Detection and visualisation of climate trends in China

Research on climate trends in China has been carried out within a co-operation of the Justus Liebig Universities Department of Geography and Zentrum für internationale Entwicklungs- und Umweltforschung (ZEU) and the Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology (CAS). First results were introduced by BECKER et al. 2003 a, b who worked on precipitation trend analyses in the Yangtze River Catchment. In the meanwhile, the National Climatic Centre of China (NCCC) kindly provided climatic data in China within the framework of this co-operation. Financial support from the CAS Key project KZCX3-SW-331 and the NSFC project 40271112 enabled the data acquisition. The analysis of both, precipitation and temperature data for the whole of China from 1951- 2002 can be carried out now. A shorter version of the precipitation trend observation will soon be published in Theoretical and Applied Climatology (GEMMER et al. 2003, accepted for publication/in print). Results of the temperature trend research have not been published yet. They will be submitted to an international Journal when further statistical approaches with regard to daily temperature data are processed. The discussion paper in hand will make the actual results accessible for further research groups in Germany. --

Visualisation and drought information (1100 -1940) for the middle reaches of the Yangtze River Valley, P.R. China

--

Drought losses in China might double between the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

We project drought losses in China under global temperature increase of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C, based on the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI), a cluster analysis method, and “intensity-loss rate” function. In contrast to earlier studies, to project the drought losses, we predict the regional gross domestic product under shared socioeconomic pathways instead of using a static socioeconomic scenario. We identify increasing precipitation and evapotranspiration pattern for the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C global warming above the preindustrial at 2020–2039 and 2040–2059, respectively. With increasing drought intensity and areal coverage across China, drought losses will soar. The estimated loss in a sustainable development pathway at the 1.5 °C warming level increases 10-fold in comparison with the reference period 1986–2005 and nearly threefold relative to the interval 2006–2015. However, limiting the temperature increase to 1.5 °C can reduce the annual drought losses in China by several tens of billions of US dollars, compared with the 2.0 °C warming

EU and international policies for hydrometeorological risks: Operational aspects and link to climate action

Changes in hydrometeorological characteristics and risks have been observed and are projected to increase under climate change. These considerations are scientifically well studied and led to the development of a complex policy framework for adaptation and mitigation for hydrometeorological risks. Awareness for policy actions is growing worldwide but no legal framework is in place to tackle climate change impacts on water at a global scale. With the example of international frameworks and the legislation on EU-level, this article elaborates that hydrometeorological risks are not considered in the framework of one single policy. However, various policy instruments are directly or indirectly considering these risks at different operational levels. It is discussed that a tailor-made framework for hydrometeorological risks would improve coordination at international or national level. A major drawback for a single operational framework is that hydrometeorological risks are scientifically tackled in two large communities: the disaster risk reduction community and the climate change adaptation community, both of which are bound to different research and operational funding budgets. In future, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation will need been seen as a complementary set of actions that requires collaboration

Air Quality Legislation and Standards in the European Union: Background, Status and Public Participation

In order to improve air quality, the European Union introduced the New Air Quality Directive in 2008 and set its Member States strict targets on air pollution concentrations for the most harmful and challenging substances, such as fine particles. The law enforcement relies on a monitoring and reporting system to inform the European Commission and the public, for it is the citizens’ right to be informed about harmful air quality. With sectoral measures, air quality could be improved in the past 20 years, but some emissions concentrations have stagnated in recent years and emissions temporarily exceed thresholds in nearly half of the Member States. The European Emission Inventory allows the commission to identify the substances, areas, and times of exceedances, and to implement sectoral measures leading to air quality improvements, all of which have to be made available publicly. This manuscript introduces the air quality legislation and reviews the quality of European air for recent years. Gemmer, M., and B. Xiao, 2013: Air quality legislation and standards in the European Union: Background, status and public participation. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 4 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2013.050

EU and international policies for hydrometeorological risks: Operational aspects and link to climate action

Changes in hydrometeorological characteristics and risks have been observed and are projected to increase under climate change. These considerations are scientifically well studied and led to the development of a complex policy framework for adaptation and mitigation for hydrometeorological risks. Awareness for policy actions is growing worldwide but no legal framework is in place to tackle climate change impacts on water at a global scale. With the example of international frameworks and the legislation on EU-level, this article elaborates that hydrometeorological risks are not considered in the framework of one single policy. However, various policy instruments are directly or indirectly considering these risks at different operational levels. It is discussed that a tailor-made framework for hydrometeorological risks would improve coordination at international or national level. A major drawback for a single operational framework is that hydrometeorological risks are scientifically tackled in two large communities: the disaster risk reduction community and the climate change adaptation community, both of which are bound to different research and operational funding budgets. In future, disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation will need been seen as a complementary set of actions that requires collaboration

