Gathering the evidence and identifying opportunities for future research in climate, heat and health in South Africa : the role of the South African Medical Research Council

Abstract: Background. A changing climate is likely to have widespread and varying impacts on ecosystems and human health. South Africa (SA) is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, given the projected increases in temperature, and changes in the amount and patterns of rainfall. Moreover, SA’s vulnerability is exacerbated by extreme inequality and poverty. To prepare for the impacts of climate change and to ensure timeous adaptation, a perspective is given on essential heat and health research in the country. Objectives. To gather studies conducted by the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC)’s Environment and Health Research Unit (EHRU) to illustrate the range of possible research key areas in the climate, heat and health domain and to present future research priorities. Methods. Studies conducted by the SAMRC’s EHRU were gathered and used to illustrate the range of possible research key areas in the climate, heat and health domain. Using national and international published and grey literature, and tapping into institutional research experiences, an overview of research findings to date and future research priorities were developed. Results. Heat and health-related research has focussed on key settings, for example, schools, homes and outdoor work places, and vulnerable groups such as infants and children, the elderly and people with pre-existing diseases. The need to address basic needs and services provision was emphasised as an important priority. Conclusions. High and low temperatures in SA are already associated with mortality annually; these impacts are likely to increase with a changing climate. Critical cross-sectoral research will aid in understanding and preparing for temperature extremes in SA

Seasonal temperature prediction skill over Southern Africa and human health

An assessment of probabilistic prediction skill of seasonal temperature extremes over southern African is presented. Verification results are presented for six run-on seasons; September to November, October to December, November to January, December to February, January to March and February to April over a 15- year retroactive period. Comparisons are drawn between downscaled seasonal 850 hPa geopotential height field forecasts of a two-tiered system versus downscaled height forecasts from a coupled ocean-atmosphere system. The ECHAM4.5 atmospheric general circulation model is used for both systems; in the one-tiered system the ECHAM4.5 is directly coupled to the ocean model MOM3, and the two-tiered system the ECHAM4.5 is forced with Van den Dool SST hindcasts. Model output statistic equations are developed using canonical correlation analysis to reduce system deficiencies. Probabilistic verification is conducted using the relative operating characteristic (ROC) and reliability diagram. The coupled model performs best in capturing seasonal maximum temperature extremes. Seasons demonstrating the highest ROC scores coincide with the period of highest seasonal temperatures found over southern Africa. The above-normal category of the one-tiered system indicates the highest skill in predicting maximum temperature extremes, implying the coupled model skilfully predicts when there is a high likelihood of experiencing extremely high seasonal maximum temperatures during mid to late summer. The downscaled coupled maximum temperature hindcasts are additionally evaluated in terms of their monetary value and quality to the general public. The seasonal forecast system presented here should be able to reduce risks in decision making by the health industry in southern Africa.http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/journal/10.1002/(ISSN)1469-80802015-10-31hb201

Regional projections of extreme apparent temperature days in Africa and the related potential risk to human health

Regional climate modelling was used to produce high resolution climate projections for Africa, under a “business as usual scenario”, that were translated into potential health impacts utilizing a heat index that relates apparent temperature to health impacts. The continent is projected to see increases in the number of days when health may be adversely affected by increasing maximum apparent temperatures (AT) due to climate change. Additionally, climate projections indicate that the increases in AT results in a moving of days from the less severe to the more severe Symptom Bands. The analysis of the rate of increasing temperatures assisted in identifying areas, such as the East African highlands, where health may be at increasing risk due to both large increases in the absolute number of hot days, and due to the high rate of increase. The projections described here can be used by health stakeholders in Africa to assist in the development of appropriate public health interventions to mitigate the potential health impacts from climate change.A Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) Parliamentary Grant.http://www.mdpi.com/journal/ijerpham201

Whole-genome sequencing reveals host factors underlying critical COVID-19

Critical COVID-19 is caused by immune-mediated inflammatory lung injury. Host genetic variation influences the development of illness requiring critical care1 or hospitalization2,3,4 after infection with SARS-CoV-2. The GenOMICC (Genetics of Mortality in Critical Care) study enables the comparison of genomes from individuals who are critically ill with those of population controls to find underlying disease mechanisms. Here we use whole-genome sequencing in 7,491 critically ill individuals compared with 48,400 controls to discover and replicate 23 independent variants that significantly predispose to critical COVID-19. We identify 16 new independent associations, including variants within genes that are involved in interferon signalling (IL10RB and PLSCR1), leucocyte differentiation (BCL11A) and blood-type antigen secretor status (FUT2). Using transcriptome-wide association and colocalization to infer the effect of gene expression on disease severity, we find evidence that implicates multiple genes—including reduced expression of a membrane flippase (ATP11A), and increased expression of a mucin (MUC1)—in critical disease. Mendelian randomization provides evidence in support of causal roles for myeloid cell adhesion molecules (SELE, ICAM5 and CD209) and the coagulation factor F8, all of which are potentially druggable targets. Our results are broadly consistent with a multi-component model of COVID-19 pathophysiology, in which at least two distinct mechanisms can predispose to life-threatening disease: failure to control viral replication; or an enhanced tendency towards pulmonary inflammation and intravascular coagulation. We show that comparison between cases of critical illness and population controls is highly efficient for the detection of therapeutically relevant mechanisms of disease

