Agriculture and climate change: An agenda for negotiation in Copenhagen

Table of Contents: •Overview by Gerald C. Nelson •Agricultural Science and Technology Needs for Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation by Rudy Rabbinge •Reducing Methane Emissions from Irrigated Rice by Reiner Wassmann, Yasukazu Hosen, and Kay Sumfleth •Direct and Indirect Mitigation Through Tree and Soil Management by Brent M. Swallow and Meine van Noordwijk •The Potential for Soil Carbon Sequestration by Rattan Lal •Mitigating Greenhouse Gas Emissions from Livestock Systems by M. Herrero and P. K. Thornton •The Role of Nutrient Management in Mitigation by Helen C. Flynn •Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification Methodologies for Agriculture, Forestry, and Other Land Use by Sean Smukler and Cheryl Palm •Synergies Among Mitigation, Adaptation, and Sustainable Development by Pete Smith •The Importance of Property Rights in Climate Change Mitigation by Helen Markelova and Ruth Meinzen-Dick •The Important Role of Extension Systems by Kristin E. Davis •Adaptation to Climate Change: Household Impacts and Institutional Responses by Futoshi Yamauchi and Agnes Quisumbing •The Constructive Role of International Trade by Franz FischlerClimate change, Copenhagen, Science and technology, rice, Soil fertility management, Greenhouse gas, Nutrients, Forestry resources, Land use, Sustainable development, International trade, extension activities, Household behavior, Institutional Impacts,

CORRECTING FOR SPATIAL EFFECTS IN LIMITED DEPENDENT VARIABLE REGRESSION: ASSESSING THE VALUE OF "AD-HOC" TECHNIQUES

A common test for spatial dependence in regression analysis with continuous dependent variables is the Moran's I. For limited dependent variable models, the standard definition of a residual breaks down because yi is qualitative. Efforts to correct for potential spatial effects in limited dependent variable models have relied on ad-hoc methods such as including a spatial lag variable or using a regular sample that omits neighboring observations. Kelejian and Prucha have recently developed a version of Moran's I for limited dependent variable models. We present the statistic in a more accessible way and use it to test the value of previously-used ad-hoc techniques with a specific data set. Keywords: Morans I, Spatial Autocorrelation, Limited Dependent Variable Models, Land-Use Change, Geographical Information Systems (GIS),Moran's I, Spatial Autocorrelation, Limited Dependent Variable Models, Land-Use Change, Geographical Information Systems (GIS), Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Assessing the Robustness of Predictions in Spatially Explicit Models of Land Use

We propose an information-theoretic approach to assess the performance of a discrete choice model used to analyze land use and land use change. We show that our disaggregated measure can be used to compare robustness of predictions across land use categories and across models. Furthermore, a proper reformulation of the problem shows that a disaggregated (observation by observation) log-likelihood lends itself to an information theoretic interpretation, which allows comparisons performance across models.Land Economics/Use,

Strategies for adapting to climate change in rural Sub-Saharan Africa

Given limited resources, adaptation strategies must target those populations most vulnerable to global change and equip those unable to adapt—generally the poorest—with the tools and incentives that will enable them to do so. ASARECA has recently carried out a study to enhance the understanding of climate change in the 10 ASARECA member countries. This report profiles the available climate change–related datasets and their accessibility and procurement details in the 10 ASARECA member countries. The report additionally assesses the incorporation of climate change adaptation strategies in national development plans and discusses each country’s position in the current UNFCCC negotiations. The study was conducted using a combination of extensive literature reviews and field visits to all 10 ASARECA member countries: Burundi, Democratic Republic of Congo, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Madagascar, Rwanda, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda. The report is organized in four sections. The first provides a description of the available climate change–related databases, along with details about their sources and accessibility in each of the 10 ASARECA member countries. Section 3 is a review of the status of the incorporation of climate change adaptation strategies in national development plans, while section 4 discusses the countries’ positions in the current UNFCCC negotiations. Finally, section 5 offers concluding remarks and suggestions for a way forward. In addition to the study report, separate files of existing climate change–related datasets are provided in EXCEL format

Enhancing food security in an era of global climate change

The goal of the workshop was to build a more strategic and integrated perspective on the threats and opportunities latent in the food / climate issue, and to discuss the hard challenges of moving forward toward common goals in a private, off-the-record setting. An executive session convened by the John F. Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University and the Venice International University on June 6-9, 2010 attracted more than 25 of the world’s leading experts from the fields of policy, science, and business to San Servolo Island for an intensive three day session (see text for a list of the participants). The discussions were off-the-record, with each participant present in his or her own capacity, rather than representing an organization. The session was one in a series on Grand Challenges of the Sustainability Transition organized by the Sustainability Science Program at Harvard University with the generous support of the Italy’s Ministry for Environment, Land and Sea. This particular session was held in cooperation with the new Mega Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security being developed by the Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) and the Earth System Science Partnership. This summary report of the session is our synthesis of the main points and arguments that emerged from the discussions. It does not represent a consensus document, since no effort was made at the Session to arrive at a single consensus view. Rather, we report here on what we heard to be the major themes discussed at the session. Any errors or misrepresentations remain solely our responsibility

Green, Adam. Selling the Race: Culture, Community and Black Chicago, 1940–1955. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2007. 280 pp.

Agreement is developing among agricultural scientists on the emerging inability of agriculture to meet growing global food demands. Changes in trends of weather conditions projected by global climate models will challenge physiological limits of crops and exacerbate the global food challenge by 2050. These climate- and constraint-driven crop production challenges are interconnected within a complex global economy, where diverse factors add to price volatility and food scarcity. Our scenarios of the impact of climate change on food security through 2050 for internationally traded crops show that climate change does not threaten near-term US food security due to the availability of adaptation strategies. However, as climate continues to change beyond 2050 current adaptation measures will not be sufficient to meet growing food demand. Climate scenarios for higher-level carbon emissions exacerbate the food shortfall, although uncertainty in projections of future precipitation is a limitation to impact studies