associated with polyaniline. Modification of screen-printed electrodes was readily achieved with these aqueous nanoparticle dispersions, where the nanoparticles were simply cast by a drop-coating method onto the surface. After suitable pH adjustment, it was shown that horseradish peroxidase (HRP) enzyme could be added to the dispersion, and cast simultaneously with the conducting polyaniline. This effective fabrication method involves no electrochemical steps, and as such is easily amenable to mass production. The feasibility of casting enzyme with polyaniline nanoparticles is demonstrated in this short communication. More accurate deposition of protein-containing inks onto screen-printed carbon working electrodes could in the future transfer the drop-coating protocol from manual deposition to largescale production by mechanical methods such as ink-jet printing