How Likely is the Consensus Projection of Oil Production Doubling in the Persian Gulf?

We examine a consensus in most recent long-term projections of the world oil market that OPEC oil capacity and production will increase rapidly over the next two decades to unprecedented levels, more than doubling in the Persian Gulf by 2020. Such projections are not based on behavioral analysis of Gulf countries' decisions; they are merely the calculated residual demand for OPEC oil, the difference between projected world oil demand and non-OPEC supply. We focus especially on the detailed projections of the International Energy Outlook 2001 (IEO-2001) by the Energy Information Administration within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Their projections exhibit only minimal price-responsiveness, which leads to conclusion that the underlying model is internally inconsistent. If it accurately represents the price-responsiveness of world oil demand and non-OPEC supply, then both the Reference Case and the High Price Case project future oil prices that are far too low - because these cases rely on supply behavior by Gulf producers that is not in their own self-interest. The IEO-2001 projections of world oil prices could be reasonable, but only if world oil demand and/or non-OPEC supply are much more price-responsive than are represented in their numerical projections. Then, using an updated version of the model from Gately (1995), we demonstrate that the effect of greater priceresponsiveness for world oil demand and non-OPEC supply is to make faster output growth - not higher prices - the reliable path to higher OPEC revenue. We conclude with comments about the plausibility of consensus projections. Oil price in the range $20 to$25 (1999 $/barrel) is plausible, but it requires substantial growth in non-OPEC supply and much greater priceresponsiveness than is assumed in IEO-2001. Projections that Persian Gulf capacity and output will double by 2020, however, seem very implausible. It requires not only that Gulf producers experience high price-responsiveness to any slowdown in their output growth, but also that aggressive output growth must make them significantly better off than more modest expansion efforts. However, it was shown in Gately (1995) that discounted export revenue for the Gulf countries is relatively insensitive over a fairly wide range of output-growth strategies: modest output growth will do just about as well as aggressive growth.OPEC OIL OUTPUT; OPEC CAPACITY; OIL PRICE PROJECTIONS

The Asymmetric Effects of Changes in Price and Income on Energy and Oil Demand

This paper estimates the effects on energy and oil demand of changes in income and oil prices, for 96 of the world's largest countries, in per-capita terms. We examine three important issues: the asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in oil prices; the asymmetric effects on demand of increases and decreases in income; and the different speeds of demand adjustment to changes in price and in income. Its main conclusions are the following: (1) OECD demand responds much more to increases in oil prices than to decreases; ignoring this asymmetric price response will bias downward the estimated income elasticity; (2) demand's response to income decreases in many non-OECD countries is not necessarily symmetric to its response to income increases; ignoring this asymmetric income response will bias the estimated income elasticity; (3) the speed of demand adjustment is faster to changes in income than to changes in price; ignoring this difference will bias upward the estimated response to income changes. Using correctly specified equations for energy and oil demand, the long-run elasticity for increases in income is about 0.55 for OECD energy and oil, and 1.0 or higher for Non-OECD Oil Exporters, Income Growers and perhaps all Non-OECD countries. These income elasticity estimates are significantly higher than current estimates used by the US Department of Energy. Our estimates for the OECD countries are also higher than those estimated recently by Schmalensee-Stoker-Judson (1998) and Holtz-Eakin and Selden (1995), who ignore the asymmetric effects of prices on demand. Higher income elasticities, of course, will increase projections of energy and oil demand, and of carbon dioxide emissions.ENERGY DEMAND; OIL DEMAND; ASYMMETRY; IRREVERSIBILITY; INCOME ELASTICITY

Review of Perspectives on Self and Comunity in George Eliot: Dorothea\u27s Window

This is a modest book, edited by three people who are so modest that they reveal nothing at all about their identities. It is possible to discover from a footnote on p.159 that it is a product of a conference on George Eliot although further details of that event remain undisclosed. Two of its contributors, however, are well known in George Eliot circles: Barbara Hardy and Felicia Bonaparte. Their essays are certainly worth reading while all the other contributions have something new to say about Eliot\u27s work even if they are by today\u27s standards under-theorized. One looks in vain in the index for any reference to Bakhtin, Barthes, or Hillis Miller, Eagleton, lameson or the French feminists (to cite but a few of the names one would normally expect to find). The book could almost have been written in the 1960s (it is difficult to avoid the suspicion that some of the essays were). But it is not without its merits. The essays by Barbara Hardy and Felicia Bonaparte which open and close the book are characteristically impressive performances. Hardy explores the oft-noted similes and metaphors associated with windows in the novel, paying careful attention to detail and coming down strongly on lesser critics who make the mistake of locating Dorothea\u27s vision of the \u27largeness of the world\u27 in the \u27pearly light\u27 of dawn in chapter 80 in the boudoir rather than the marital bedroom. Bonaparte maps the rivers of passion and time in The Mill on the Floss, charting the multiple worlds created by the complex musical and mythological allusions in the novel and teasing out the antagonism of valid claims which comprise the tragedy of this novel

Cisplatin and taxol activate different signal pathways regulating cellular injury-induced expression of GADD153.

