Heavy Baryons: A Combined Large N_c and Heavy Quark Expansion for Electroweak Currents

The combined large N_c and heavy quark limit for baryons containing a single heavy quark is discussed. The combined large N_c and heavy quark expansion of the heavy quark bilinear operators is obtained. In the combined expansion the corrections proportional to m_N/m_Q are summed to all orders. In particular, the combined expansion can be used to determine semileptonic form factors of heavy baryons in the combined limit.Comment: 8 pages. Presented at The Phenomenology of Large N_c QCD, Tempe, Arizona, 9-11 Jan 200

Nucleon-Nucleon Scattering and Large N(c) QCD

Nucleon-nucleon scattering observables are discussed in the context of large Nc QCD. As is well known, the baryon spectrum in the large Nc limit exhibits contracted SU(2Nf) spin-flavor sym- metry. This symmetry can be used to derive model-independent relations between proton-proton and proton-neutron total cross sections. These relations are valid in the kinematic regime in which the relative momentum of two nucleons is of order of Nc. In this semiclassical regime the nucleon-nucleon scattering can be described in the time-dependent mean field approximation. These model-independent results are compared to experimental data for spin-independent and polarized total nucleon-nucleon cross sections.Comment: 9 pages, 3 figures. Invited talk, Xth Quark Confinement and the Hadron Spectrum, October 201

Multivariate Hierarchical Frameworks for Modelling Delayed Reporting in Count Data

In many fields and applications count data can be subject to delayed reporting. This is where the total count, such as the number of disease cases contracted in a given week, may not be immediately available, instead arriving in parts over time. For short term decision making, the statistical challenge lies in predicting the total count based on any observed partial counts, along with a robust quantification of uncertainty. In this article we discuss previous approaches to modelling delayed reporting and present a multivariate hierarchical framework where the count generating process and delay mechanism are modelled simultaneously. Unlike other approaches, the framework can also be easily adapted to allow for the presence of under-reporting in the final observed count. To compare our approach with existing frameworks, one of which we extend to potentially improve predictive performance, we present a case study of reported dengue fever cases in Rio de Janeiro. Based on both within-sample and out-of-sample posterior predictive model checking and arguments of interpretability, adaptability, and computational efficiency, we discuss the advantages and disadvantages of each modelling framework.Comment: Biometrics (2019

The Mass of the Higgs Boson in the Standard Electroweak Model

An updated global analysis within the Standard Model (SM) of all relevant electroweak precision and Higgs boson search data is presented with special emphasis on the implications for the Higgs boson mass, M_H. Included are, in particular, the most recent results on the top quark and W boson masses, updated and significantly shifted constraints on the strong coupling constant, alpha_s, from tau decays and other low energy measurements such as from atomic parity violation and neutrino deep inelastic scattering. The latest results from searches for Higgs production and decay at the Tevatron are incorporated together with the older constraints from LEP 2. I find a trimodal probability distribution for M_H with a fairly narrow preferred 90% CL window, 115 GeV < M_H < 148 GeV.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures; 2 references added, 3 removed; a few changes in text; final version as published in journa

Mind the gap! A multilevel analysis of factors related to variation in published cost-effectiveness estimates within and between countries

Background. Published cost-effectiveness estimates can vary considerably, both within and between countries. Despite extensive discussion, little is known empirically about factors relating to these variations. Objectives. To use multilevel statistical modeling to integrate cost-effectiveness estimates from published economic evaluations to investigate potential causes of variation. Methods. Cost-effectiveness studies of statins for cardiovascular disease prevention were identified by systematic review. Estimates of incremental costs and effects were extracted from reported base case, sensitivity, and subgroup analyses, with estimates grouped in studies and in countries. Three bivariate models were developed: a cross-classified model to accommodate data from multinational studies, a hierarchical model with multinational data allocated to a single category at country level, and a hierarchical model excluding multinational data. Covariates at different levels were drawn from a long list of factors suggested in the literature. Results. We found 67 studies reporting 2094 cost-effectiveness estimates relating to 23 countries (6 studies reporting for more than 1 country). Data and study-level covariates included patient characteristics, intervention and comparator cost, and some study methods (e.g., discount rates and time horizon). After adjusting for these factors, the proportion of variation attributable to countries was negligible in the cross-classified model but moderate in the hierarchical models (14%−19% of total variance). Country-level variables that improved the fit of the hierarchical models included measures of income and health care finance, health care resources, and population risks. Conclusions. Our analysis suggested that variability in published cost-effectiveness estimates is related more to differences in study methods than to differences in national context. Multinational studies were associated with much lower country-level variation than single-country studies. These findings are for a single clinical question and may be atypical

