Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We employ an empirical model, verified with the evolution of the number of confirmed cases in previous countries where the epidemic is close to conclude, including all provinces of China. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-10 days later. The model and predictions are based on two parameters that are daily fitted to available data: a: the velocity at which spreading specific rate slows down; the higher the value, the better the control. K: the final number of expected cumulated cases, which cannot be evaluated at the initial stages because growth is still exponential. We show an individual report with 8 graphs and a table with the short-term predictions for different countries and regions. We are adjusting the model to countries and regions with at least 4 days with more than 100 confirmed cases and a current load over 200 cases. The predicted period of a country depends on the number of datapoints over this 100 cases threshold, and is of 5 days for those that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 10 consecutive days or more. For short-term predictions, we assign higher weight to last 3 points in the fittings, so that changes are rapidly captured by the model. The whole methodology employed in the inform is explained in the last pages of this document. In addition to the individual reports, the reader will find an initial dashboard with a brief analysis of the situation in EU-EFTA-UK countries, some summary figures and tables as well as long-term predictions for some of them, when possible. These long-term predictions are evaluated without different weights to datapoints. We also discuss a specific issue every day.These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00Postprint (published version

Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID-19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We employ an empirical model, verified with the evolution of the number of confirmed cases in previous countries where the epidemic is close to conclude, including all provinces of China. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-10 days later. The model and predictions are based on two parameters that are daily fitted to available data: a: the velocity at which spreading specific rate slows down; the higher the value, the better the control. K: the final number of expected cumulated cases, which cannot be evaluated at the initial stages because growth is still exponential. We show an individual report with 8 graphs and a table with the short-term predictions for different countries and regions. We are adjusting the model to countries and regions with at least 4 days with more than 100 confirmed cases and a current load over 200 cases. The predicted period of a country depends on the number of datapoints over this 100 cases threshold, and is of 5 days for those that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 10 consecutive days or more. For short-term predictions, we assign higher weight to last 3 points in the fittings, so that changes are rapidly captured by the model. The whole methodology employed in the inform is explained in the last pages of this document. In addition to the individual reports, the reader will find an initial dashboard with a brief analysis of the situation in EU-EFTA-UK countries, some summary figures and tables as well as long-term predictions for some of them, when possible. These long-term predictions are evaluated without different weights to datapoints. We also discuss a specific issue every day.These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00Postprint (published version

Analysis and prediction of COVID-19 for EU-EFTA-UK and other countries

The present report aims to provide a comprehensive picture of the pandemic situation of COVID‐19 in the EU countries, and to be able to foresee the situation in the next coming days. We employ an empirical model, verified with the evolution of the number of confirmed cases in previous countries where the epidemic is close to conclude, including all provinces of China. The model does not pretend to interpret the causes of the evolution of the cases but to permit the evaluation of the quality of control measures made in each state and a short-term prediction of trends. Note, however, that the effects of the measures’ control that start on a given day are not observed until approximately 7-10 days later. The model and predictions are based on two parameters that are daily fitted to available data: a: the velocity at which spreading specific rate slows down; the higher the value, the better the control. K: the final number of expected cumulated cases, which cannot be evaluated at the initial stages because growth is still exponential. We show an individual report with 8 graphs and a table with the short-term predictions for different countries and regions. We are adjusting the model to countries and regions with at least 4 days with more than 100 confirmed cases and a current load over 200 cases. The predicted period of a country depends on the number of datapoints over this 100 cases threshold, and is of 5 days for those that have reported more than 100 cumulated cases for 10 consecutive days or more. For short-term predictions, we assign higher weight to last 3 points in the fittings, so that changes are rapidly captured by the model. The whole methodology employed in the inform is explained in the last pages of this document. In addition to the individual reports, the reader will find an initial dashboard with a brief analysis of the situation in EU-EFTA-UK countries, some summary figures and tables as well as long-term predictions for some of them, when possible. These long-term predictions are evaluated without different weights to datapoints. We also discuss a specific issue every day.These reports are funded by the European Commission (DG CONNECT, LC-01485746) PJC and MC received funding from “la Caixa” Foundation (ID 100010434), under agreement LCF/PR/GN17/50300003; CP, DL, SA, MC, received funding from Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovación y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00Postprint (published version

