How Damage Diversification Can Reduce Systemic Risk

We consider the problem of risk diversification in complex networks. Nodes represent e.g. financial actors, whereas weighted links represent e.g. financial obligations (credits/debts). Each node has a risk to fail because of losses resulting from defaulting neighbors, which may lead to large failure cascades. Classical risk diversification strategies usually neglect network effects and therefore suggest that risk can be reduced if possible losses (i.e., exposures) are split among many neighbors (exposure diversification, ED). But from a complex networks perspective diversification implies higher connectivity of the system as a whole which can also lead to increasing failure risk of a node. To cope with this, we propose a different strategy (damage diversification, DD), i.e. the diversification of losses that are imposed on neighboring nodes as opposed to losses incurred by the node itself. Here, we quantify the potential of DD to reduce systemic risk in comparison to ED. For this, we develop a branching process approximation that we generalize to weighted networks with (almost) arbitrary degree and weight distributions. This allows us to identify systemically relevant nodes in a network even if their directed weights differ strongly. On the macro level, we provide an analytical expression for the average cascade size, to quantify systemic risk. Furthermore, on the meso level we calculate failure probabilities of nodes conditional on their system relevance

Filtering of complex systems using overlapping tree networks

We introduce a technique that is capable to filter out information from complex systems, by mapping them to networks, and extracting a subgraph with the strongest links. This idea is based on the Minimum Spanning Tree, and it can be applied to sets of graphs that have as links different sets of interactions among the system's elements, which are described as network nodes. It can also be applied to correlation-based graphs, where the links are weighted and represent the correlation strength between all pairs of nodes. We applied this method to the European scientific collaboration network, which is composed of all the projects supported by the European Framework Program FP6, and also to the correlation-based network of the 100 highest capitalized stocks traded in the NYSE. For both cases we identified meaningful structures, such as a strongly interconnected community of countries that play important role in the collaboration network, and clusters of stocks belonging to different sectors of economic activity, which gives significant information about the investigated systems.Comment: 6 pages, 4 figure

Worldwide spreading of economic crisis

We model the spreading of a crisis by constructing a global economic network and applying the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) epidemic model with a variable probability of infection. The probability of infection depends on the strength of economic relations between the pair of countries, and the strength of the target country. It is expected that a crisis which originates in a large country, such as the USA, has the potential to spread globally, like the recent crisis. Surprisingly we show that also countries with much lower GDP, such as Belgium, are able to initiate a global crisis. Using the {\it k}-shell decomposition method to quantify the spreading power (of a node), we obtain a measure of ``centrality'' as a spreader of each country in the economic network. We thus rank the different countries according to the shell they belong to, and find the 12 most central countries. These countries are the most likely to spread a crisis globally. Of these 12 only six are large economies, while the other six are medium/small ones, a result that could not have been otherwise anticipated. Furthermore, we use our model to predict the crisis spreading potential of countries belonging to different shells according to the crisis magnitude.Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures and Supplementary Materia

The Swiss Board Directors Network in 2009

We study the networks formed by the directors of the most important Swiss boards and the boards themselves for the year 2009. The networks are obtained by projection from the original bipartite graph. We highlight a number of important statistical features of those networks such as degree distribution, weight distribution, and several centrality measures as well as their interrelationships. While similar statistics were already known for other board systems, and are comparable here, we have extended the study with a careful investigation of director and board centrality, a k-core analysis, and a simulation of the speed of information propagation and its relationships with the topological aspects of the network such as clustering and link weight and betweenness. The overall picture that emerges is one in which the topological structure of the Swiss board and director networks has evolved in such a way that special actors and links between actors play a fundamental role in the flow of information among distant parts of the network. This is shown in particular by the centrality measures and by the simulation of a simple epidemic process on the directors network.Comment: Submitted to The European Physical Journal

