Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool

Background: Although the message of ‘‘global climate change’’ is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world. Methodology/Principal Findings: To demonstrate the Climate Wizard, we explored historic trends and future departures (anomalies) in temperature and precipitation globally, and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. We found the greatest temperature increases during 1951–2002 occurred in northern hemisphere countries (especially during January–April), but the latitude of greatest temperature change varied throughout the year, sinusoidally ranging from approximately 50uN during February-March to 10uN during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countries between 0–20uN, and increases mostly occurred outside of this latitudinal region. Similarly, a quantile ensemble analysis based on projections from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2070–2099 identified the median projected change within countries, which showed both latitudinal and regional patterns in projected temperature and precipitation change. Conclusions/Significance: The results of these analyses are consistent with those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but at the same time, they provide examples of how Climate Wizard can be used to explore regionally and temporally-specific analyses of climate change. Moreover, Climate Wizard is not a static product, but rather a data analysis framework designed to be used for climate change impact and adaption planning, which can be expanded to include other information, such as downscaled future projections of hydrology, soil moisture, wildfire, vegetation, marine conditions, disease, and agricultural productivity

Applied Climate-Change Analysis: The Climate Wizard Tool

Although the message of "global climate change" is catalyzing international action, it is local and regional changes that directly affect people and ecosystems and are of immediate concern to scientists, managers, and policy makers. A major barrier preventing informed climate-change adaptation planning is the difficulty accessing, analyzing, and interpreting climate-change information. To address this problem, we developed a powerful, yet easy to use, web-based tool called Climate Wizard (http://ClimateWizard.org) that provides non-climate specialists with simple analyses and innovative graphical depictions for conveying how climate has and is projected to change within specific geographic areas throughout the world.To demonstrate the Climate Wizard, we explored historic trends and future departures (anomalies) in temperature and precipitation globally, and within specific latitudinal zones and countries. We found the greatest temperature increases during 1951-2002 occurred in northern hemisphere countries (especially during January-April), but the latitude of greatest temperature change varied throughout the year, sinusoidally ranging from approximately 50 degrees N during February-March to 10 degrees N during August-September. Precipitation decreases occurred most commonly in countries between 0-20 degrees N, and increases mostly occurred outside of this latitudinal region. Similarly, a quantile ensemble analysis based on projections from 16 General Circulation Models (GCMs) for 2070-2099 identified the median projected change within countries, which showed both latitudinal and regional patterns in projected temperature and precipitation change.The results of these analyses are consistent with those reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but at the same time, they provide examples of how Climate Wizard can be used to explore regionally- and temporally-specific analyses of climate change. Moreover, Climate Wizard is not a static product, but rather a data analysis framework designed to be used for climate change impact and adaption planning, which can be expanded to include other information, such as downscaled future projections of hydrology, soil moisture, wildfire, vegetation, marine conditions, disease, and agricultural productivity

No reef is an island: integrating coral reef connectivity data into the design of regional-scale marine protected area networks

We integrated coral reef connectivity data for the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico into a conservation decision-making framework for designing a regional scale marine protected area (MPA) network that provides insight into ecological and political contexts. We used an ocean circulation model and regional coral reef data to simulate eight spawning events from 2008-2011, applying a maximum 30-day pelagic larval duration and 20% mortality rate. Coral larval dispersal patterns were analyzed between coral reefs across jurisdictional marine zones to identify spatial relationships between larval sources and destinations within countries and territories across the region. We applied our results in Marxan, a conservation planning software tool, to identify a regional coral reef MPA network design that meets conservation goals, minimizes underlying threats, and maintains coral reef connectivity. Our results suggest that approximately 77% of coral reefs identified as having a high regional connectivity value are not included in the existing MPA network. This research is unique because we quantify and report coral larval connectivity data by marine ecoregions and Exclusive Economic Zones (EZZ) and use this information to identify gaps in the current Caribbean-wide MPA network by integrating asymmetric connectivity information in Marxan to design a regional MPA network that includes important reef network connections. The identification of important reef connectivity metrics guides the selection of priority conservation areas and supports resilience at the whole system level into the future