Evaluación del impacto del uso de dispositivos de radio definida por software como herramienta docente en la materia de comunicaciones digitales

La innovación educativa es un proceso que se extiende más allá de un año académico. En su desarrollo se distinguen las etapas de planificación, implementación, evaluación y retroalimentación para identificar los aspectos susceptibles de mejora. En esta contribución, presentamos un procedimiento para evaluar el impacto del uso de dispositivos de radio definidos por software en los laboratorios de comunicaciones digitales. Este procedimiento evalúa el compromiso de los estudiantes, además se implementan sesiones de laboratorio más realistas que se acercan a los sistemas de comunicaciones actuales y se alejan de las prácticas de simulación estándar. Se cuantifica el compromiso de los estudiantes, comparando los resultados de un grupo experimental con dos grupos de control que han continuado con las sesiones simuladas estándar. Los resultados indican que el impacto ha sido positivo en la capacidad de los alumnos para afrontar nuevos retos y en su percepción de la relevancia de las actividades que realizan, aunque esta mejora no se refleja en su capacidad de concentración.UV-SFPIE PID19-1097673Educational innovation is a process that extends beyond an academic year. In its development, the stages of planning, implementation, evaluation and feedback are distinguished in order to identify aspects that could be improved. In this contribution, we present a procedure for evaluating the impact of the use of software-defined radio devices in digital communications laboratories. This procedure evaluates the students' engagement, following more realistic laboratory sessions that are closer to current communications systems and far from standard simulation practices. The engagement of the students is quantified, comparing the results of an experimental group with two control groups that have continued with the standard simulated sessions. The results indicate that the impact has been positive on the students' ability to face new challenges and on their perception of the relevance of the activities they carry out, although this improvement is not reflected in their ability to focus on them

Low transmission of SARS-CoV-2 derived from children in family clusters: An observational study of family households in the Barcelona Metropolitan Area, Spain

Background: Family clusters offer a good opportunity to study viral transmission in a stable setting. We aimed to analyze the specific role of children in transmission of SARS-CoV-2 within households. Methods: A prospective, longitudinal, observational study, including children with documented acute SARS-CoV-2 infection attending 22 summer-schools in Barcelona, Spain, was performed. Moreover, other patients and families coming from other school-like environments that voluntarily accessed the study were also studied. A longitudinal follow-up (5 weeks) of the family clusters was conducted to determine whether the children considered to be primary cases were able to transmit the virus to other family members. The household reproduction number (Re*) and the secondary attack rate (SAR) were calculated. Results: 1905 children from the summer schools were screened for SARS-CoV-2 infection and 22 (1.15%) tested positive. Moreover, 32 additional children accessed the study voluntarily. Of these, 37 children and their 26 households were studied completely. In half of the cases (13/26), the primary case was considered to be a child and secondary transmission to other members of the household was observed in 3/13, with a SAR of 14.2% and a Re* of 0.46. Conversely, the SAR of adult primary cases was 72.2% including the kids that gave rise to the contact tracing study, and 61.5% without them, and the estimated Re* was 2.6. In 4/13 of the paediatric primary cases (30.0%), nasopharyngeal PCR was persistently positive > 1 week after diagnosis, and 3/4 of these children infected another family member (p<0.01). Conclusions: Children may not be the main drivers of the infection in household transmission clusters in the study population. A prolonged positive PCR could be associated with higher transmissibility.Peer ReviewedObjectius de Desenvolupament Sostenible::3 - Salut i BenestarPostprint (published version

A comprehensive biomarker analysis of microsatellite unstable/mismatch repair deficient colorectal cancer cohort treated with immunotherapy

