Geopolitical risks for Egypt wheat supply and trade

IntroductionSince 2005, Russia has established a stable position in Egypt's wheat imports, and after 2016, it became the largest global wheat exporter. The shift in Russian grain production has visibly affected wheat export destinations in favor of developing countries. This paper identifies the main determinants of wheat trade in Egypt concerning the primary risks associated with the war in Ukraine.MethodsThe paper utilizes time series analysis, index analysis, and an econometric model to define the statistical relationship between the quantity of wheat imported into Egypt and population development, wheat price, and wheat production.ResultsDespite increasing wheat production growth rates (1.9% p.a. over 2000–2020) and a growing population (2.01% p.a.), Egypt is unable to reduce its import dependence below 50% of total consumption. Undernourishment in Egypt remains at 5.2%–5.4% of the population. The econometric model shows that variables describing the evolution of production, population, and prices are statistically significant in relation to wheat imports. Egypt's wheat imports continue to increase even with rising prices, which is typical for developing countries. The war in Ukraine and associated commodity price increases have far-reaching implications for Africa's food security and supply systems.DiscussionEgypt's vulnerability to external influences, such as climate change, migration, rising commodity prices, and population growth, exacerbates the situation. Most African countries, including Egypt, struggle with the economic and social impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. They also face rising food and energy prices, conflicts between the world's largest food producers, and increasing poverty rates. The research findings confirm that Egypt is among the highly vulnerable countries due to the war in Ukraine and the disruption of agricultural supply chains

Qualitative and quantitative changes of agricultural land resources in the Czech Republic after 2000.

The main aim of the dissertation is to quantify changes in agricultural land use and propose some solutions to reduce or compensate for quantitative and qualitative degradation of the agricultural land resources in the Czech Republic. Data (WTO, FAO, CIMSC, RISWC, CSO, FADN) are processed by the geographic associations index, environmental stability index, regression and correlation analysis and multi criteria analysis. The quality of the agricultural land is decreased in southern Moravia and central Bohemia (Voltr, 2012). The quality farmland is mainly reduced in agriculturally valuable soils, i.e. for soils with higher average official price. There is the largest quantitative loss of farmland above all in South-Moravian region and Zlín Region. A distinction of five soil quality classes is made. The large amount of land falls from the highest classes of protection in those two regions. The cultivation of certain crops (wheat, barley, canola, corn, perennial forage, permanent grassland) is located without scant regard for the production of soil conditions. It is not a good way from the agronomical perspective in the Czech Republic. Homogenization of arable crops and their range adversely can affect the long-term productive ability. Although above average high percentage of leased farmland is in the monitored regions, its influence on the GARE change was not statistically confirmed. The irrigation systems should affect the quality of agricultural land. However, the construction of new irrigation systems and the usability of many existing systems is economically limited and influenced by form of ownership too. Subsidies for the sustainability of the production capabilities of agricultural land (Rural Development Program) are paid not for prevention, but as result of erosion processes only. In the dissertation was created multi criteria analysis includes criteria, which can be potential causes reduction of the soil quality. They can simultaneously act on the degradation of agricultural land

Evaluation of the Effect of Subsidies on the Production Capability of Land in Selected Regions of the Czech Republic

A decline in the production capability of land affects the creation of farmers’ revenues, the effective utilization of agricultural land, its qualitative and quantitative degradation, as well as the competitiveness of Czech agriculture. The results of the IAEI Prague research show that the annual economic loss due to a decline in the quality of land in the Czech Republic within the analyzed period of the years 2009-2012 is approximately CZK 385 mil. (MoA, 2012a). The aim of the article is to evaluate the potential connections between the change in the quality of land and selected subsidies that should primarily be affecting the effective utilization of agricultural land and the continual sustainability of its production capability. In the research, the methods of correlation and comparison were used. The relationship between the amount of paid subsidies (SAPS+TNA, AEM, LFA) and after changing the production ability of soils (difference GARE) was not confirmed. A statistically significant relationship was found only in the subsidies NATURE 2000