Signal transduction pathways activated by injury play a central role in coordinating the cellular responses that determine whether a cell survives or dies. GADD153 expression increases markedly in response to some types of cellular injury and the product of this gene causes cell cycle arrest. Using induction of GADD153 as a model, we have investigated the activation of the cellular injury response after treatment with taxol and cisplatin (cDDP). Activation of the GADD153 promoter coupled to the luciferase gene and transfected into human ovarian carcinoma 2008 cells correlated well with the increase in endogenous GADD153 mRNA after treatment with taxol but not after treatment with cDDP. Following treatment with cDDP, the increase in endogenous GADD153 mRNA was 10-fold greater than the increase in GADD153 promoter activity. Likewise, at equitoxic levels of exposure (IC80), cDDP produced a 5-fold greater increase in endogenous GADD153 mRNA than taxol. The tyrosine kinase inhibitor tyrophostin B46 had no significant effect on the ability of taxol to activate the GADD153 promoter, but inhibited activation of the GADD153 promoter by cDDP in a concentration-dependent manner. Tyrphostin B46 synergistically enhanced the cytotoxicity of cisplatin; however, the same exposure had no significant effect on the cytotoxicity of taxol. We conclude that (1) taxol and cDDP activate GADD153 promoter activity through different mechanisms; (2) the signal transduction pathway mediating induction by cDDP involves a tyrosine kinase inhibitable by tyrphostin B46; and (3) that inhibition of this signal transduction pathway by tyrphostin synergistically enhances cDDP toxicity

The Imperfect Price-Reversibility of World Demand

demand ; economic models ; trade

Oil Demands in the US and Japan: why the Demand Reductions Caused by the Price Increases of the 1970's won't be Reversed by the Price Declines of the 1980's

energy ; production ; efficiency ; costs ; taxes

Virtual worlds as a tool to facilitate weight management for young people.

Childhood obesity is a serious problem in the UK, with around 20% of children aged 10-11 being overweight or obese. Lifestyle interventions can be effective, but there is limited evidence of their effectiveness in delivering sustained weight loss. The present research explored potential of web-based, 3-dimensional virtual worlds (VWs) for facilitation of weight-management, well-being and patient and public involvement (PPI) for young people. Attendees of a weight management camp took part in induction sessions for use of the VW of Second Life. All participants successfully learned how to interact with one another and navigate the virtual environment. Participant appraisals of Second Life were varied. Some found it complicated and difficult to use, and some found it fun and the majority stated that they would choose to use VWs again. There is considerable potential for use of VWs to promote weight management, and Second Life or a similar VW could be used to deliver this. Potential barriers include members of the target sample having limited access to computers with necessary system requirements for running VWs, and that some may find VW-based educational experiences unappealing or challenging to navigate. For some however, VWs may provide a useful mode for provision of education, PPI and support relating to weight management

Anti-Tac(Fv)-PE40, a single chain antibody Pseudomonas fusion protein directed at interleukin 2 receptor bearing cells

Anti-Tac(Fv)-PE40 is a chimeric single chain immunotoxin in which anti-Tac variable heavy and light chains held together by a peptide linker are attached to PE40, a truncated form of Pseudomonas exotoxin. This molecule was shown to be extremely cytotoxic for interleukin 2 (IL2) receptor bearing cells in tissue culture (Chaudhary, V. K., Queen, C., Junghans, R. P., Waldmann, T. A., FitzGerald, D. J., and Pastan, I. (1989) Nature 339, 394-397). Here we describe various forms of anti-Tac(Fv)-PE40 protein in which the order of the variable domains of anti-Tac has been switched and also three different types of peptide linkers have been used. All these proteins were purified to near homogeneity and were found to have similar cytotoxic activities against various human cells expressing the p55 subunit of the IL2 receptor. Anti-Tac(Fv)-PE40 was also found to have a very potent suppressive activity against phytohemagglutinin-activated human lymphoblasts and in a human mixed lymphocyte reaction. Anti-Tac(Fv)-PE40 appeared in the blood rapidly in mice after intraperitoneal administration and could be detected in the blood for up to 8 h. Anti-Tac(Fv)-PE40 warrants evaluation as an anti-tumor and immunosuppressive agent in humans

The Imperfect Price-Reversibility of Non-Transportation Oil Demand in the OECD

oil industry ; demand