How big is too big? Critical Shocks for Systemic Failure Cascades

External or internal shocks may lead to the collapse of a system consisting of many agents. If the shock hits only one agent initially and causes it to fail, this can induce a cascade of failures among neighoring agents. Several critical constellations determine whether this cascade remains finite or reaches the size of the system, i.e. leads to systemic risk. We investigate the critical parameters for such cascades in a simple model, where agents are characterized by an individual threshold \theta_i determining their capacity to handle a load \alpha\theta_i with 1-\alpha being their safety margin. If agents fail, they redistribute their load equally to K neighboring agents in a regular network. For three different threshold distributions P(\theta), we derive analytical results for the size of the cascade, X(t), which is regarded as a measure of systemic risk, and the time when it stops. We focus on two different regimes, (i) EEE, an external extreme event where the size of the shock is of the order of the total capacity of the network, and (ii) RIE, a random internal event where the size of the shock is of the order of the capacity of an agent. We find that even for large extreme events that exceed the capacity of the network finite cascades are still possible, if a power-law threshold distribution is assumed. On the other hand, even small random fluctuations may lead to full cascades if critical conditions are met. Most importantly, we demonstrate that the size of the "big" shock is not the problem, as the systemic risk only varies slightly for changes of 10 to 50 percent of the external shock. Systemic risk depends much more on ingredients such as the network topology, the safety margin and the threshold distribution, which gives hints on how to reduce systemic risk.Comment: 23 pages, 7 Figure

The association of fat and other macronutrients with breast cancer: a case-control study from Greece.

The Greek diet is characterized by a high total fat but low saturated fat intake. In a hospital-based case-control study of female breast cancer conducted in Athens (1989-91), 820 patients with confirmed cancer of the breast were compared with 795 orthopaedic patient controls and 753 hospital visitor controls, matched to the cases by age and interviewer. Diet was ascertained through a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire; macronutrient intakes were estimated from the nutrient content of a selected typical portion size for each specified food item, summed for all items. Logistic regression was used to analyse the data, controlling for demographic and reproductive risk factors for breast cancer as well as for total energy intake and mutual confounding influences among nutrients. There was no significant or suggestive association of total protein, total fat, categories of fat or total carbohydrates with breast cancer risk. Thus, the mutually adjusted relative risk per quintile and (in parenthesis) 95% confidence interval were: for protein, 1.06 (0.94-1.20); saturated fat, 0.99 (0.89-1.11); monounsaturated fat, 0.97 (0.88-1.07), polyunsaturated fat, 1.05 (0.97-1.13); and total carbohydrates, 1.03 (0.94-1.12). In alternative analytical approaches only total protein appeared to be positively associated to the occurrence of breast cancer with some consistency, but the results were far from statistically significant. These findings do not support a role for fat or other energy-generating nutrients in the aetiology of breast cancer

Intrasession and Between-Visit Variability of Sector Peripapillary Angioflow Vessel Density Values Measured with the Angiovue Optical Coherence Tomograph in Different Retinal Layers in Ocular Hypertension and Glaucoma

PURPOSE: To evaluate intrasession and between-visit reproducibility of sector peripapillary angioflow vessel-density (PAFD, %) values in the optic nerve head (ONH) and radial peripapillary capillaries (RPC) layers, respectively, and to analyze the influence of the corresponding sector retinal nerve fiber layer thickness (RNFLT) on the results. METHODS: High quality images acquired with the Angiovue/RTVue-XR Avanti optical coherence tomograph (Optovue Inc., Fremont, USA) on 1 eye of 18 stable glaucoma and ocular hypertension patients were analyzed using the Optovue 2015.100.0.33 software version. Three images were acquired in one visit and 1 image 3 months later. RESULTS: PAFD image quality for all images necessary to calculate reproducibility was sufficient to analysis only in 18 of the 83 participants (21.7%) who were successfully imaged for RNFLT. Intrasession coefficient of variation (CV) ranged between 2.30 and 3.89%, and 3.51 and 5.12% for the peripapillary sectors in the ONH and RPC layers, respectively. The corresponding between-visit CV values ranged between 3.05 and 4.26%, and 4.99 and 6.90%, respectively. Intrasession SD did not correlate with the corresponding RNFLT in any sector in either layer (P>/=0.170). In the ONH layer sector PAFD values did not correlate with the corresponding RNFLT values (P>/=0.100). In contrast, in the RPC layer a significant positive correlation between the corresponding sector PAFD and RNFLT values was found for all but one peripapillary sectors (Pearson-r range: 0.652 to 0.771, P</=0.0046). CONCLUSION: Though in several patients routine use of PAFD measurement may be limited by suboptimal image quality, in the successfully imaged cases (21.7% of the study eyes in the current investigation) reproducibility of sector PAFD values seems to be sufficient for clinical research. In stable patients intrasession variability explains most of the between-visit variability. Sector PAFD variability is independent from sector RNFLT, a marker of glaucoma severity. In the RPC layer sector PAFD and RNFLT show strong to very strong positive correlation

