Evolving Tropical Cyclone Tracks in the North Atlantic in a Warming Climate

Tropical cyclone (TC) track characteristics in a changing climate remain uncertain. Here, we investigate the genesis, tracks, and termination of \u3e35,000 synthetic TCs traveling within 250 km of New York City (NYC) from the pre‐industrial era (850–1800 CE) to the modern era (1970–2005 CE) to the future (2080–2100 CE). Under a very high‐emissions scenario (RCP8.5), TCs are more likely to form closer to the United States (U.S.) southeast coast (\u3e15% increase), terminate in the northeastern Atlantic (\u3e6% increase), and move most slowly along the U.S. Atlantic coast (\u3e15% increase) from the pre‐industrial to future. Under our modeled scenarios, TCs are more likely to travel within 100 km of Boston, MA, USA (p = 0.01) and Norfolk, VA, USA (p = 0.05) than within 100 km of NYC in the future. We identify reductions in the time between genesis and the time when TCs come within 100 km of NYC, Boston, or Norfolk, as well as increased duration of TC impacts from individual storms at all three cities in the future

Comparison of the emissions of current expendable launch vehicles and future spaceplanes

This paper compares the environmental impact of two types of launch vehicles, an expendable vertical launcher (Delta IV) and a conceptual SSTO spaceplane. A realistic trajectory for the spaceplane is generated using a multiple-shooting trajectory optimisation method, which integrates physical models and generates an optimal control law minimising the fuel consumption and the emissions of the flight. These were compared with the emissions from a standard Delta IV trajectory. The launch was to a 200 km circular LEO at 27.5° inclination. The chemical investigated is H2O, which contributes to the depletion of the ozone layer in the stratosphere. The study shows that for the ascent trajectory the spaceplane produces a total of 5.0143 x 105 kg of H2O, compared with 2.24 x 105 kg for the Delta IV. The spaceplane has a peak production altitude in the sensitive lower stratosphere, compared to the much lower peak production altitude of the Delta IV

Surgical wound infection: epidemiology, pathogenesis, diagnosis and management

Surgical wound infection remains a significant problem following an operation, although surveillance for such infections remains a challenge exacerbated by early discharge and outpatient surgery. The riskof such infections isdetermined by technical problems with the operation, particularly bleeding, the amount of devitalized tissue created, and the need for drains within the wound, as well as such metabolic factors as obesity and diabetes. Perioperative antibiotic prophylaxis can decrease the incidence of such infections further, but a technically perfect operation is even more important

Simulation of the Recent Multidecadal Increase of Atlantic Hurricane Activity Using an 18-km-Grid Regional Model

In this study, a new modeling framework for simulating Atlantic hurricane activity is introduced. The model is an 18-km-grid nonhydrostatic regional model, run over observed specified SSTs and nudged toward observed time-varying large-scale atmospheric conditions (Atlantic domain wavenumbers 0-2) derived from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) reanalyses. Using this perfect large-scale model approach for 27 recent August-October seasons (1980-2006), it is found that the model successfully reproduces the observed multidecadal increase in numbers of Atlantic hurricanes and several other tropical cyclone (TC) indices over this period. The correlation of simulated versus observed hurricane activity by year varies from 0.87 for basin-wide hurricane counts to 0.41 for U.S. landfalling hurricanes. For tropical storm count, accumulated cyclone energy, and TC power dissipation indices the correlation is similar to 0.75, for major hurricanes the correlation is 0.69, and for U.S. landfalling tropical storms, the correlation is 0.57. The model occasionally simulates hurricanes intensities of up to category 4 (similar to 942 mb) in terms of central pressure, although the surface winds (\u3c 47 in s-1) do not exceed category-2 intensity. On interannual time scales, the model reproduces the observed ENSO-Atlantic hurricane covariation reasonably well. Some notable aspects of the highly contrasting 2005 and 2006 seasons are well reproduced, although the simulated activity during the 2006 core season was excessive. The authors conclude that the model appears to be a useful tool for exploring mechanisms of hurricane variability in the Atlantic (e.g., shear versus potential intensity contributions). The model may be capable of making useful simulations/projections of pre-1980 or twentieth-century Atlantic hurricane activity. However, the reliability of these projections will depend on obtaining reliable large-scale atmospheric and SST conditions from sources external to the model