Regional High-Resolution Benthic Habitat Data From Planet Dove Imagery For Conservation Decision-Making and Marine Planning

High-resolution benthic habitat data fill an important knowledge gap for many areas of the world and are essential for strategic marine conservation planning and implementing effective resource management. Many countries lack the resources and capacity to create these products, which has hindered the development of accurate ecological baselines for assessing protection needs for coastal and marine habitats and monitoring change to guide adaptive management actions. The PlanetScope (PS) Dove Classic SmallSat constellation delivers high-resolution imagery (4 m) and near-daily global coverage that facilitates the compilation of a cloud-free and optimal water column image composite of the Caribbean’s nearshore environment. These data were used to develop a first-of-its-kind regional thirteen-class benthic habitat map to 30 m water depth using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. A total of 203,676 km2 of shallow benthic habitat across the Insular Caribbean was mapped, representing 5% coral reef, 43% seagrass, 15% hardbottom, and 37% other habitats. Results from a combined major class accuracy assessment yielded an overall accuracy of 80% with a standard error of less than 1% yielding a confidence interval of 78–82%. Of the total area mapped, 15% of these habitats (31,311.7 km2) are within a marine protected or managed area. This information provides a baseline of ecological data for developing and executing more strategic conservation actions, including implementing more effective marine spatial plans, prioritizing and improving marine protected area design, monitoring condition and change for post-storm damage assessments, and providing more accurate habitat data for ecosystem service models

Selective APRIL Blockade Delays Systemic Lupus Erythematosus in Mouse

SLE pathogenesis is complex, but it is now widely accepted that autoantibodies play a key role in the process by forming excessive immune complexes; their deposits within tissues leading to inflammation and functional damages. A proliferation inducing ligand (APRIL) is a member of the tumor necrosis factor (TNF) superfamily mediating antibody-producing plasma cell (PC)-survival that may be involved in the duration of pathogenic autoantibodies in lupus. We found significant increases of APRIL at the mRNA and protein levels in bone marrow but not spleen cells from NZB/W lupus mice, as compared to control mice. Selective antibody-mediated APRIL blockade delays disease development in this model by preventing proteinuria, kidney lesions, and mortality. Notably, this was achieved by decreasing anti-DNA and anti-chromatin autoantibody levels, without any perturbation of B- and T- cell homeostasis. Thus, anti-APRIL treatment may constitute an alternative therapy in SLE highly specific to PCs compared to other B-cell targeting therapies tested in this disease, and likely to be associated with less adverse effects than any anti-inflammatory and immunosuppressant agents previously used

Membrane-Bound TNF Induces Protective Immune Responses to M. bovis BCG Infection: Regulation of memTNF and TNF Receptors Comparing Two memTNF Molecules

Several activities of the transmembrane form of TNF (memTNF) in immune responses to intracellular bacterial infection have been shown to be different from those exerted by soluble TNF. Evidence is based largely on studies in transgenic mice expressing memTNF, but precise cellular mechanisms are not well defined and the importance of TNF receptor regulation is unknown. In addition, memTNF activities are defined for a particular modification of the extracellular domain of TNF but a direct comparison of different mutant memTNF molecules has not been done in vivo

Intuitive Simulation, Querying, and Visualization for River Basin Policy and Management

Sustainable use of the freshwater resources of the world is an urgent challenge. The World Health Organization recently estimated that 1.1 billion people lack access to safe drinking water, a problem the United Nations highlights in its Millennium Development Goals. To address the scale and urgency of this challenge, IBM, The Nature Conservancy, and the Center for Sustainability and the Global Environment at the University of Wisconsin-Madison are collaborating to develop innovative, technology-based decision-support tools for improved management of water resources worldwide. The Water for Tomorrow modeling framework and decision support system (DSS) is designed to help policy makers and a variety of stakeholders to assess, come to consensus, and act on land-use decisions that balance human use, ecosystem preservation, and ecosystem restoration. Such stakeholders include farmers, fish and wildlife managers, food-processing plant managers, and hydropower operators. Initially focused on the Paraguay-Parana Basin of Brazil, in partnership with local academic and public-sector collaborators, the DSS integrates data and models from a wide variety of environmental sectors, including water balance, water quality, carbon balance, crop production, and proxies for biodiversity. Intuitive interfaces and complex query support allow users to reach a rich understanding of the effect of changes in management on freshwater ecosystems