Impact of Agriculture and Energy on CO2 Emissions in Zambia

The world has experienced increased impacts of anthropogenic global warming due to increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which include carbon dioxide (CO2). Anthropogenic activities that contribute to CO2 emissions include deforestation, usage of fertilizers, and activities related to mining and energy production. The main objective of this paper was to assess the impacts of agriculture and energy production on CO2 emissions in Zambia. This research used econometric analysis, specifically the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test, to analyze the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP, electricity consumption, agricultural production, and industry value added. The results showed the presence of cointegration, where the variables of CO2 emissions, GDP, electricity, and agriculture converge to a long-run equilibrium at the rate of 74%. Further, there was a short-run causality towards CO2 emissions running from agriculture and the consumption of energy as indicated by the Wald test. This is the first study of its kind that empirically shows the impact of agricultural activities and energy consumption on the Zambian environment through their contribution to CO2 emissions at a macro (country) level. This paper also presents recommendations that are pertinent to mitigate these effects. To deescalate environmental degradation, we propose increasing the number of access points for multiple renewable energy sources across the country; discouraging deforestation, the usage of conventional fertilizers, and the burning of vegetation for fertilizers; encouraging afforestation and reforestation, in addition to providing subsidies, training, and financial support to farmers and entrepreneurs who decide to use environmentally friendly agricultural methods and renewable energy. This research highlights the serious impacts of anthropogenic activities on CO2 emissions. The study was intended to assist Zambian policymakers in formulating and implementing environmentally friendly policy measures or systems that will contribute towards environmental protection commitments and sustainable economic development

Assessment and Prediction of Maize Production Considering Climate Change by Extreme Learning Machine in Czechia

Machine learning algorithms have been applied in the agriculture field to forecast crop productivity. Previous studies mainly focused on the whole crop growth period while different time windows on yield prediction were still unknown. The entire growth period was separated into each month to assess their corresponding predictive ability by taking maize production (silage and grain) in Czechia. We present a thorough assessment of county-level maize yield prediction in Czechia using a machine learning algorithm (extreme learning machine (ELM)) and an extensive set of weather data and maize yields from 2002 to 2018. Results show that sunshine in June and water deficit in July were vastly influential factors for silage maize yield. The two primary climate parameters for grain maize yield are minimum temperature in September and water deficit in May. The average absolute relative deviation (AARD), root mean square error (RMSE), and coefficient (R2) of the proposed models are 6.565–32.148%, 1.006–1.071%, 0.641–0.716, respectively. Based on the results, silage yield will decrease by 1.367 t/ha (3.826% loss), and grain yield will increase by 0.337 t/ha (5.394% increase) when the max temperature in May increases by 2 °C. In conclusion, ELM models show a great potential application for predicting maize yield

Impact of Agriculture and Energy on CO₂ Emissions in Zambia

The world has experienced increased impacts of anthropogenic global warming due to increased emissions of greenhouse gases (GHGs), which include carbon dioxide (CO2). Anthropogenic activities that contribute to CO2 emissions include deforestation, usage of fertilizers, and activities related to mining and energy production. The main objective of this paper was to assess the impacts of agriculture and energy production on CO2 emissions in Zambia. This research used econometric analysis, specifically the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds Test, to analyze the relationship between CO2 emissions and GDP, electricity consumption, agricultural production, and industry value added. The results showed the presence of cointegration, where the variables of CO2 emissions, GDP, electricity, and agriculture converge to a long-run equilibrium at the rate of 74%. Further, there was a short-run causality towards CO2 emissions running from agriculture and the consumption of energy as indicated by the Wald test. This is the first study of its kind that empirically shows the impact of agricultural activities and energy consumption on the Zambian environment through their contribution to CO2 emissions at a macro (country) level. This paper also presents recommendations that are pertinent to mitigate these effects. To deescalate environmental degradation, we propose increasing the number of access points for multiple renewable energy sources across the country; discouraging deforestation, the usage of conventional fertilizers, and the burning of vegetation for fertilizers; encouraging afforestation and reforestation, in addition to providing subsidies, training, and financial support to farmers and entrepreneurs who decide to use environmentally friendly agricultural methods and renewable energy. This research highlights the serious impacts of anthropogenic activities on CO2 emissions. The study was intended to assist Zambian policymakers in formulating and implementing environmentally friendly policy measures or systems that will contribute towards environmental protection commitments and sustainable economic development

Services as a determinant of Botswana's economic sustainability

In 2015, the services sector contributed about 58 percent to the gross domestic product (GDP) in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which was a significant increase from the 47.6 percent observed in 2005, and a shift from the mining, agriculture, and manufacturing sector. This increase calls to support services as the catalyst for sustained economic development as indicated by the structural transformation and modernization theories. The main objective of this paper was to examine the relationship between and the impact of services on the economic development in Botswana and make recommendations on how Botswana can apply well-directed policies to improve its services sector and diversify its impact on other sectors and GDP, making it less reliant on mining which is vulnerable to price volatilities. The paper applied econometric modeling and results of the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag (ARDL) Bounds test for cointegration indicate that services and other industries services, agriculture, industry, mining, and investment impact GDP over the short and long run. These variables impacted GDP and converged to equilibrium at the speed of 46.89 percent, with a percent change in services in the short and long run impacting GDP by 0.328 and 0.241 percentages, respectively, and the outcome of the Wald test indicated causality from services to GDP growth. The services sectors have contributed over 40 percent to the country's GDP from 1995 to the present, though the sectors have not gone without challenges with limitations such as limited infrastructure development; poverty and inequality; unemployment of over 20 percent; disease, which has dampened productivity; and lack of proper governance and accountability, which has created a habitat for an increase in cases of corruption in state and private entities. The findings of the study with the lessons learned from other studies with similar findings recommend that the government of Botswana should formulate suitable policies and strategies for services diversification. This is by expanding the market for the sector in areas such as tourism that were impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic, escalating investments by instituting strategies to attract and grow domestic and foreign investments, and improve on management of institutions and resources.Provozně Ekonomická Fakulta, Česká Zemědělská Univerzita v Praze: 2022B0008Internal Grant Agency (IGA) of the Faculty of Economics and Management, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague [2022B0008

