Forecasting of arecanut market price in north eastern India: ARIMA modelling approach

The paper deals with forecasting of minimum, maximum and average arecanut (Areca catechu L.) prices in the major arecanut markets of the Assam as well as Meghalaya based on the monthly price data. Monthly minimum, maximum, and average market price data of arecanut (in Rs./quintal) for the period May-2003 to March-2012 (for Assam) and February-2003 to March-2012 (for Meghalaya) were used. Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) methodology was adopted for developing the models. An interrupted time-series model was also applied to resolve the problem of intervention point (October-2011) for Meghalaya price data. The proposed models were ARIMA (1, 0, 1), ARIMA (1, 1, 1), ARIMA (0, 1, 1) (for Assam market price data series) and, log ARIMA (0, 1, 1), log ARIMA (1, 0, 1) with linear trend and a man-made intervention (Oct-2011) and log ARIMA (0, 1, 1) with linear trend and a manmade intervention (Oct-2011) (for Meghalaya market price data series) for minimum, maximum, and average monthly price series, respectively

The church in Nigeria and political economy of youth unemployment : a pragmatic approach

Nigeria has over 57% of its population as youths. The nation is rich in human and mineral resources, yet the level of youth unemployment continues to rise and to pose serious socioeconomic and political threats. The aim of this study was to highlight the strong link between the high level of youth unemployment and the rising tide of violence and criminalization of the public space in Nigeria. In other words, we argued that the youth routinely took out their frustrations in violent and criminal forms. The study was set in Aba, city of Abia state, which is arguably the largest commercial town in the south-east region of Nigeria. It is also synonymous with violent and criminal social breakdowns. This empirical study adopted a multi-phase sampling technique for the data collection procedure, including the distribution of questionnaires, extensive library research and personal observation. By implication, both primary and secondary sources were used. The results show that youth unemployment was on the increase and government efforts alone were inadequate to solve the problem. In conclusion, the all-hands-on-deck approach was advocated. This entailed that the visibility of the church at almost every level of community life, especially at the grass-root level must be used as a vital platform to reach the people. Thus, it was recommended that the church should actively tap into the multifarious professional capacities of her members and use them as resource persons to creatively tackle the problem of youth unemployment. CONTRIBUTION: This article contributes to the concept ‘faith seeking understanding’. It includes a systematic and practical reflection, within a paradigm in which the intersection of social sciences and theology generates a transdisciplinary contested discourse.http://www.hts.org.zapm2021Practical Theolog

The associations of economic growth and anaemia for school-aged children in China

Economic growth has brought improvements in many areas of child health, but its effects on anaemia among school-aged children remain unknown. However, this is important because iron deficiency anaemia is common and is the main cause of disability-adjusted life years for school-aged children. In this study, we included 429,222 Chinese children aged 7–17 years from five consecutive national cross-sectional surveys during 1995–2014. Using altitude-adjusted haemoglobin concentration measured from capillary blood samples, we defined anaemia status according to World Health Organization's recommendation. We used logistic regressions weighted by provincial population to examine the association between provincial gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and anaemia, adjusting for sex, age, urban–rural location, regional socio-economic status (SES), fixed effect of province, and clustering of schools. We used generalised additive mixed models to evaluate a potentially non-linear relationship. For each 100% growth in GDP per capita, there was a 40% (odds ratio [OR] = 0.60; 95% confidence interval [CI; 0.56, 0.65]) reduction in anaemia. However, the association was weaker for girls and in cities with a lower SES. The association was weaker across 2005–2014 (OR = 0.75, 95% CI [0.62, 0.90]) compared with 1995–2005 (OR = 0.52; 95% CI [0.44, 0.61]), reflecting a weaker association when GDP per capita reaches around $2,000. The results were similar for moderate-to-severe anaemia. We concluded that economic growth has been associated with reductions in anaemia among school-aged children in China but with fewer benefits for girls and those in poorer settings. Further economic development in China is unlikely to bring similar reductions in anaemia, suggesting that additional population level and targeted interventions will be needed

Scaling Rule for Nonperturbative Radiation in a Class of Event Shapes

We discuss nonperturbative radiation for a recently introduced class of infrared safe event shape weights, which describe the narrow-jet limit. Starting from next-to-leading logarithmic (NLL) resummation, we derive an approximate scaling rule that relates the nonperturbative shape functions for these weights to the shape function for the thrust. We argue that the scaling reflects the boost invariance implicit in NLL resummation, and discuss its limitations. In the absence of data analysis for the new event shapes, we compare these predictions to the output of the event generator PYTHIA.Comment: 23 pages, 3 figures, uses JHEP3.cls (included); v2 - version to appear in JHE