The Ursinus Weekly, February 17, 1964

Preparations in final stage for Four Freshmen concert • Asian students: APO will begin to collect books for foundation • Evolution and world federalism to be topic of Dr. Charles Price • Art exhibit set for weekend • Summer job opportunities • Three sororities begin Spring rush • Traditional Lorelei turnabout held; Dance king crowned, Whitians presented • Freshman pre-med views Christian concept of unity • Women to receive colors Thursday • English Club to hear Harvard poet • Editorial: A bit of discretion, please; Ursinus big time; Apology • Sub-species new theory of race evolution • Review of books • Letters to the editor • After one week the acting Dean: Dr. Vorrath speaks • Lincoln University students featured at Kaffee Klatsch: A well-attended affair • Greek gleanings • Impending crisis in our American railroads: Part two • Grapplers decision Hopkins after bowing at E-town • UC cagers success at PMC, bunglers at Swarthmore • WC drops Ursinus cagettes, 50-31 • Women trounce opponents in season openerhttps://digitalcommons.ursinus.edu/weekly/1264/thumbnail.jp

Changing impacts of Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone tsunamis in California under future sea-level rise

The amplification of coastal hazards such as distant-source tsunamis under future relative sea-level rise (RSLR) is poorly constrained. In southern California, the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone has been identified as an earthquake source region of particular concern for a worst-case scenario distant-source tsunami. Here, we explore how RSLR over the next century will influence future maximum nearshore tsunami heights (MNTH) at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. Earthquake and tsunami modeling combined with local probabilistic RSLR projections show the increased potential for more frequent, relatively low magnitude earthquakes to produce distant-source tsunamis that exceed historically observed MNTH. By 2100, under RSLR projections for a high-emissions representative concentration pathway (RCP8.5), the earthquake magnitude required to produce \u3e1 m MNTH falls from ~Mw9.1 (required today) to Mw8.0, a magnitude that is ~6.7 times more frequent along the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone

Pasts and pagan practices: moving beyond Stonehenge

Theorizing the past is not restricted to archaeology and interpretations of 'past' both influence and are themselves constituted within politicized understandings of self, community and in certain instances, spirituality. 'The past in the imagination of the present' is appropriated, variously, to give meaning to the present or to justify actions and interpret experiences. Summer solstice at Stonehenge, with an estimated 21,000 celebrants in 2005, is only the most publicized appropriation (by pagans and other adherents of alternative spirituality and partying) of a 'sacred site'; and conflicts and negotiations occurring throughout Britain are represented in popular and academic presentations of this 'icon of Britishness'. This paper presents work from the Sacred Sites, Contested Rites/Rights Project (http://www.sacredsites.org.uk) project, a collaboration of archaeology and anthropology informed by pagan and alternative approaches and standpoints investigating and theorizing discourse and practice of heritage management and pagan site users. Whether in negotiations around the Stonehenge solstice access or in dealing with numerous other sites, boundaries between groups or discourses are not clearly drawn - discursive communities merge and re-emerge. But clearly 'past' and 'site' are increasingly important within today's Britain, even as television archaeology increases its following, and pagan numbers continue to grow.</p

Impact of climate change on New York City’s coastal flood hazard: Increasing flood heights from the preindustrial to 2300 CE

The flood hazard in New York City depends on both storm surges and rising sea levels. We combine modeled storm surges with probabilistic sea-level rise projections to assess future coastal inundation in New York City from the preindustrial era through 2300 CE. The storm surges are derived from large sets of synthetic tropical cyclones, downscaled from RCP8.5 simulations from three CMIP5 models. The sea-level rise projections account for potential partial collapse of the Antarctic ice sheet in assessing future coastal inundation. CMIP5 models indicate that there will be minimal change in storm-surge heights from 2010 to 2100 or 2300, because the predicted strengthening of the strongest storms will be compensated by storm tracks moving offshore at the latitude of New York City. However, projected sea-level rise causes overall flood heights associated with tropical cyclones in New York City in coming centuries to increase greatly compared with preindustrial or modern flood heights. For the various sea-level rise scenarios we consider, the 1-in-500-y flood event increases from 3.4 m above mean tidal level during 1970–2005 to 4.0–5.1 m above mean tidal level by 2080–2100 and ranges from 5.0–15.4 m above mean tidal level by 2280–2300. Further, we find that the return period of a 2.25-m flood has decreased from ∼500 y before 1800 to ∼25 y during 1970–2005 and further decreases to ∼5 y by 2030–2045 in 95% of our simulations. The 2.25-m flood height is permanently exceeded by 2280–2300 for scenarios that include Antarctica’s potential partial collapse

Plasmapheresis to remove amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles for treating the post‐COVID‐19 condition

