Holding periods and investment performance: analysing UK office returns 1983-2003

Drawing on a unique database of office properties constructed for Gerald Eve by IPD, this paper examines the holding periods of individual office properties sold between 1983 and 2003. It quantifies the holding periods of sold properties and examines the relationship between the holding period and investment performance. Across the range of holding periods, excess returns (performance relative to the market) are evenly distributed. There are as many winners as there are losers. The distribution of excess returns over different holding periods is widely spread with the risk of under-performance greater over short holding periods. Over the longer term, excess performance is confined to a narrow range and individual returns are more likely to perform in line with the market as a whole

Confidence assessment in the teaching of basic science

A scheme is described for including information about confidence in the computer‐based assessment of students. After each answer, students declare a confidence level of 1, 2, or 3. If the answer is correct, then this is the mark awarded. If not, marks of 0, ‐2, or ‐6 are awarded Students do well on this scheme if they can discriminate between when they are sure of correct answers and when they are partly guessing. In self‐assessment, students are trained to reflect on their reasoning, and to develop the skills of correct confidence judgement. The task of writing tests is simplified, since it becomes less important to ask complex questions. Simple direct questions discriminate better between students than they do with ordinary marking. Good students answer correctly with high confidence, while weak students moderate their confidence level if they know they are uncertain, or else lose heavily when they make mistakes. Preliminary data are presented from self‐assessment trials amongst medical students

Energy Efficency In Housing: An Evaluation Of The Importance Of Increased Wall Thickness

In April 2002 revisions to Part L of the Building Regulations were introduced, to improve the energy efficiency of UK buildings. For many housing schemes using traditional masonry cavity walls this may result in an increased cavity width and a consequent increase in the dwelling footprint. The potential impact that this may have on site utilisation, particularly in the light of planning guidance aimed at increasing site densities, has raised concern within the development community. Developers argue that even minor increases in wall thickness may reduce the number of dwellings on sites, thereby reducing overall profitability. This paper analyses these concerns by investigating the impact of increased wall thickness in the context of two developments constructed in the late 1990s. The existing site layouts were analysed under different footprint assumptions and an assessment made of the capacity of the layout to accommodate footprint increases. The theoretical analysis demonstrates that dwelling numbers are unlikely to be reduced as a result of the standards introduced in 2002. It is only when anticipated future improved standards are applied that dwelling numbers may be affected. However, the paper demonstrates also that dwelling loss is not inevitable and that it is perfectly possible to produce very low energy housing, while still achieving densities in line with planning requirements and with no reduction in the overall quality of a scheme. In the end it is not a matter of wall thickness but of good site layout and good house type design

Short-range Magnetic interactions in the Spin-Ice compound Ho2_{2}Ti2_{2}O7_{7}

Magnetization and susceptibility studies on single crystals of the pyrochlore Ho$_{2}$Ti$_{2}$O$_{7}$ are reported for the first time. Magnetization isotherms are shown to be qualitatively similar to that predicted by the nearest neighbor spin-ice model. Below the lock-in temperature, $T^{\ast }\simeq 1.97$ K, magnetization is consistent with the locking of spins along [111] directions in a specific two-spins-in, two-spins-out arrangement. Below $T^{\ast}$ the magnetization for $B||[111]$ displays a two step behavior signalling the breaking of the ice rules.Comment: 4 pages, 3 figure

Capturing UK real estate volitility

Volatility, or the variability of the underlying asset, is one of the key fundamental components of property derivative pricing and in the application of real option models in development analysis. There has been relatively little work on volatility in real terms of its application to property derivatives and the real options analysis. Most research on volatility stems from investment performance (Nathakumaran & Newell (1995), Brown & Matysiak 2000, Booth & Matysiak 2001). Historic standard deviation is often used as a proxy for volatility and there has been a reliance on indices, which are subject to valuation smoothing effects. Transaction prices are considered to be more volatile than the traditional standard deviations of appraisal based indices. This could lead, arguably, to inefficiencies and mis-pricing, particularly if it is also accepted that changes evolve randomly over time and where future volatility and not an ex-post measure is the key (Sing 1998). If history does not repeat, or provides an unreliable measure, then estimating model based (implied) volatility is an alternative approach (Patel & Sing 2000). This paper is the first of two that employ alternative approaches to calculating and capturing volatility in UK real estate for the purposes of applying the measure to derivative pricing and real option models. It draws on a uniquely constructed IPD/Gerald Eve transactions database, containing over 21,000 properties over the period 1983-2005. In this first paper the magnitude of historic amplification associated with asset returns by sector and geographic spread is looked at. In the subsequent paper the focus will be upon model based (implied) volatility

Heating and cooling system

A heating and cooling apparatus capable of cyclic heating and cooling of a test specimen undergoing fatigue testing is discussed. Cryogenic fluid is passed through a block clamped to the speciment to cool the block and the specimen. Heating cartridges penetrate the block to heat the block and the specimen to very hot temperaures. Control apparatus is provided to alternatively activate the cooling and heating modes to effect cyclic heating and cooling between very hot and very cold temperatures. The block is constructed of minimal mass to facilitate the rapid temperature changes

Apparatus and method of capturing an orbiting spacecraft

Apparatus and a method of capturing an orbiting spacecraft by attaching a grapple fixture are discussed. A probe is inserted into an opening, such as a rocket nozzle, in the spacecraft until a stop on the prove mechanism contacts the spacecraft. A lever is actuated releasing a spring loaded rod which moves axially along the probe removing a covering sleeve to expose spring loaded toffle fingers which pivot open engaging the side of the opening. The probe is shortened and tensioned by turning a screw thread, pressing the fingers inside of the opening to compress the spacecraft between the toggle fingers and the stop. A grapple fixture attached to the probe, which is thus secured to the spacecraft, is engaged by appropriate retrieval means such as a remote manipulator arm