Man made radionuclides in the environment In the environment of Dumfries and Galloway

SIGLEAvailable from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:3614.604(DOE/RW--89.015) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreGBUnited Kingdo

Artificial radioactivity in the coasts of Northern Ireland

Report also known as AERE-R--13443Available from British Library Document Supply Centre- DSC:3614.604(DOE/RW--89.055) / BLDSC - British Library Document Supply CentreSIGLEGBUnited Kingdo

Gathering the evidence and identifying opportunities for future research in climate, heat and health in South Africa : the role of the South African Medical Research Council

BACKGROUND: A changing climate is likely to have widespread and varying impacts on ecosystems and human health. South Africa (SA) is particularly vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, given the projected increases in temperature, and changes in the amount and patterns of rainfall. Moreover, SA's vulnerability is exacerbated by extreme inequality and poverty. To prepare for the impacts of climate change and to ensure timeous adaptation, a perspective is given on essential heat and health research in the country. OBJECTIVES: To gather studies conducted by the South African Medical Research Council (SAMRC)'s Environment and Health Research Unit (EHRU) to illustrate the range of possible research key areas in the climate, heat and health domain and to present future research priorities. METHODS: Studies conducted by the SAMRC's EHRU were gathered and used to illustrate the range of possible research key areas in the climate, heat and health domain. Using national and international published and grey literature, and tapping into institutional research experiences, an overview of research findings to date and future research priorities were developed. RESULTS: Heat and health-related research has focussed on key settings, for example, schools, homes and outdoor work places, and vulnerable groups such as infants and children, the elderly and people with pre-existing diseases. The need to address basic needs and services provision was emphasised as an important priority. CONCLUSIONS: High and low temperatures in SA are already associated with mortality annually; these impacts are likely to increase with a changing climate. Critical cross-sectoral research will aid in understanding and preparing for temperature extremes in SA.http://www.samj.org.zapm2020Geography, Geoinformatics and MeteorologySchool of Health Systems and Public Health (SHSPH

Evaluation of climate model aerosol seasonal and spatial variability over Africa using AERONET

The sensitivity of climate models to the characterization of African aerosol particles is poorly understood. Africa is a major source of dust and biomass burning aerosols and this represents an important research gap in understanding the impact of aerosols on radiative forcing of the climate system. Here we evaluate the current representation of aerosol particles in the Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) with ground-based remote retrievals across Africa, and additionally provide an analysis of observed aerosol optical depth at 550 nm (AOD550 nm) and Ångström exponent data from 34 Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) sites. Analysis of the 34 long-term AERONET sites confirms the importance of dust and biomass burning emissions to the seasonal cycle and magnitude of AOD550 nm across the continent and the transport of these emissions to regions outside of the continent. In general, CCAM captures the seasonality of the AERONET data across the continent. The magnitude of modeled and observed multiyear monthly average AOD550 nm overlap within 1 standard deviation of each other for at least 7 months at all sites except the Réunion St Denis Island site (Réunion St. Denis). The timing of modeled peak AOD550 nm in southern Africa occurs 1 month prior to the observed peak, which does not align with the timing of maximum fire counts in the region. For the western and northern African sites, it is evident that CCAM currently overestimates dust in some regions while others (e.g., the Arabian Peninsula) are better characterized. This may be due to overestimated dust lifetime, or that the characterization of the soil for these areas needs to be updated with local information. The CCAM simulated AOD550 nm for the global domain is within the spread of previously published results from CMIP5 and AeroCom experiments for black carbon, organic carbon, and sulfate aerosols. The model’s performance provides confidence for using the model to estimate largescale regional impacts of African aerosols on radiative forcing, but local feedbacks between dust aerosols and climate over northern Africa and the Mediterranean may be overestimated.This work was supported by NRF CSUR grant number 9157 and a CSIR Parliamentary Grant. Hannah M. Horowitz was funded through the NSF GROW with USAID RI Fellowship. We thank the PIs and their staff for establishing and maintaining the 34 AERONET sites used in this study.http://www.atmospheric-chemistry-and-physics.netam2018Geography, Geoinformatics and Meteorolog