Governing Climate Change Adaptation in the EU and China: An Analysis of Formal Institutions

Both the European Union (EU) and China are culturally, economically, climatologically and environmentally diverse polities. The EU is a multi-state grouping of economically developed democratic countries, while China is a unitary sovereign state and a developing economy with a strong government bureaucracy. Our hypothesis is that given their diverse political systems, the EU and China would develop different kinds of systems for the governance of adaptation to climate change. We test this hypothesis through a comparative analysis of policy documents from the two study areas, in which we examine framework policies, programmatic actions and specific actions that have been adopted to date in order to address climate change, with a specific focus on the water sector. We find that climate change adaptation began to be addressed through formal policy on a similar timeline in the two regions. The EU and China are also similar in that they use framework laws and existing sectoral policy, such as for the water sector. We find that the EU has primarily relied on integration of climate change adaptation concerns through legal instruments which set a framework for implementation of adaptation policy. In China, specific actions to be incorporated in socio-economic development plans under the existing legislation on adaptation have been the main mode for integrating adaptation into sectoral actions, though the future trend may be to develop more regulations. Gemmer, M., A. Wilkes, and L. M. Vaucel, 2011: Governing climate change adaptation in the EU and China: An analysis of formal institutions. Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2 (1), doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2011.00001

Trends in Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China (1961–2007)

Monthly temperature and precipitation time-series for the Zhujiang River Basin are analyzed in order to identify changes in climate extremes. Daily temperature and precipitation data from 1961 to 2007 of 192 meteorological stations are used. Two temperature indicators (monthly mean and monthly maximum mean) and three precipitation indicators (monthly total, monthly maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation, and monthly dry days) are analyzed. Tendencies in all five indicators can be observed. Many stations show significant positive trends (above the 90% confidence level) for monthly mean temperatures and monthly maximum mean temperatures. For all months, a significant increase in temperature from 1961 to 2007 can be observed in the entire basin with the coastal area in particular. Positive trends of precipitation extremes can be observed from January to March. Negative trends are detected from September to November. The number of dry days in October increased significantly at 40% of all meteorological stations. Stations with changes of monthly precipitation extremes are scattered over the Zhujiang River Basin. An aggregation of heat waves and droughts can be detected which is accompanied by significant increases of temperature extremes and the negative tendencies in precipitation extremes. The detection of tendencies in climate extremes essentially relies on a good data quality and high station density. Fischer, T., M. Gemmer, L. Liu, et al., 2010: Trends in monthly temperature and precipitation extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China (1961–2007). Adv. Clim. Change Res., 1, doi: 10.3724/SP.J.1248.2010.00063

On track to become a low carbon future city? : First findings from the pilot city of Wuxi

Increasing urbanisation and climate change belong to the greatest challenges of the 21st century. A high share of global greenhouse gas emissions are estimated to originate in urban areas (40 % to 78 % according to UN Habitat 2010). Therefore, low carbon city strategies and concepts implicate large greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potentials. At the same time, with high population and infrastructure densities as well as concentrated economic activities, cities are particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change and need to adapt. Scarce natural resources further constrain the leeway for long-term, sustainable urban development. The Low Carbon Future Cities (LCFC) project aims at tapping this three-dimensional challenge and will develop an integrated strategy / roadmap, balancing low carbon development, gains in resource efficiency and adaptation to climate change. The study focuses on two pilot regions - one in China (Wuxi) and one in Germany (Düsseldorf+) - and is conducted by a German-Chinese research team supported by the German Stiftung Mercator. The paper gives an overview of first outcomes of the analysis of the status quo and assessment of the most likely developments regarding GHG emissions, climate impacts and resource use in Wuxi. The project developed an emission inventory for Wuxi to identify key sectors for further analysis and low carbon scenarios. The future development of energy demand and related CO2 emissions in 2030 were simulated in the current policy scenario (CPS), using five different sub-models. Selected aspects of Wuxi's current material and water flows were analysed and modelled for energy transformation and the building sector. Current and future climate impacts and vulnerability were investigated. Recent climatic changes and resulting damages were analysed, expected changes in temperature and precipitation in the coming four decades were projected using ensembles of three General Circulation Models. Although Wuxi's government started a path to implement a low carbon plan, the first results show that more ambitious efforts are needed to overcome the challenges faced