Universal stowage module for future space exploration, design drawings

For abstract, see N74-20534. For complete abstract, see

The Linkage Between Speculative Attack and Target Zone Models of Exchange Rates

In this paper we generalize the target zone exchange rate as model formalized by Krugman (1988b) to include finite-sized interventions in defense of the zone. The main contributions of these pages consist of linking the recent developments in the theory of target zones to the mirror-image theory of speculative attacks on asset price fixing regimes and in using aspects of that linkage to give an intuitive interpretation to the smooth pasting" condition usually invoked as a terminal condition.

A Systematic Banking Collapse in a Perfect Foresight World

In this paper we present a model in which a systematic banking collapse is possible in a perfect foresight, general equilibrium context. Our aim is to determine con3itions under which a collapse will eventually occur and the timing of such a collapse. The collapse can occur endogenously, driven by market fundamentals. Alternatively, it can be caused by a mass hysteria which generates itself in reality. Vie also compare the assumptions and implications of our model to the observable phenomena of the 1930's.

Process Consistency and Monetary Reform: Further Evidence and Implications

In this paper we provide additional evidence that process consistency may have materialized as a restrictive constraint on the money generation process. In addition to recomputing the time series of process consistency probabilities using new data from the German case, we also supply our empirical technique to the data from the other hyperinflations studied by Cagan. We interpret our results as evidence hearing on the type of transversality condition studied by Brock or by Brock and Scheinkman as a sufficient condition to insure a unique equilibrium in optimizing models with perfect foresight and money.

Gold Monetization and Gold Discipline

The paper is a study of the price level and relative price effects of a policy to monetize gold and fix its price at a given future time and at the then prevailing nominal price. Price movements are analyzed both during the transition to the gold standard and during the post-monetization period. The paper also explores the adjustments to fiat money which are necessary to ensure that this type of gold monetization is non-inflationary. Finally, some conditions which produce a run on the government's gold stock leading to the collapse of the gold standard and the timing of such a run are examined.

Costs and Benefits of Prenatal Screening For Cystic Fibrosis

Newly-developed genetic tests based on restriction fragment length polymorphisms (RFLPs) promise to facilitate the early detection of genetic diseases. Several such tests are now available for the prenatal detection of cystic fibrosis (CF), a common and costly disease. The tests for CF are currently limited to prenatal diagnosis in siblings of a victim of CF. Direct gene probe tests, which have yet to be developed for CF, would be applicable even in families that have not already borne a child with the disease. We examine the costs and benefits of prenatal testing for cystic fibrosis using existing RFLP-based tests and using a hypothetical direct gene probe test. We find that even an expensive RAPbased testing program produces substantial net benefits, because it is applied in pregnancies in which the risk of CF is 25%. If a direct gene probe test is applied in all pregnancies, it will need to be much less expensive to generate net benefits, and it will lead to the abortion of many normal fetuses unless it is highly specific. Because these new tests are likely to generate substantial savings in medical expenditures and to increase lifetime earnings, parents of CF-affected children may be subjected to strong pressures to participate in prenatal testing programs and to abort fetuses that test positive. It is imperative that the ethical dilemmas arising from this promising screening test be discussed openly before it becomes widely available.

Three Large-Scale Changes To The Medicare Program Could Curb Its Costs But Also Reduce Enrollment

With Medicare spending projected to increase to 24 percent of all federal spending and to equal 6 percent of the gross domestic product by 2037, policy makers are again considering ways to curb the program's spending growth. We used a microsimulation approach to estimate three scenarios: imposing a means-tested premium for Part A hospitalinsurance, introducing a premium support credit to purchase health insurance, and increasing the eligibility age to sixty-seven.We found thatthe scenarios would lead to reductions in cumulative Medicare spending in 2012 -- 36 of 2.4 -- 24.0 percent. However, the scenarios also would increase out-of-pocket spending for enrollees and, in some cases, causemillions of seniors not to enroll in the program and to be left without coverage. To achieve substantial cost savings without causing substantial lack of coverage among seniors, policy makers should consider benefitchanges in combination with other options, such as some of those now being contemplated by the Obama administration and Congress

Two Notes on Indeterminacy Problems

In this paper we show, in an example, that the arbitrary behavior which results in an indeterminacy in the time path of a flexible exchange rate and is associated with "badly behaved" speculation has a manifestation under a regime of fixed rates in an indeterminacy in the time path of government holding of international reserves. Thus, to the extent that arbitrariness is characteristic of agents' behavior it is not resolve6 but only masked by the fixing of exchange rates.

Interest Rates, Exchange Rates and International Adjustment

In this paper we examine the behavior of interest rates and exchange rates following a variety of shocks to the international monetary system. Our analysis suggests that real interest rates in the US and Europe will remain low relative to historical experience for an extended period but converge slowly toward normal levels. During this adjustment interval, the US absorbs a disproportionate share of world savings. After a substantial initial appreciation of floating currencies relative to the dollar, the dollar and other floating currencies remain constant relative to each other. An improvement in the investment climate in Europe during the adjustment period would generate an immediate depreciation of the euro relative to the dollar. In real terms, the dollar and the floating currencies will eventually have to depreciate relative to the managed currencies. But most of the adjustment in the US trade account will come as US absorption responds to increases in real interest rates.