Agriculture as a Determinant of Zambian Economic Sustainability

For several years, the Zambian economy relied on the mining sector, which has been affected by fluctuations in commodity prices. The new century enhanced the calls for economic diversification, with the agricultural, manufacturing, and services sectors amongst those pronounced. This article focused on the role of agriculture in supporting the economy, particularly, the effect of agriculture on economic growth. The data analyzed was reviewed for the period 1983–2017. The ARDL Bounds Test was applied in order to meet the said objectives. The ECM results suggest that agriculture, manufacturing, services, and mining converge to an equilibrium and affect economic growth at the speed of adjustment of 90.6%, with the effect from agriculture, mining, and services being significant. The impact of agriculture on economic growth was significant in both the short-run and long-run, with coefficient unit effects of 0.428 and 0.342, respectively. The effects are strong because more than two-thirds of the rural population rely on farming, and agriculture has stood as a catalyst for food security. For the effect of agriculture to be much more profound, farmers must be supported with adequate infrastructure, accessibility to markets, farming inputs, better irrigation techniques, which would address the problem of reliance on rain, all of which were inconsistent in the last decade. Additionally, governments must ensure the institutionalization of food processing industries which add more value to the national income

Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports

This paper establishes the determinants of the export durability of agriculture products in Zambia with specific attention to maize, sugar, cotton, and tobacco between 1996 and 2019. We find that approximately 39% of Zambia’s agricultural products were exported beyond the first year of trading and less than 10% lasted up to 6 years of trading. The mean and median duration of exporting agricultural products in Zambia was 1.7 years and 1 year, respectively. Among the products, maize had the highest export duration after the first year of trading, followed by sugar, tobacco, and cotton. Results of the discrete-time logit and probit models with random effects revealed that the duration of total agricultural products was significantly impacted by common colony, contiguity, partner’s gross domestic product (GDP), Zambia’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports. Of these factors, colonial history and Zambia’s GDP reduced export duration, while contiguity, partner’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports increased the durability of exports in Zambia. The effect of Zambia’s GDP was uniform across all individual agricultural products. Total exports also significantly impacted all other agriculture products in a similar manner except for maize. Export durability for cotton was significantly impacted by the Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), while the export durability of tobacco was significantly impacted by distance, contiguity, and partner’s GDP. To increase the duration of agriculture exports, we propose the exporting of finished agriculture products (and not just raw materials), which have a higher market value and duration probability. Farmers also need support with export subsidies, increased foreign market access (especially to economies with higher buying power), and negotiated favorable trade terms in the region and around the globe

Durability of Zambia’s Agricultural Exports

This paper establishes the determinants of the export durability of agriculture products in Zambia with specific attention to maize, sugar, cotton, and tobacco between 1996 and 2019. We find that approximately 39% of Zambia’s agricultural products were exported beyond the first year of trading and less than 10% lasted up to 6 years of trading. The mean and median duration of exporting agricultural products in Zambia was 1.7 years and 1 year, respectively. Among the products, maize had the highest export duration after the first year of trading, followed by sugar, tobacco, and cotton. Results of the discrete-time logit and probit models with random effects revealed that the duration of total agricultural products was significantly impacted by common colony, contiguity, partner’s gross domestic product (GDP), Zambia’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports. Of these factors, colonial history and Zambia’s GDP reduced export duration, while contiguity, partner’s GDP, initial exports, and total exports increased the durability of exports in Zambia. The effect of Zambia’s GDP was uniform across all individual agricultural products. Total exports also significantly impacted all other agriculture products in a similar manner except for maize. Export durability for cotton was significantly impacted by the Regional Trade Agreements (RTAs), while the export durability of tobacco was significantly impacted by distance, contiguity, and partner’s GDP. To increase the duration of agriculture exports, we propose the exporting of finished agriculture products (and not just raw materials), which have a higher market value and duration probability. Farmers also need support with export subsidies, increased foreign market access (especially to economies with higher buying power), and negotiated favorable trade terms in the region and around the globe