A Bayesian inference approach for determining player abilities in football

We consider the task of determining a football player's ability for a given event type, for example, scoring a goal. We propose an interpretable Bayesian model which is fit using variational inference methods. We implement a Poisson model to capture occurrences of event types, from which we infer player abilities. Our approach also allows the visualisation of differences between players, for a specific ability, through the marginal posterior variational densities. We then use these inferred player abilities to extend the Bayesian hierarchical model of Baio and Blangiardo (2010) which captures a team's scoring rate (the rate at which they score goals). We apply the resulting scheme to the English Premier League, capturing player abilities over the 2013/2014 season, before using output from the hierarchical model to predict whether over or under 2.5 goals will be scored in a given game in the 2014/2015 season. This validates our model as a way of providing insights into team formation and the individual success of sports teams.Comment: 31 pages, 14 figure

Measurement of night sky brightness in southern Australia

Night sky brightness is a major source of noise both for Cherenkov telescopes as well as for wide-angle Cherenkov detectors. Therefore, it is important to know the level of night sky brightness at potential sites for future experiments. The measurements of night sky brightness presented here were carried out at Fowler's Gap, a research station in New South Wales, Australia, which is a potential site for the proposed TenTen Cherenkov telescope system and the planned wide-angle Cherenkov detector system HiSCORE. A portable instrument was developed and measurements of the night sky brightness were taken in February and August 2010. Brightness levels were measured for a range of different sky regions and in various spectral bands. The night sky brightness in the relevant wavelength regime for photomultipliers was found to be at the same level as measured in similar campaigns at the established Cherenkov telescope sites of Khomas, Namibia, and at La Palma. The brightness of dark regions in the sky is about 2 x 10^12 photons/(s sr m^2) between 300 nm and 650 nm, and up to four times brighter in bright regions of the sky towards the galactic plane. The brightness in V band is 21.6 magnitudes per arcsec^2 in the dark regions. All brightness levels are averaged over the field of view of the instrument of about 1.3 x 10^(-3) sr. The spectrum of the night sky brightness was found to be dominated by longer wavelengths, which allows to apply filters to separate the night sky brightness from the blue Cherenkov light. The possible gain in the signal to noise ratio was found to be up to 1.2, assuming an ideal low-pass filter.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures. Accepted for publication in Advances in Space Research as Proc to COSPAR 201

日本の大学生の英語授業におけるFacebook の利用意識と利用状況 : その意味

本研究では，日本人学生のFacebookに対する態度を調査するとともに，こうした代替ソーシャルネットワークプラットフォームを利用することによる言語学習への影響や授業での活用法についても調査した。本研究には，教育学部，法学部，工学部という英語を専門としない3つの学部の合計163名の日本人学生が2年間に渡り参加した。Facebookに対する態度のデータと実際の利用データは， 2つのアンケートによって収集された。その結果，多くの学生はグローバルで本格的なSNSを使った教室活動に価値を見出していたが，彼らの利用データと照らし合わせると，Facebookは必ずしも最良のプラットフォームとして選ばれていた訳ではないことが明らかになった。参加者のうち，今回のプロジェクト以外でFacebookを積極的に利用していると回答したのはわずか6％であった。他方，学生の回答によれば，約98％の学生はLINEを利用しており，73％の学生もYouTubeを頻繁に利用していた。更に，50％以上の学生がInstagramやTwitterを定期的に利用していた。本稿では，現在の文献を参考にしながら，これらの回答とその背景にある理由を詳細に検討した。This study examines not only Japanese students’ attitudes toward Facebook, but also the language learning implications and in-class teaching applications of utilizing alternative social network platforms. A total of 163 Japanese university students participated in the study, drawn across two years and from three non-English faculties, namely Education, Law, and Engineering. Attitudinal and usage data were collected via two questionnaires. It was found that many students did find global, authentic SNS classroom work to be valuable, but when mapped against their usage data, it was revealed that Facebook may not always be the best platform of choice. Only 6% of participants claimed to actively use Facebook outside of the current project, while approximately 98% of students stated that they use LINE, 73% use YouTube frequently, and more than 50% use Instagram and Twitter regularly. Drawing on current literature, the paper examines these responses in detail and the reasons behind them

Elliptic fibrations on cubic surfaces

We classify elliptic fibrations birational to a nonsingular, minimal cubic surface over a field of characteristic zero. Our proof is adapted to provide computational techniques for the analysis of such fibrations, and we describe an implementation of this analysis in computer algebra

SoundFields: A Virtual Reality Game Designed to Address Auditory Hypersensitivity in Individuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder

Individuals with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) are characterised as having impairments in social-emotional interaction and communication, alongside displaying repetitive behaviours and interests. Additionally, they can frequently experience difficulties in processing sensory information with particular prevalence in the auditory domain. Often triggered by everyday environmental sounds, auditory hypersensitivity can provoke self-regulatory fear responses such as crying and isolation from sounds. This paper presents SoundFields, an interactive virtual reality game designed to address this area by integrating exposure based therapy techniques into game mechanics and delivering target auditory stimuli to the player rendered via binaural based spatial audio. A pilot study was conducted with six participants diagnosed with ASD who displayed hypersensitivity to specific sounds to evaluate the use of SoundFields as a tool to reduce levels of anxiety associated with identified problematic sounds. During the course of the investigation participants played the game weekly over four weeks and all participants actively engaged with the virtual reality (VR) environment and enjoyed playing the game. Following this period, a comparison of pre- and post-study measurements showed a significant decrease in anxiety linked to target auditory stimuli. The study results therefore suggest that SoundFields could be an effective tool for helping individuals with autism manage auditory hypersensitivity