Background The post‐COVID‐19 condition (PCC) consists of a wide array of symptoms including fatigue and impaired daily living. People seek a wide variety of approaches to help them recover. A new belief, arising from a few laboratory studies, is that 'microclots' cause the symptoms of PCC. This belief has been extended outside these studies, suggesting that to recover people need plasmapheresis (an expensive process where blood is filtered outside the body). We appraised the laboratory studies, and it was clear that the term 'microclots' is incorrect to describe the phenomenon being described. The particles are amyloid and include fibrin(ogen); amyloid is not a part of a thrombus which is a mix of fibrin mesh and platelets. Initial acute COVID‐19 infection is associated with clotting abnormalities; this review concerns amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in PCC only. We have reported here our appraisal of laboratory studies investigating the presence of amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in PCC, and of evidence that plasmapheresis may be an effective therapy to remove amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles for treating PCC. Objectives Laboratory studies review To summarize and appraise the research reports on amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles related to PCC. Randomized controlled trials review To assess the evidence of the safety and efficacy of plasmapheresis to remove amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in individuals with PCC from randomized controlled trials. Search methods Laboratory studies review We searched for all relevant laboratory studies up to 27 October 2022 using a comprehensive search strategy which included the search terms ‘COVID’, ‘amyloid’, ‘fibrin’, ‘fibrinogen’. Randomized controlled trials review We searched the following databases on 21 October 2022: Cochrane COVID‐19 Study Register; MEDLINE (Ovid); Embase (Ovid); and BIOSIS Previews (Web of Science). We also searched the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform and ClinicalTrials.gov for trials in progress. Selection criteria Laboratory studies review Laboratory studies that investigate the presence of amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in plasma samples from patients with PCC were eligible. This included studies with or without controls. Randomized controlled trials review Studies were eligible if they were of randomized controlled design and investigated the effectiveness or safety of plasmapheresis for removing amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles for treating PCC. Data collection and analysis Two review authors applied study inclusion criteria to identify eligible studies and extracted data. Laboratory studies review We assessed the risk of bias of included studies using pre‐developed methods for laboratory studies. We planned to perform synthesis without meta‐analysis (SWiM) as described in our protocol. Randomized controlled trials review We planned that if we identified any eligible studies, we would assess risk of bias and report results with 95% confidence intervals. The primary outcome was recovery, measured using the Post‐COVID‐19 Functional Status Scale (absence of symptoms related to the illness, ability to do usual daily activities, and a return to a previous state of health and mind). Main results Laboratory studies review We identified five laboratory studies. Amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles were identified in participants across all studies, including those with PCC, healthy individuals, and those with diabetes. The results of three studies were based on visual images of amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles, which did not quantify the amount or size of the particles identified. Formal risk of bias assessment showed concerns in how the studies were conducted and reported. This means the results were insufficient to support the belief that amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles are associated with PCC, or to determine whether there is a difference in the amount or size of amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in the plasma of people with PCC compared to healthy controls. Randomized controlled trials review We identified no trials meeting our inclusion criteria. Authors' conclusions In the absence of reliable research showing that amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles contribute to the pathophysiology of PCC, there is no rationale for plasmapheresis to remove amyloid fibrin(ogen) particles in PCC. Plasmapheresis for this indication should not be used outside the context of a well‐conducted randomized controlled trial

Evidence for directional selection at a novel major histocompatibility class I marker in wild common frogs (Rana temporaria) exposed to a viral pathogen (Ranavirus).

(c) 2009 Teacher et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.Whilst the Major Histocompatibility Complex (MHC) is well characterized in the anuran Xenopus, this region has not previously been studied in another popular model species, the common frog (Rana temporaria). Nor, to date, have there been any studies of MHC in wild amphibian host-pathogen systems. We characterise an MHC class I locus in the common frog, and present primers to amplify both the whole region, and specifically the antigen binding region. As no more than two expressed haplotypes were found in over 400 clones from 66 individuals, it is likely that there is a single class I locus in this species. This finding is consistent with the single class I locus in Xenopus, but contrasts with the multiple loci identified in axolotls, providing evidence that the diversification of MHC class I into multiple loci likely occurred after the Caudata/Anura divergence (approximately 350 million years ago) but before the Ranidae/Pipidae divergence (approximately 230 mya). We use this locus to compare wild populations of common frogs that have been infected with a viral pathogen (Ranavirus) with those that have no history of infection. We demonstrate that certain MHC supertypes are associated with infection status (even after accounting for shared ancestry), and that the diseased populations have more similar supertype frequencies (lower F(ST)) than the uninfected. These patterns were not seen in a suite of putatively neutral microsatellite loci. We interpret this pattern at the MHC locus to indicate that the disease has imposed selection for particular haplotypes, and hence that common frogs may be adapting to the presence of Ranavirus, which currently kills tens of thousands of amphibians in the UK each year