The search for immunotherapy biomarkers in Microsatellite Instability High/Deficient Mismatch Repair system (MSI-H/dMMR) metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC) is an unmet need. Sixteen patients with mCRC and MSI-H/dMMR (determined by either immunohistochemistry or polymerase chain reaction) treated with PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors at our institution were included. According to whether the progression-free survival with PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors was longer than 6 months or shorter, patients were clustered into the IT-responder group (n: 9 patients) or IT-resistant group (n: 7 patients), respectively. In order to evaluate determinants of benefit with PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors, we performed multimodal analysis including genomics (through NGS panel tumour-only with 431 genes) and the immune microenvironment (using CD3, CD8, FOXP3 and PD-L1 antibodies). The following mutations were more frequent in IT-resistant compared with IT-responder groups: B2M (4/7 versus 2/9), CTNNB1 (2/7 versus 0/9), and biallelic PTEN (3/7 versus 1/9). Biallelic ARID1A mutations were found exclusively in the IT-responder group (4/9 patients). Tumour mutational burden did not correlate with immunotherapy benefit, neither the rate of indels in homopolymeric regions. Of note, biallelic ARID1A mutated tumours had the highest immune infiltration and PD-L1 scores, contrary to tumours with CTNNB1 mutation. Immune microenvironment analysis showed higher densities of different T cell subpopulations and PD-L1 expression in IT-responders. Misdiagnosis of MSI-H/dMMR inferred by discordances between immunohistochemistry and polymerase chain reaction was only found in the IT-resistant population (3/7 patients). Biallelic ARID1A mutations and Wnt signalling activation through CTNNB1 mutation were associated with high and low T cell immune infiltrates, respectively, and deserve special attention as determinants of response to PD-1/PD-L1 inhibitors. The non-MSI-H phenotype in dMMR is associated with poor benefit to immunotherapy. Our results suggest that mechanisms of resistance to immunotherapy are multi-factorial

Multicenter study of plastic vs. self-expanding metal stents in endoscopic ultrasound-guided drainage of walled-off pancreatic necrosis - PROMETHEUS: a randomized controlled trial protocol.

Background: It seems that lumen-apposing metal stents (LAMS) are displacing plastic stents in the therapy of pancreatic-fluid collection in walled-off necrosis (WON). To date, there is no quality of evidence to recommend LAMS as the standard treatment in the management of WON. The theoretical benefit of LAMS over plastic stents needs to be proven. Methods/design: This is a randomized controlled, multicenter, prospective clinical trial with two parallel groups, without masking. One-hundred and fourteen patients with WON will undergo endoscopic ultrasound (EUS)-guided transmural draining in nine tertiary hospitals in Spain and will be randomized to the LAMS or plastic-stent group. The primary endpoint is the short-term (4 weeks) clinical success determined by the reduction of the collection (to < 50% or < 5 cm in size), along with clinical improvement. Secondary endpoints: long-term (4 months) clinical success (total resolution or 5 cm), procedure duration, level of difficulty, safety, and recurrences. Discussion: The PROMETHEUS trial has been designed to determine whether LAMS are superior to plastic stents in EUS-guided transmural drainage of WON

Impact of circulating tumor DNA mutant allele fraction on prognosis in RAS-mutant metastatic colorectal cancer

Despite major advances in the treatment of metastatic colorectal cancer (mCRC), the survival rate remains very poor. This study aims at exploring the prognostic value of RAS-mutant allele fraction (MAF) in plasma in mCRC. Forty-seven plasma samples from 37 RAS-mutated patients with nonresectable metastases were tested for RAS in circulating tumor DNA using BEAMing before first- and/or second-line treatment. RAS MAF was correlated with several clinical parameters (number of metastatic sites, hepatic volume, carcinoembryonic antigen, CA19-9 levels, primary site location, and treatment line) and clinical outcome [progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS)]. An independent cohort of 32 patients from the CAPRI-GOIM trial was assessed for clinical outcome based on plasma baseline MAF. RAS MAF analysis at baseline revealed a significant correlation with longer OS [Hazard ratios (HR) = 3.514; P = 0.00066]. Patients with lower MAF also showed a tendency to longer PFS, although not statistically significant. Multivariate analysis showed RAS MAFs as an independent prognostic factor in both OS (HR = 2.73; P = 0.006) and first-line PFS (HR = 3.74; P = 0.049). Tumor response to treatment in patients with higher MAF was progression disease (P = 0.007). Patients with low MAFs at baseline in the CAPRI-GOIM group also showed better OS [HR = 3.84; 95% confidence intervals (CI) 1.5-9.6; P = 0.004] and better PFS (HR = 2.5; 95% CI: 1.07-5.62; P = 0.033). This minimally invasive test may help in adding an independent factor to better estimate outcomes before initiating treatment. Further prospective studies using MAF as a stratification factor could further validate its utility in clinical practice