Reef Rover: A Low-Cost Small Autonomous Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) for Mapping and Monitoring Coral Reefs

In the effort to design a more repeatable and consistent platform to collect data for Structure from Motion (SfM) monitoring of coral reefs and other benthic habitats, we explore the use of recent advances in open source Global Positioning System (GPS)-guided drone technology to design and test a low-cost and transportable small unmanned surface vehicle (sUSV). The vehicle operates using Ardupilot open source software and can be used by local scientists and marine managers to map and monitor marine environments in shallow areas (<20 m) with commensurate visibility. The imaging system uses two Sony a6300 mirrorless cameras to collect stereo photos that can be later processed using photogrammetry software to create underwater high-resolution orthophoto mosaics and digital surface models. The propulsion system consists of two small brushless motors powered by lithium batteries that follow pre-programmed survey transects and are operated by a GPS-guided autopilot control board. Results from our project suggest the sUSV provides a repeatable, viable, and low-cost (<$3000 USD) solution for acquiring images of benthic environments on a frequent basis from directly below the water surface. These images can be used to create SfM models that provide very detailed images and measurements that can be used to monitor changes in biodiversity, reef erosion/accretion, and assessing health conditions

A Low-Cost Small Unmanned Surface Vehicle (sUSV) For Very High-Resolution Mapping and Monitoring of Shallow Marine Habitats

In the effort to design a more repeatable and consistent platform to collect data for Structure from Motion (SfM) monitoring of coral reefs and other benthic habitats, we explore the use of recent advancements in opensource GPS-guided drone technology to design and test a low-cost and transportable small Unmanned Surface Vehicle (sUSV). The vehicle operates using Ardupilot open source software and can be used by marine managers to map and monitor marine environments in shallow areas (\u3c20m). The imaging system uses two Sony a6300 mirrorless cameras to collect stereo photos that can be later processed using photogrammetry software to create underwater high resolution orthophoto mosaics and digital surface models. The propulsion system consists of two small brushless motors powered by lithium batteries that follow pre-programmed survey transects and are operated by a GPS-guided autopilot control board. Results from our project suggest the sUSV provides a repeatable, viable, and low-cost (\u3c$2000 USD) solution for acquiring images of benthic environments on a frequent basis from near the water surface. These images can be used to create SfM models that provide very detailed images and measurements that can be used for monitoring changes in biodiversity, reef erosion/accretion, and assessing health conditions

Rapid Assessment of Storm-Surge Inundation After Hurricane Katrina Utilizing a Modified Distance Interpolation Approach

This study developed a method to rapidly assess, during early mitigation planning and recovery efforts, both the flood extent and the water depth of Hurricane Katrina\u27s storm surge. Over a hundred high water marks were collected within the Mississippi Gulf Coast study area utilizing survey equipment and GPS measurements. In order to account for the many inlets and estuaries along the coast, an interpolation approach was tested that allowed the interpolation algorithm to calculate distance around such barrier features rather than directly through them, thus more appropriately modeling the physical process of water distribution during the storm surge event. This technique was implemented operationally using a cost surface algorithm, available in most GIS software packages. A binary impedance surface (travel is either possible or not) was utilized as input to the cost surface algorithm. The impedance surface was generated using modified hydrologic operations on an existing lidar-derived DEM. This technique is detailed. The water surface generated from these points more closely matched the reference surface than those of comparable surfaces generated using tradition interpolation techniques. The reference datasets for this project consisted of FEMA flood inundation and water surface maps released a few months after the datasets created for this project