Excited Heavy Baryons and Their Symmetries II: Effective Theory

We develop an effective theory for heavy baryons and their excited states. The approach is based on the contracted O(8) symmetry recently shown to emerge from QCD for these states in the combined large N_c and heavy quark limits. The effective theory is based on perturbations about this limit; a power counting scheme is developed in which the small parameter is lambda^{1/2} where lambda ~ 1/N_c, Lambda /m_Q (with Lambda being a typical strong interaction scale). We derive the effective Hamiltonian for strong interactions at next-to-leading order. The next-to-leading order effective Hamiltonian depends on only two parameters beyond the known masses of the nucleon and heavy meson. We also show that the effective operators for certain electroweak transitions can be obtained with no unknown parameters at next-to-leading order.Comment: 17 pages, LaTeX; typos remove

Cosmological Constraints on f(R) Acceleration Models

Models which accelerate the expansion of the universe through the addition of a function of the Ricci scalar f(R) leave a characteristic signature in the large-scale structure of the universe at the Compton wavelength scale of the extra scalar degree of freedom. We search for such a signature in current cosmological data sets: the WMAP cosmic microwave background (CMB) power spectrum, SNLS supernovae distance measures, the SDSS luminous red galaxy power spectrum, and galaxy-CMB angular correlations. Due to theoretical uncertainties in the nonlinear evolution of f(R) models, the galaxy power spectrum conservatively yields only weak constraints on the models despite the strong predicted signature in the linear matter power spectrum. Currently the tightest constraints involve the modification to the integrated Sachs-Wolfe effect from growth of gravitational potentials during the acceleration epoch. This effect is manifest for large Compton wavelengths in enhanced low multipole power in the CMB and anti-correlation between the CMB and tracers of the potential. They place a bound on the Compton wavelength of the field be less than of order the Hubble scale.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figure

Polling bias and undecided voter allocations: US Presidential elections, 2004 - 2016

Accounting for undecided and uncertain voters is a challenging issue for predicting election results from public opinion polls. Undecided voters typify the uncertainty of swing voters in polls but are often ignored or allocated to each candidate in a simple, deterministic manner. Historically this may have been adequate because the undecided were comparatively small enough to assume that they do not affect the relative proportions of the decided voters. However, in the presence of high numbers of undecided voters, these static rules may in fact bias election predictions from election poll authors and meta-poll analysts. In this paper, we examine the effect of undecided voters in the 2016 US presidential election to the previous three presidential elections. We show there were a relatively high number of undecided voters over the campaign and on election day, and that the allocation of undecided voters in this election was not consistent with two-party proportional (or even) allocations. We find evidence that static allocation regimes are inadequate for election prediction models and that probabilistic allocations may be superior. We also estimate the bias attributable to polling agencies, often referred to as "house effects".Comment: 32 pages, 9 figures, 6 table

The hydrogenation of metals upon interaction with water

Hydrogen evolution at 600 deg and 5 x 10 to the 7th power - 10 to the 6th power torr from AVOOO Al samples, which were pickled in 10 percent NaOH, is discussed. An H evolution kinetic equation is derived for samples of equal vol. and different surfaces (5 and 20 sq cm). The values of the H evolution coefficient K indicated an agreement with considered H diffusion mechanism through an oxide layer. The activation energy for the H evolution process, obtained from the K-temp. relation, was 13,000 2000 cal/g-atom