Event Shape/Energy Flow Correlations

We introduce a set of correlations between energy flow and event shapes that are sensitive to the flow of color at short distances in jet events. These correlations are formulated for a general set of event shapes, which includes jet broadening and thrust as special cases. We illustrate the method for electron-positron annihilation dijet events, and calculate the correlation at leading logarithm in the energy flow and at next-to-leading-logarithm in the event shape.Comment: 43 pages, eight eps figures; minor changes, references adde

Atomic X-ray Spectroscopy of Accreting Black Holes

Current astrophysical research suggests that the most persistently luminous objects in the Universe are powered by the flow of matter through accretion disks onto black holes. Accretion disk systems are observed to emit copious radiation across the electromagnetic spectrum, each energy band providing access to rather distinct regimes of physical conditions and geometric scale. X-ray emission probes the innermost regions of the accretion disk, where relativistic effects prevail. While this has been known for decades, it also has been acknowledged that inferring physical conditions in the relativistic regime from the behavior of the X-ray continuum is problematic and not satisfactorily constraining. With the discovery in the 1990s of iron X-ray lines bearing signatures of relativistic distortion came the hope that such emission would more firmly constrain models of disk accretion near black holes, as well as provide observational criteria by which to test general relativity in the strong field limit. Here we provide an introduction to this phenomenon. While the presentation is intended to be primarily tutorial in nature, we aim also to acquaint the reader with trends in current research. To achieve these ends, we present the basic applications of general relativity that pertain to X-ray spectroscopic observations of black hole accretion disk systems, focusing on the Schwarzschild and Kerr solutions to the Einstein field equations. To this we add treatments of the fundamental concepts associated with the theoretical and modeling aspects of accretion disks, as well as relevant topics from observational and theoretical X-ray spectroscopy.Comment: 63 pages, 21 figures, Einstein Centennial Review Article, Canadian Journal of Physics, in pres

Why Operationism Doesn't Go Away: Extrascientific Incentives of Social-Psychological Research

Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/69038/2/10.1177_004839318601600302.pd

Differences in Characteristics and Outcome of Patients with Penetrating Injuries in the USA and the Netherlands: A Multi-institutional Comparison

Introduction: The incidence and nature of penetrating injuries differ between countries. The aim of this study was to analyze characteristics and clinical outcomes of patients with penetrating injuries treated at urban Level-1 trauma centers in the USA (USTC) and the Netherlands (NLTC). Methods: In this retrospective cohort study, 1331 adult patients (470 from five NLTC and 861 from three USTC) with truncal penetrating injuries admitted between July 2011 and December 2014 were included. In-hospital mortality was the primary outcome. Outcome comparisons were adjusted for differences in population characteristics in multivariable analyses. Results: In USTC, gunshot wound injuries (36.1 vs. 17.4%, p < 0.001) and assaults were more frequent (91.2 vs. 77.7%, p < 0.001). ISS was higher in USTC, but the Revised Trauma Score (RTS) was comparable. In-hospital mortality was similar (5.0 vs. 3.6% in NLTC, p = 0.25). The adjusted odds ratio for mortality in USTC compared to NLTC was 0.95 (95% confidence interval 0.35–2.54). Hospital stay length of stay was shorter in USTC (difference 0.17 days, 95% CI −0.29 to −0.05, p = 0.005), ICU admission rate was comparable (OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.71–1.31, p = 0.80), and ICU length of stay was longer in USTC (difference of 0.39 days, 95% CI 0.18–0.60, p < 0.0001). More USTC patients were discharged to home (86.9 vs. 80.6%, p < 0.001). Readmission rates were similar (5.6 vs. 3.8%, p = 0.17). Conclusion: Despite the higher incidence of penetrating trauma, particularly firearm-related injuries, and higher hospital volumes in the USTC compared to the NLTC, the in-hospital mortality was similar. In this study, outcome of care was not significantly influenced by differences in incidence of firearm-related injuries

Voiceless but empowered farmers in corporate supply chains: contradictory imagery and instrumental approach to empowerment

There have been calls for a shift of focus towards the political and power-laden aspects of transitioning towards socially equitable global supply chains. This paper offers an empirically grounded response to these calls from a critical realist stance in the context of global food supply chains. We examine how an imaginary for sustainable farming structured around an instrumental construction of empowerment limits what is viewed as permissible, desirable and possible in global food supply chains. We adopt a multimodal Critical Discourse Analysis (CDA) to examine the sustainable farming imaginary for smallholder farmers constructed by one large organization, Unilever, in a series of videos produced and disseminated on YouTube. We expose the underlying mechanisms of power and marginalization at work within the sustainability imaginary and show how “empowerment” has the potential to create of new dependencies for these farmers. We recontextualize the representations to show that while the imaginary may be commercially feasible, it is less achievable in terms of empowering smallholder farmers