Long term methylphenidate exposure and growth in children and adolescents with ADHD. A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND: Methylphenidate (MPH) is an efficacious treatment for ADHD but concerns have been raised about potential adverse effects of extended treatment on growth.OBJECTIVES: To systematically review the literature, up to December 2018, conducting a meta-analysis of association of long-term (&gt; six months) MPH exposure with height, weight and timing of puberty.RESULTS: Eighteen studies (ADHD n = 4868) were included in the meta-analysis. MPH was associated with consistent statistically significant pre-post difference for both height (SMD = 0.27, 95% CI 0.16-0.38, p &lt; 0.0001) and weight (SMD = 0.33, 95% CI 0.22-0.44, p &lt; 0.0001) Z scores, with prominent impact on weight during the first 12 months and on height within the first 24-30 months. No significant effects of dose, formulation, age and drug-naïve condition as clinical moderators were found. Data on timing of puberty are currently limited.CONCLUSIONS: Long-term treatment with MPH can result in reduction in height and weight. However, effect sizes are small with possible minimal clinical impact. Long-term prospective studies may help to clarify the underlying biological drivers and specific mediators and moderators.</p

Mammography screening: views from women and primary care physicians in Crete

Background: Breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women and a leading cause of death from cancer in women in Europe. Although breast cancer incidence is on the rise worldwide, breast cancer mortality over the past 25 years has been stable or decreasing in some countries and a fall in breast cancer mortality rates in most European countries in the 1990s was reported by several studies, in contrast, in Greece have not reported these favourable trends. In Greece, the age-standardised incidence and mortality rate for breast cancer per 100.000 in 2006 was 81,8 and 21,7 and although it is lower than most other countries in Europe, the fall in breast cancer mortality that observed has not been as great as in other European countries. There is no national strategy for screening in this country. This study reports on the use of mammography among middleaged women in rural Crete and investigates barriers to mammography screening encountered by women and their primary care physicians. Methods: Design: Semi-structured individual interviews. Setting and participants: Thirty women between 45–65 years of age, with a mean age of 54,6 years, and standard deviation 6,8 from rural areas of Crete and 28 qualified primary care physicians, with a mean age of 44,7 years and standard deviation 7,0 serving this rural population. Main outcome measure: Qualitative thematic analysis. Results: Most women identified several reasons for not using mammography. These included poor knowledge of the benefits and indications for mammography screening, fear of pain during the procedure, fear of a serious diagnosis, embarrassment, stress while anticipating the results, cost and lack of physician recommendation. Physicians identified difficulties in scheduling an appointment as one reason women did not use mammography and both women and physicians identified distance from the screening site, transportation problems and the absence of symptoms as reasons for non-use. Conclusion: Women are inhibited from participating in mammography screening in rural Crete. The provision of more accessible screening services may improve this. However physician recommendation is important in overcoming women's inhibitions. Primary care physicians serving rural areas need to be aware of barriers preventing women from attending mammography screening and provide women with information and advice in a sensitive way so women can make informed decisions regarding breast caner screening